Trump 2.0 will strip away the illusions of the 'rules-based order'
His rhetoric and ideology seem untamed and extreme - and this time around, he enters the White House with a strong electoral mandate as Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, and the support of an ultra-conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
This would seem to ensure the prospect of Trump’s total control over the governing process in the US, but there are some daunting bumps in the road ahead.
Some of the contours of Trump’s presidency have become clear even before he officially returns to the White House. Firstly, it seems certain that he will make millions of undocumented immigrants in the US miserable from day one.It is not a good sign that Trump blamed the New Orleans car incident on weak border security considering it was the work of an American army veteran who recently converted to the Islamic State group.
His obsession with stopping asylum-seekers and immigrants from crossing the border without proper papers is certain to be acted upon. Already, the man Trump has selected as “border czar” has indicated his intention to deport entire families of undocumented persons, including naturalised citizens.
Trump could get away with this approach, however cruel in application, for a while - but the economics of the labour market will soon pose a challenge, creating strategic labour shortages in such critical sectors as agriculture in the southwestern US, exacerbating inflationary pressures.
There are also considerations around the growing need for skilled workers in the high-tech sector, which will increasingly shape the country’s economic future. These workers have been given high priority in relation to robust economic development, as Trump’s chief adviser, Elon Musk, keeps reminding him.
These concerns will be magnified if Trump goes ahead with his announced plans to place 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with punitive tariffs on Chinese imports. Such policies are the surest way to start a mutually destructive trade war.
Global dangers
On foreign policy, the outlook for a Trump presidency is more mixed, but uncertain and globally dangerous. In the beginning, Trump will probably seek to portray himself as a peacemaker, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
This conflict is both an example of the type of “forever war” he rejected during his first term in office, and an opportunity to explore whether a cooperative relationship with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia could circumvent the Atlantic alliance that has been a centrepiece of American foreign policy since the end of World War II.
Pushing for a ceasefire and diplomatic compromise was a grossly negligent missed opportunity during Joe Biden’s presidency, which seemed determined to inflict a geopolitical defeat on Russia, even at the cost of causing a disaster for Ukraine and its people.
If this change of direction occurs, Nato loyalists will have to rethink European security arrangements, and the American deep state will have to swallow defeat, or use its untested leverage to back the primacy of the US in geopolitical realms by keeping Russia out and Nato in.
When it comes to the Middle East, the story is different in terms of policy priority.
Trump has given every indication of wanting to exceed Biden’s unconditional support for Israel, including through the genocidal onslaught on Gaza, land grabbing, ethnic-cleansing operations and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, and escalating unlawful violence against regional adversaries.
Trump, by his political appointments and undisciplined commentary, seems determined to “finish the job” in Gaza, which can only be understood as erasing Palestine and Palestinians as obstacles to the rapid establishment of Greater Israel from “the river to the sea”.
Beyond this, he seems determined to confront Iran in a more muscular manner, possibly by destroying its nuclear facilities and taking more overt steps to provoke regime change in Tehran.
These policies, if actualised, would have many risks and adverse consequences, including the possibility of a wider regional war and a surge of anti-US sentiments. They would also cement Israel as the pariah state of our time, which could weaken it to the point of emboldening the peoples of the Arab world to rise up against their western-oriented repressive regimes, and unite behind the cause of liberating Palestine from settler-colonialism.
Contempt for internationalism
Finally, in every way, Trump and his entourage have signalled their opposition to internationalism. Trump has long displayed an unwavering commitment to an ultra-nationalist and transactional world view. He exhibits contempt for addressing global challenges, and for the benefits of cooperative problem-solving, even in the context of climate change.
In this sense, the UN will be valued only to the extent that it fully backs American strategic priorities - and should it dare to censure or oppose these priorities, Trump will surely threaten, and then cut, US funding, or even withdraw US participation.
Given such attitudes, it is not surprising that Trump is dismissive of the regulatory role of international law, especially if directed at restraining the US. Say goodbye to the cynical pretensions of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s “rules-based world order”, which has seemed more a synonym for US-led geopolitics than a genuine submission to universally applicable principles.
In the end, the Trump presidency may be forced to choose between a form of neo-isolationism and neo-imperialism
Trump may unintentionally provide a service to humanity by stripping away the liberal illusions shielding the reality that the US and its friends habitually avoid the constraints of international law that their rivals are bound to obey. In effect, Trump’s nihilism may be preferable to Biden’s hypocrisy.
In the end, the Trump presidency may be forced to choose between a form of neo-isolationism and neo-imperialism. If the isolationist alternative prevails, then an accelerated transition will likely occur from the post-Cold War world of unipolarity to a new era of complex multipolarity.
If the neo-imperialist model prevails, due to a compromise between the ultra-nationalist Trumpists and the globally ambitious American deep state, tensions will emerge between antagonistic forms of multipolarity and competing alliance networks, resembling in structure the Cold War, yet with differences, including the agenda of geopolitical rivalries.
The de-centring of conflict that includes the partial bypassing of Europe is all but certain. Europe is no longer the chief geopolitical prize, as it was in the three 20th-century global wars (including the Cold War).
Whatever else, the Trump presidency is likely to confound expectations, including these, while keeping busy the world’s most influential media platforms.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.