Ethiopia-Somalia talks: Blinken call prompted Abiy Ahmed’s trip to Ankara
The Turkish government has spent the past year attempting to mediate a crisis between Somalia and Ethiopia, sparked by Ethiopia's decision to sign a naval agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway state.
After two rounds of unsuccessful negotiations, Turkish officials invited Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Ankara earlier this month for direct talks.
However, Somali and Turkish officials were uncertain whether Abiy would attend despite his close ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was Erdogan's decision to sell armed drones to Ethiopia in 2021 that helped Abiy repel Tigray forces and secure the Ethiopian capital.
The core issue was a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in January between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The agreement granted Ethiopia access to Somaliland's coastline for the next 50 years.Somalia viewed the MOU as a potential recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty and threatened military action to safeguard its territorial integrity. Ethiopia, on the other hand, argued that, as a landlocked country, it had the right to sea access under international law.
On 11 December, Abiy did indeed arrive in Ankara. After seven hours of intense negotiations, he and Mohamud signed the "Ankara Declaration", a joint memorandum that effectively resolved their dispute. The declaration affirmed Somalia's territorial integrity and initiated discussions on granting Ethiopia sea access through Somalia's coast.
What prompted Abiy to reconsider and attend the Ankara summit? Two people familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that Washington played a pivotal role in encouraging Abiy to participate.
According to these people, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a private call to Abiy before his departure, urging him to attend. The last publicly recorded phone call between Blinken and Abiy occurred in November, and there is no official record of a December conversation.
A Turkish official acknowledged western efforts to persuade Abiy to join the Ankara talks but declined to comment on Blinken's alleged call. A US State Department spokesperson told MEE that Washington does not comment on private conversations.
However, the spokesperson added: "As Secretary Blinken noted in his December 12 statement, we welcome the Ankara Declaration and look forward to a peaceful and prosperous future between Ethiopia and Somalia."
MEE reached out to Abiy's spokesperson, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
Ibrahim Mulushewa, the executive director of the Center for National and Regional Integration Studies (CeNRIS) in Addis Ababa, expressed scepticism about whether the US forced Abiy to attend the summit. However, he acknowledged that both the EU and the US were dissatisfied with Ethiopia's unilateral move to secure sea access without involving Somalia.
"If that is the case, logically, the US can be seen as a contributor to the agreement," he said. "The Ankara Declaration, in my opinion, should first and foremost be understood as a successful mediation effort by Turkey as a neutral mediator. Secondly, both Ethiopia and Somalia needed a resolution as they are under pressure from internal and external challenges."
A Turkish official emphasised that Erdogan's personal invitation to the talks played a central role in convincing Abiy to attend.