"We will judge by deeds, not just by words," Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf said after meeting on Friday with Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria's new leader. "Deeds are the critical thing."
This was the first meeting between Syria's new leaders and an official American delegation. It was a cautious meeting, spiced with a bit of patronization. There was no photo op and no presidential palace; instead, it was held in a Damascus hotel.
The caution is seemingly warranted. Al-Sharaa and his militia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, are still on the international list of terrorist organizations, and he himself has a $10 million price on his head thanks to his past as one of the founders of the Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaida. Even a UN report released in July still listed HTS as a terrorist organization, and so does the American government.
But at the same time, the competition to shake Al-Sharaa's hand and acquire influence over Syrian policy is currently at its height, to the point that his terrorist designation has become irrelevant. Al-Sharaa already enjoys full legitimacy.
The U.S. government is considering canceling the price on his head and removing HTS from its list of terrorist organizations; France has already raised the flag over its embassy in Damascus; and other Western countries will follow suit.
Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf, in Bahrain, earlier this month.Credit: Mazen Mahdi / AFP
Al-Sharaa's biography as a radical Islamist is well-known and still clings to him despite his break with the Nusra Front in 2016 and his establishment of HTS, whose main goal, according to him, was "to fight the regime and its agents, including Hezbollah and others."
Rivals who opposed the split with Al-Qaida and refused to join the new organization accused him back then of abandoning the religious ideology that seeks to establish a united Muslim nation, Dar al-Islam, in favor of nationalism, which they viewed as a colonialist Western ideology whose goal was to divide the Arab nation into nation-states so the West could rule control them.
But it evidently wasn't the ideological disagreement alone that led Al-Sharaa to split with Al-Qaida.
Back then, the international war against the Islamic State was taking place simultaneously with a bloody civic uprising against Syria's Assad regime. Membership in Al-Qaida thus placed Al-Sharaa, then know by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, and his new militia in existential danger.
According to reports at the time, Saudi Arabia and Qatar therefore advised him to separate from Al-Qaida so he could participate in diplomatic efforts to find a political solution for Syria. More importantly, they promised him generous financial aid to replace the money he got from Al-Qaida.
Nor were Qatar and Saudi Arabia alone. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who used to be Turkey's intelligence chief, revealed that he cooperated with HTS for years to gather information about the Islamic State and Al-Qaida.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Damascus, on Sunday.Credit: AFP
Al-Sharaa's pragmatic decision didn't pass easily in his own organization. He had to wage a violent battle against rivals both within HTS, which had brought other Islamist militias into its ranks, and outside groups like Al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
Al-Sharaa didn't hesitate to arrest, and apparently also kill, anyone he suspected of subversiveness, even when they were close friends who had been with him from the beginning, like Abu Maria al-Qahtani, who was responsible for the organization's ties with other groups and countries.
Al-Qahtani was killed in a suicide bombing in April after spending six months in an HTS prison on charges of "contact with foreigners." But the real suspicion against him, the one that apparently led to his death, was his intent to work against Al-Sharaa and ultimately replace him.
Al-Sharaa also didn't hesitate to arrest hundreds of people, including members of the militias comprising HTS, if he thought they threatened his exclusive management of the military struggle or had voiced opposition to his management of the Idlib district, which became the home base of most of Syria's armed militias.
But in contrast to his hardline management of Idlib's economy – which sparked numerous civilian protests against the heavy economic burden imposed by the "salvation government," the civilian body that managed the district on HTS' behalf – Al-Sharaa avoided religious conflicts.
Granted, he established a Supreme Fatwa Council that was the ultimate arbiter of religious behavior, while Idlib's school system was swiftly and ruthlessly Islamized. But senior HTS officials said the Fatwa Council and the religious studies were meant to prevent more radical organizations like the Islamic State and Al-Qaida from influencing Idlib residents' education and lifestyle.
Al-Sharaa isn't waiting for the results of the U.S. administration's verdict on his deeds. After all, that same administration had no problem negotiating and signing agreements with the Taliban, sponsoring a cease-fire agreement between Israel and a Lebanese government of which Hezbollah is a member.
christmas celebrations in Damascus, on Sunday.Credit: Anwar Amro / AFP
It also engaged in diplomatic and military cooperation with an Iraqi government that includes the bosses of pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias, or removing the Houthis from its list of foreign terrorist organizations three years ago (they were restored to the list this year because of their attacks on Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea).
Al-Sharaa has already begun outlining the basics of his diplomatic and political strategy, which prioritizes ties with Turkey but without neglecting relations with pro-Western Arab countries.
The appointments of Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, who was responsible for HTS' foreign relations in Idlib, as foreign minister and of Murhaf Abu Qasra as defense minister indicate that he seeks to create ties with numerous countries to drum up aid for rebuilding his country, get the sanctions on Syria removed and create a Syrian army into which all the militias would be integrated.
"There will be no arms except the state's in Syria," he declared. As for the country's character, this will be determined through a "national dialogue." He has already begun inviting prominent Syrians to participate, including exiled intellectuals and leaders of various religious communities.
But right now, all those goals look impossible to achieve. It's enough to consider the list of armed militias, Syrians' deep distrust of a man many view as a religious radical, the violent clashes still taking place in Syria – not only between the Kurds and Turkish forces, but also between tribal militias in the east – and the fact that the Islamic State is still making sporadic appearances to understand that toppling the Assad regime was just the beginning, and the easiest part, of his campaign to take over Syria.