Negotiators zero in on potential deal to disarm Syria's last battleground
Item
1 of 5 A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands
along a street after rebels seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar
al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. REUTERS/Orhan
Qereman/File Photo
[1/5]A
member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a
street after rebels seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar
al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. REUTERS/Orhan
Qereman/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights - Complex talks underway over fate of Kurdish-led forces
- Sides showing patience and flexibility, sources say
- Deal could expel some fighters from Syria and integrate others under the defense ministry
- Many thorny issues remain to be resolved
ISTANBUL/DAMASCUS,
Jan 19 (Reuters) - Negotiators are zeroing in on a potential deal to
resolve one of the most explosive questions looming over Syria's future:
the fate of Kurdish forces that the U.S. considers key allies against
Islamic State but neighbouring Turkey regards as a national security
threat.
Diplomatic
and military negotiators from the United States, Turkey, Syria and the
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are showing more flexibility
and patience than their public statements suggest, a dozen sources told
Reuters, including five directly involved in the intensive web of
discussions in recent weeks.
This
could set the stage for an accord in the coming months that would see
some Kurdish fighters leave Syria's restive northeast and others brought
under the authority of the new defense ministry, six of the sources
said.
However,
many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said. These include how to
integrate the SDF alliance's well-armed and trained fighters into
Syria's security framework and administer territory under their control,
which includes key oil and wheat fields.
In
an interview with Saudi Arabia's Asharq News channel on Tuesday, SDF
commander Mazloum Abdi said the alliance's "basic demand" is for
decentralised administration - a potential challenge to Syria's new
leadership, which wants to bring all of the country back under the
government's authority after ousting Bashar al-Assad last month.
Abdi
indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving, saying it was
open to linking with the defense ministry and operating according to its
rules, but as "a military bloc".
Syria's new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that approach in
an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the SDF remain one bloc "is not right."
The
former rebels now in power in Damascus have said they want all armed
groups to integrate into Syria's official forces, under a unified
command. The SDF, when asked for comment, referred Reuters to its
commander's interview.
How
much autonomy Kurdish factions retain likely hinges on whether incoming
U.S. president Donald Trump continues Washington's longtime support of
its Kurdish allies, according to diplomats and officials on all sides.
Trump
has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans for
some 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. A Trump representative did
not comment.
Any
deal also depends on whether Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan holds off
on a threatened military offensive against the People's Protection
Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheads the SDF alliance.
Ankara
views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which
has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and
is deemed a terrorist group by both Turkey and the U.S.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Syria's new authorities "should be
given an opportunity
to ... end the occupation and terror the YPG created", but he did not
say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an
incursion.
A
Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed groups and the
departure of "foreign terrorist fighters" were essential for Syria's
stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the
better.
"We
are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our
contacts with both the United States and the new administration in
Damascus," the source said.
INTENSIVE TALKS
U.S.
and Turkish officials have been holding "very intensive" discussions
since rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda
affiliate, launched a lightning offensive from their northwestern
stronghold that deposed Assad on Dec. 8, a senior U.S. diplomat told
Reuters.
The
two countries share a "common view of where things should end up",
including a belief that all foreign fighters should exit Syrian
territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish negotiators "have a very
high sense of urgency" to settle things.
However,
the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to
discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were "hugely complex" and
would take time.
Parallel
talks are taking place between the U.S. and both the SDF and HTS,
Turkey and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officials from all sides say.
Part
of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and
Syria, Kurds had been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict,
gaining control over Arab-majority areas as the U.S. partnered with them
in the campaign against Islamic State. They now hold nearly a quarter
of the country.
But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions
on the back foot, with Turkey-backed armed groups gaining ground in the northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with Ankara.
Turkey, which provided direct support to some rebel groups against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential
power brokers
in Syria since his fall. Like the U.S., it has designated HTS a
terrorist group because of its al Qaeda past, but Ankara is believed to
have significant sway over the group.
Officials
on all sides worry that failure to reach a ceasefire and longer-term
political accord in the northeast could destabilise Syria as it seeks to
recover from a 13-year civil war that killed hundreds of thousands,
displaced millions and drew in countries including Russia, Iran and
Israel.
Dozens
of people in northern Syria have been reported killed since December in
clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and Turkey's allies, and in
cross-border Turkish airstrikes.
Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria could also undermine
nascent efforts to end the PKK's insurgency in Turkey.
The
United Nations has warned of "dramatic consequences" for Syria and the
region if a political solution is not found in the northeast.
POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS
U.S. support for the SDF has been a source of tension with its NATO ally, Turkey.
Washington views the SDF as a key partner in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State
Antony Blinken
has warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in
Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked
to the group.
Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey has the power to
"crush" all terrorists in Syria, including Islamic State and Kurdish militants.
Turkey
wants the management of camps and prisons where Islamic State detainees
are being held transferred to Syria's new rulers and has offered to
help them. It has also demanded that the SDF expel all foreign fighters
and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining
members in a way it can verify.
Abdi,
the SDF commander, has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish
demands, telling Reuters last month that its foreign fighters, including
PKK members,
would leave Syria if Turkey agrees to a ceasefire.
The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it
would agree to leave if the SDF maintains control of the northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.
Such
assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the SDF is
"trying to stay alive and autonomous" in Syria, Omer Onhon, Turkey's
last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters.
In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said the extensive U.S.-backed SDF presence was
no longer justified,
and the new administration would not allow Syrian land to be a source
of threats to Turkey. Standing next to him, his Turkish counterpart,
Fidan, said it was time to put anti-terror pledges into practice.
Abdi
told Asharq News that he has met with Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed
al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a joint military committee
to decide how the SDF would integrate with the defense ministry. He
described the meeting with Sharaa, who heads HTS, as positive.
Abu
Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of
"procrastinating" on the issue, saying "consolidation of all areas under
the new administration ... is a right of the Syrian state."
The
new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to continue
operating as a bloc would "risk destabilisation, including a coup", a
ministry official told Reuters.
Abdi
argued that a decentralised administration would not threaten Syria's
unity, saying the SDF is not demanding the kind of federalism introduced
in Iraq, where Kurds have their own regional government.
Some
Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely need to
relinquish control of significant territory and oil revenues, gained
during the war, as part of any political settlement.
In
return, Kurdish factions could be granted protections for their
language and culture within a decentralised political structure, said
Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which
supports minority rights but is not involved in the talks.
A senior Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some such trade-offs would likely be needed but did not elaborate.
Abdi
told Asharq News that the SDF was open to handing over responsibility
for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was
distributed fairly to all provinces.
Washington has called for a
"managed transition" of the SDF's role.
The
U.S. diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for Washington to
eventually consider withdrawing its troops from Syria, though much
depends on whether trusted forces like its Kurdish allies remain engaged
in efforts to counter any Islamic State resurgence.
Trump's
return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes in Turkey of a
favourable deal, given the rapport he established with Erdogan during
his first term.
Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan's role in Syria, calling him a "very smart guy", and said Turkey would
"hold the key" to what happens there.
"The
Americans won't abandon (the SDF)," said Onhon, Turkey's former
ambassador. "But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must
worry them in a way too."
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Reporting
by Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul, Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara and Maya
Gebeily in Damascus; Addional reporting by Timour Azhari in Damascus,
Suleiman Al-Khalidi in Amman, Tom Perry in Beirut, Ahmed Rasheed in
Baghdad and Orhan Qereman in Qamishli, Syria; Editing by Alexandra Zavis