A few days before the inauguration of a new American president, it appears that many of his enemies have reached the final stage of Kübler-Ross’s five stages of grief. The chorus sings: ‘oh, Trump won’t be so bad after all; he’s a bluffer and a deal-maker; he’s desperate for a Nobel; he won’t start any wars and may end one or two…’ Donald Trump’s being spared from (apparent) assassination has been compared to Ronald Reagan’s road to Damascus. However, being shot did not convert Reagan from a warmonger to a peacemaker; it intensified his long-standing need to be seen as a life-saver and protector. Whereas, for Trump, being shot merely confirmed his belief in his own indestructibility (or great luck). From Trump’s friends one also hears comparisons to his predecessor’s administration and its recklessness with American and other countries’ blood and treasure. But Joe Biden is neither a warmonger nor a peacemaker. His main character flaw is insecurity. He grabs hold of policies once he’s persuaded that they’re popular, clever, and ‘right’, and then doesn’t let go for fear that people will think he’s weak and unwise (or stupid). That is why he’s been so easily manipulated over the years, by everyone from Les Gelb to Jake Sullivan to Benjamin Netanyahu. Donald Trump won’t take his country to war on behalf of an abstraction like ‘deterrence’, ‘credibility’, or the ‘balance of power’. He won’t justify an inherited war in that way, either. But if anyone thinks he won’t destroy his country and others if his own interests and pride are at stake, that person should prepare to be proved very wrong. Talleyrand is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Talleyrand that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. © 2025 Talleyrand |