Because Chinese export prices are falling (think of the price of a solar panel), export volumes have been growing much faster than the dollar value of Chinese exports.
The phenomenon is clear in their export volume data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) as well the global data compiled by Dutch CPB.
What’s more, the Dutch data shows that Chinese import volume growth has collapsed, and Chinese imports in volume terms are now shrinking (looking at the y/y change in the 3-month moving average). On a year-over-year basis, Chinese export volumes are up 13 percent (data through November, so it will be close to the 2024 annual number) while import volumes are only up 2 percent. With exports around 20 percent of GDP, the 10 percentage point gap implies a net exports contribution to Chinese growth of close to 2 percent of GDP.
Reinforcing this rise in trade surplus, according to the BIS, the yuan has depreciated by about 15 percent relative to its late 2021 highs with a predictable impact on exports.
Source: CFR Post by Brad W. Setser, and Michael Weilandt