[Salon] Race for Syria (II)




Race for Syria (II)

Baerbock strives with Syria trip to stronger influence on the country. The government there has initiated an Islamist turn, relies on cooperation with the Gulf states and rejects a confrontation with Russia.

06

JAN

2025

"The Cursed": "Jews and Christians"

Several announcements made by the new rulers in Damascus in recent days have highlighted the political-ideological transformation they want to provoke Syria a little more clearly. For example, the Ministry of Education has published the first documents that provide for changes in the texts of the Syrian textbooks. Accordingly, secular references are to be replaced by religious-conservative ones; it is planned, for example, to replace formulations such as "path of virtue" with "path of Islam". 1] References to the theory of evolution are also to be deleted; however, this also happens in Western countries, especially in the USA, in the first beginnings also in Germany. 2] According to the Syrian Ministry of Education, representations of non-Islamic philosophies are also to be erased; instead of "the cursed" or "the misguided" it will be called "Jews and Christians" in the future. In the run of initial protests, Education Minister Nadhir al Qadri said that the changes were not yet in force; they had to be approved beforehand by unspecified committees. According to the statement of the actual ruler Ahmed al Scharaa, nebulous committees are also responsible for the creation of the new constitution; this could take two to three years. Elections will not take place until four years. 3]

Control of weapons

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the organization that has ruled the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria since 2017 [4] and brought about the overthrow of President Bashar al Assad in early December 2024 under its leader Al Sharaa, not only provides the government with ministers like Al Qadri. It is also in the process of bringing the military and intelligence services under its comprehensive control. For example, the former HTS military chief Murhaf abu Qasra has now been appointed Minister of Defense; as such, he controls the Syrian armed forces, into which HTS wants to integrate all the country's armed units. In addition, the previous HTS intelligence chief, Anas Khattab, now serves as head of the new all-Syrian intelligence service.[ 5] Of course, there are still complications in the integration of the armed forces into the regular armed forces. Thus, numerous Alawites and Druzen refuse to hand over their weapons to the new rulers. The cause is the fear of attacks, some of which have already existed at least on the Alawi minority.[ 6] Syria also caused a stir that HTS was apparently forced to hand over several leadership positions in the armed forces to leaders of foreign militias, including at least one Turk and one Uyghur from China.[ 7] Foreign militias are considered to be particularly jihadist-oriented.

Strategic Relations

In terms of foreign policy, Damascus is beginning to orient itself strongly to Turkey and the Arab Gulf States under the leadership of Al Sharaa. Turkey has always supported the opponents of former President Bashar al Assad - including HTS - since the beginning of the war in 2011, Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani recently recalled and announced that Ankara would therefore continue to "play a very active role in Syria" in the future. 8] Qatar, which already promoted the HTS forerunner Jabhat al Nusra, can also hope for considerable influence in Damascus. The Minister of State in the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed al Khulaifi, spoke when he Syria's foreign minister, Al Shaibani, and defense, Abu Qasra, accompanied by intelligence chief Khattab, arrived in Qatar's capital Doha for further exchange yesterday, on Sunday. Previously, they had completed their first visit abroad in the office of Saudi Arabia's capital Riad. Al Shaibani had announced in advance on X: "We look forward to building strategic relationships with our brothers in the kingdom" - "at all levels". After visiting Qatar, he is expected in the United Arab Emirates and Jordan.

Striving for influence

While Turkey and the Arab Gulf states are rapidly expanding their influence in Syria, Germany and the EU are currently striving not to fall too far behind in Damascus. Already in mid-December, the head of the EU delegation in Syria, the German diplomat Michael Ohnmacht, and a German delegation led by the Middle East Commissioner had arrived in the Syrian capital at the Federal Foreign Office. 10] Berlin seeks to use the fact that during the time of the HTS rule in the northwestern Syrian governorate of Idlib, it provided emergency and development aid to a considerable extent and was able to establish contacts in HTS circles, which are now proving to be highly useful. On Friday, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to Syria together with her French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot and met there not least with Al Sharaa. Of course, Baerbock tied a possible cooperation with the HTS government to conditions: A "new beginning ... between Germany and Syria" is only possible if there is "a political dialogue involving all ethnic and religious groups" in Damascus and women's rights are guaranteed. 11] The minister concluded, as usual, in an instructive tone: "It was important to hear that they understood this."

Syria's interests

Whether the HTS government will comply with Berlin's demands is at least uncertain - after all, with Turkey and the Arab Gulf states, it has alternatives available that pose fewer conditions for its political and economic support. The fact that Damascus under Al Sharaa insists on independence despite its very precarious situation is shown, among other things, by his reaction to the EU's demand to immediately close the Russian military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim. Baerbock repeated this demand during her visit to Damascus on Friday. Al Sharaa recently said in a longer interview with the Saudi broadcaster Al Arabiya: "We do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some want." 12] It corresponds to Syria's "strategic interests" to maintain good relations "with the second most powerful country in the world". Thus, numerous weapon systems of the Syrian armed forces came from Russian production; in addition, Russian experts kept Syrian power plants running. A possible withdrawal of the Russian armed forces – Moscow is currently trying to find alternatives for its military bases in Libya – must under no circumstances take place “in a way” that “undermines Russia's relations with our country,” Al Sharaa explained.

[1] Nadeen Ebrahim: Changes to Syria's school curriculum spark online outrage. edition.cnn.com 02.01.2025.

[2] Lion Grote: Creationist movement pushes German schools. morgenpost.de 06.03.2018.

[3] Syria's de facto leader says holding elections could take up to four years. aljazeera.com 29.12.2024.

[4] S. on upheavals in Syria (II).

[5] Who is Syria's new intelligence chief, Anas Khattab? newarab.com 27.12.2024.

[6] Kareem Fahim, Zakaria Zakaria: Alawites live in fear as Syrian rebels hunt members of Assad's regime. washingtonpost.com 01.01.2025.

[7] Sebastian Usher: Foreign fighters given senior Syrian army posts, reports say. bbc.co.uk 31.12.2024.

[8] Syria FM in Saudi Arabia on maiden trip as new rulers reset regional ties. aljazeera.com 02.01.2025.

[9] Qatar and Jordan pledge support to Syria. reuters.com 23.12.2024.

[10] S. on this race for Syria.

[11] Baerbock in Syria: New beginning is possible. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 04.01.2025.

[12] Exclusive: Syria's new elections and draft constitution: Al-Sharaa outlines timeline. english.alarabiya.net 29.12.2024.



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