Benjamin Netanyahu opposes a deal with Hamas to secure the hostages' release in exchange for ending the war and withdrawing the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip.
The prime minister defends his position by citing the need to fight until Hamas is dismantled. However, the prevailing interpretation attributes his stance to political considerations: Netanyahu fears Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any deal and have threatened to dissolve the coalition.
This would trigger an early election that, according to recent polls, Netanyahu would lose. The "good guys" in this story are the heads of the defense establishment, who apparently want the hostages released but are powerless to facilitate that, given the opposition of the prime minister and the bad guys backing him.
This narrative serves the image of both sides in the eyes of their supporters. Netanyahu can accuse the military and intelligence chiefs of defeatism and capitulation to Hamas, in contrast to his supposed firm, patriotic stance.
They, for their part, can portray the prime minister as a wimp who allows himself to be extorted by the true leaders of the state, ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.
Actions on the ground, however, raise significant doubts about this narrative.
The war effort is continuing in two main arenas – the northern Gaza Strip and Yemen. In Gaza, Israel is acting to ethnically cleanse and physically destroy Palestinian communities, in order to prepare the area for annexation and perhaps also for settlement – the ultimate punishment for Hamas for the October 7 massacre.
In this regard, there is no disagreement between Netanyahu, who maintains ambiguity regarding northern Gaza, and the military, which invites reporters to observe the destruction of Jabalya and the consolidation of its forces in the so-called "Netzarim corridor," an area roughly the size of Tel Aviv.
In the Yemeni arena too, there is no daylight between Netanyahu and senior Israel Defense Forces officials. Everyone is in favor of escalation, and everyone explains that the Israel Air Force bombardments in Yemen are only training exercises for the biggest operation of all, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Generations of pilots, intelligence officers, operational planners and politicians have prepared for this mission, and now it seems there is a one-time opportunity to carry it out.
The flight path to Natanz and Fordow is wide open, after the obstacles in the way have been removed: Iranian air defenses have been destroyed, the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have announced a cease-fire with Israel.
Israel is waiting only for arms deliveries and the go-ahead from Donald Trump, and perhaps even from Joe Biden – as a farewell gift.
A hostage deal, which would halt the war, would disrupt both these plans. The devastated Gaza Strip would be returned to the Palestinians and the IDF would redeploy along the October 6 border, without annexation or settlement.
And if the Houthis were simultaneously to hold their fire and lift the naval blockade of Eilat, Israel would struggle to justify attacking Iran, especially if the resulting quiet revives diplomatic efforts toward an agreement between Tehran and the West.
But as long as the hostages are in Gaza, Israel can continue to fight, tighten its grip on the northern Strip and hope for American approval to strike Iran.
For this reason, Netanyahu is offering Hamas an alternative deal: The organization can continue to hold some of the hostages and maintain its control over southern Gaza, in exchange for the loss of the territory from the Netzarim corridor northward, which will remain in Israel's hands.
Hamas will have to protect and take care of the remaining hostages, its last remaining assets, in order to survive. For now, the organization is rejecting the offer.
The war enjoys a popularity among Israeli Jews that has only intensified since Hezbollah's surrender and Assad's fall. The military and Netanyahu quarrel over credit for the accomplishments, but despite their well-publicized spats, they are operating in harmony in the northern Gaza Strip and in Yemen and are preparing for the mother of all operations in Iran.
And as long as this is the situation, the suffering hostages will continue to be pushed to the end of the line.