Which path lies the future for Syria? By Rick Barton and Brandon Hoffman - January 16, 2025
Which
direction do we want Syria to go? Host to a 10-sided gunfight? A return
to a repressive regime? Proxies and promoters of mischief making? Or, a
peaceful, neutral hub that respects its people and neighbors?
In
what is perhaps the most exciting and significant Middle East opening
since Jimmy Carter’s Camp David Accords in 1978, Syrians face all these
choices. The collapse of the 53-year Assad regime speaks to a national
consensus for change. Can the United States be a constructive
contributor to the peaceful, democratic transition of a long-suffering
people?
Our experience says yes. Since the peaceful revolution
against the Assad dictatorship in 2012, the United States found ways to
advance change. Small amounts of direct assistance from the State
Department and USAID began to: train officials; provide non-lethal
assistance for governance, such as computers and funds for public works;
establish independent radio and TV stations and provide survival alerts
to the countryside; pay for cops in Aleppo; expand social media;
provide seed funding and training for White Helmet rescuers and first
responders; and engage women in critical decision-making.
Modest investments earned the support of allies, including Canada, the U.K., and Denmark.
These initiatives gained traction — until the Assad family’s brutal bombing campaign backed by Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.
The
Syrians welcomed our assistance because we put them first. This was not
a “big arms, small brain” U.S. approach. We believed that increasing
the hope and reach of the Syrian opposition could deliver real promise.
We thought that bottom up, popular change could anchor a tough
neighborhood.
Now,
after a dozen years of conflict and 500,000 deaths, Syrians have their
opportunity. For the moment, the worst elements are gone. Benign
neighbors are few, with U.S. allies Turkey and Israel, already active
inside Syria. History shows that external actors make reversions to
conflict much greater.
Given all the uncertainty, Syrians are on
their streets, returning to homes (14 million fled), dealing with
everything from garbage collection, public safety, providing space to
celebrate holy days, and planning a critical national dialogue. Factions
are discouraged. Interim leaders are behaving. Our American friends in
Syria celebrate this “exhilarating” moment.
So
far, U.S. diplomacy is enlightened and temperate. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken’s comments about an “inclusive and non-sectarian”
government and a “unified approach” have led to direct contact with
Syria’s emerging leaders. Characterizations are being avoided, and
restraint is recommended to all.
With a new U.S. administration
arriving, a clear direction is essential. This is no time for more “War
on Terror” posturing or a placebo policy that lets nature take its
course.
This is the moment when hope and trust must be
reinforced. Syrian leadership is thin after the disappearance, murder
and exile of many. Multiple factions make governance challenging, and
resources are depleted. As in most post conflict settings, everything
needs to be done. That is a recipe for disaster.
Focus and native
resolve are the key building blocks, and tangible progress fuels them.
The recent popular uprising confirms these principles.
Here are their next practical steps:
- Define Syria as a peaceful nation that respects all its people and neighbors.
-
Emphasize public safety and daily life, with police protecting people
and property, schools welcoming students, and small infrastructure
improvements.
- Hold major perpetrators accountable under the law.
- Engage the public in an expansive daily dialogue and open communication.
Addressing
immediate citizen needs is the first step to capturing the public’s
imagination. Keeping it simple will attract internal followers and
external help.
Ten years ago, the U.S. partnered with promising
Syrians, offering catalytic aid and adapting to a fragile environment.
Since then, we spent billions, supporting 900 U.S. soldiers in the north
of Syria and keeping Syrians alive with $18 billion in humanitarian
aid. Existing funding streams must be redirected to meet this promising
moment. Accepting risk and relying on Syrians must replace delay and
deliberation. We need an interagency and multilateral team with a
full-time leader to adopt a unified strategy.
Historic openings
are few — and America can make a difference. Thanks to the Syrians’
grit, we are not called to fight, but to build peace.
Barton, a
Princeton University lecturer and author of “Peace Works – America’s
Unifying Role in a Turbulent World,” was assistant secretary of state
for conflict and stabilization operations from 2011-2014 and a leader of
U.S. government efforts to support the peaceful Syrian opposition.
Hoffman is a conflict and stabilization professional who worked on
Syria.