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Friends of Bruce: Can US Institutions Withstand Trump 2.0?
This is Project Syndicate’s Big Question of the Week – which it elaborated in the following way:
From threats to pursue his “enemies” to an apparent commitment to cementing plutocracy in America, Donald Trump’s second term will again test the resilience of the US constitutional order. And this time, he has not only full control of Congress, but also a Supreme Court ruling guaranteeing his immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts while in office.
It asked five of its contributors to provide brief answers – and here’s mine:
Bruce Ackerman
The question you pose contains a mistake – or, rather, a misrepresentation. Trump does not have full control of Congress, even though the Republican Party holds majorities in both chambers. Trump’s command over the House of Representatives is particularly uncertain. Only 31 House Republicans are members of the Freedom Caucus, and slightly over 100 more self-identify as “MAGA Republicans.” That adds up to only about 135 seats in the 436-member House. Although House Speaker Mike Johnson is a Trump ally, he will be able to get presidential initiatives passed only with the support of a majority coalition comprising pragmatic centrists from both parties, no matter how much pressure Trump applies.
Trump’s associates – from Musk to Vice President J.D. Vance, to the Heritage Foundation (the think tank behind the ultra-conservative Project 2025) – have divergent, even conflicting, agendas. But even if one or another of these actors convinces Trump to back their “revolutionary” horse, extremist initiatives will never get the 219 votes needed to pass the House. Johnson is well aware of this. So, rather than allow, say, Project 2025 to lose decisively on the floor of the House, he will try to convince his fellow Republicans to bury it in committee.
In any case, the Republicans might not maintain their congressional majorities for long. When the 2026 mid-term elections come around, many will face serious challenges from Democrats, and the Trump loyalists who helped them get where they are today might not show up to back Republicans who, in their view, have “betrayed” the president.
To be clear, there is plenty of reason to worry. Notably, Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would seek a third term, even though the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution explicitly states that “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” What if he did decide to run again in 2028 – say, because a centrist took the lead in the Republican primaries? Would the self-declared “textualists” who now dominate the Supreme Court declare such a power play unconstitutional? Would he back down? If he didn’t, who would take decisive measures to preserve the foundations of US democracy?
At this point, my crystal ball clouds over. I leave it to readers to consider the grim scenarios that may well lie ahead.
For the very different answers by my fellow Syndicalists, go to: https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/can-us-institutions-withstand-trump-2-0.
As always, I’d be very interested in hearing your answers as well. |
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