Arab countries, including the oil-rich Gulf states, have expressed their support for the new administration in Syria but are proceeding cautiously as they balance their own interests and the need to avert any further fighting there that could stoke instability.
In a bid to quell such fears, Syria’s leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who led the Turkish-backed Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), held meetings with various officials from regional and international governments over the past two weeks.
He has assumed a conciliatory tone, calling for political inclusion and the shunning of extremism while also stressing the need to focus on economic development and rebuilding the country.
This has helped paved the way for the US to remove the $10 million bounty placed on al-Sharaa when he was previously affiliated with an Al-Qaeda group.
Al-Sharaa has given "a lot of comforting signals," a prominent businessman close to the Saudi Royal Palace told Energy Intelligence. While the kingdom wants to see a stable Syria, he said it will most likely adhere to a wait-and-see policy.
"The last thing anyone wants in the Gulf for now is an Islamist government," he said.
To be sure, governing a fragmented and broken Syria will not be easy. With reconstruction costs ranging between $250 billion and $400 billion, according to figures from the Carnegie Middle East Center, the new leadership of the country will need all the help it can get.
Balancing of Interests
The fall of Bashar al-Assad is viewed in a cautiously positive manner by Gulf states because it weakens Iran and its axis that extends to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, said some Western analysts.
But dealing with Syria will require Gulf countries to balance their interests or risk being marginalized, said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
“Turkey and Qatar will get first consideration from Sharaa’s government,” Landis told Energy Intelligence.
“But Saudi and the other Gulf countries will want to compete. Their main concern will be that Syria not become fertile ground for Saudi or UAE [United Arab Emirates] opposition elements to foment anti-government propaganda,” Landis said.
Restoring confidence through a political process that ushers in stability is key to Syria’s ability to attract the investment needed to rebuild.
Thus far, al-Sharaa has kept many of Syria’s existing institutions, including the majority of its military personnel, in place.
Analysts say the new government looks keen to avoid a key mistake the US made when it disbanded the Iraqi army and intelligence services and purged Baathists from the government after Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown in 2003, stoking sectarian violence and instability there.
This week, al-Assad loyalists killed at least 14 interior ministry troops of the new transitional authority and wounded 10 others in an ambush in Tartous, in western Syria.
Iran's Orbit
Equally important for al-Sharaa and Arab states, analysts said, is preventing the return of Syria into the orbit of Iran and ensuring its future government isn't influenced by Tehran.
But Iranian officials have shown they will not passively relinquish their past sway over the country.
"The youth and the resistant nation of Syria will not remain silent against the foreign occupation and aggression and internal totalitarianism of a group," Major General Mohsen Rezaei, former chief commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, wrote in a post on social media site X.
"In less than a year, Syrians will revive the resistance in their country in a different way and neutralize the evil and deceitful plan of the US, the Zionist regime and the countries that have played games in the region," Rezaei added.
On Sunday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Syrian youth to "stand firmly and resolutely against those who planned and executed this chaos," referring to the toppling of the Al-Assad regime.
That led to Asaad al-Shaibani, the foreign minister of the interim Syrian government, to issue a stern warning to Iran about not interfering in his country or inciting instability.
“Iran must respect the will of the Syrian people, the sovereignty of the nation and its territorial integrity. We caution them against spreading chaos in Syria and hold them accountable for their recent remarks,” al-Shaibani wrote on X.
Israel and the Kurds
Another issue is Israel’s encroachment on Syrian territory in violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Israel, which already occupies the Golan Heights, seized more territory after the Al-Assad regime's collapse.
The US endorsed Israel’s claim to sovereignty over the area in 2019, but this has not been recognized by the international community.
Israel’s expansion has irked Gulf states, including signatories to the Abraham Accords. The foreign ministers of the six countries met in Kuwait on Thursday and issued a statement condemning repeated Israeli attacks on Syria, its occupation of the demilitarized zone on the Syrian border and the decision of its government to expand the construction of settlements in the occupied Golan Heights, which they said "flagrantly violate" international laws, UN Security Council resolutions and the country’s sovereignty.
Another key question is the composition of the future Syrian state. Turkey, in particular, is worried that Syria may develop a similar structure as Iraq, with a semiautonomous Kurdish region.
As in the northern part of Iraq, which accounts for a significant chunk of the Opec producer’s oil production, Syria's oil fields lie under control of the US-backed Syrian Kurds.
Landis believes the risk of an emergence of a semiautonomous Kurdish region in Syria is slim, however.
"Turkey and Jolani will not allow an independent Kurdish army in northeast Syria. It is not part of the constitution, as [it is] in Iraq," he said.
In a Dec. 22 joint press conference with al-Sharaa, Turkey Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Syria’s territorial integrity is "non-negotiable" and said the Kurdish PKK-YPG “must dissolve itself immediately."
Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian scholar, shares Landis’ assessment regarding the opposition to a Kurdish region and Saudi Arabia's concern with seeing a stable Syria that doesn’t potentially threaten regional countries.
"Whilst the Gulf could be interested in making some investments in the country to increase its influence, the role that HTS is currently playing may be an obstacle to this, as it is perceived negatively by numerous regional states," he told Energy Intelligence.
Sanctions Challenge
In addition, sanctions against Syria and HTS still have not been lifted, Daher stressed.
Syria is the world's third-most sanctioned country, and the economic and trade restrictions are complex. They target Syria's petroleum sector and its central bank while blocking its ability to service or modernize its aviation sector.
On Tuesday, following a visit by a Qatari delegation to Damascus, the Gulf country’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, called for the quick removal of sanctions against Syria.
"The reasons that justified these sanctions no longer exist," he said.
Daher said both Qatar and Turkey have an interest to encourage Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf actors, to play a role in Syria, particularly economically.
If sanctions are not removed, they will obstruct the ability of the transitional government to operate and rebuild the country, Syrian scholar Ayman Abdel Nour told Energy Intelligence.
"I don’t think the Gulf countries will invest … or deposit the hard currency in the central bank that is very much needed," he said.
"The Gulf countries might lobby in the US to have exemptions or waivers, and they won't make any deposits in the Syrian central bank unless it is removed from the sanctions list," he said.