Surprising few people except perhaps Amos Hochstein, who guaranteed this wouldn’t happen, Israel confirmed Friday that they will, in fact, not be withdrawing from Lebanon by the deadline set out in the ceasefire, which was 60 days and arrives overnight Sunday into Monday.
There were reports Thursday that Israel was seeking US permission to extend that period by 30 days, but even that isn’t necessarily a firm number. There is, as of yet, no concrete timeline for Israel to end the occupation of southern Lebanon.
Israel invaded Lebanon on October 1, after months of airstrikes killing vast numbers of civilians. The ceasefire was reached November 26, though Israel has continued to attack Lebanon during that period, committing hundreds of violations.
Israeli troops are also systematically destroying civilian homes in towns and villages across southern Lebanon, with multiple fires being set daily. In the handful of villages they’ve actually left, Lebanese troops and returning families are finding the area effectively demolished.
The Israeli decision to stay in Lebanon is not being justified by the realities on the ground, though they continue to make vague claims of Hezbollah not holding up their side of the bargain. The appearance for now is that Israel just can’t finish all the destruction they’re seeking to commit by 4 A.M. Monday morning.
Hezbollah had been respecting the ceasefire, and hadn’t attacked Israeli territory once during the deal. They’ve warned their patience is limited, however, and would be expiring with the ceasefire. Now that Israel has publicly confirmed they aren’t leaving, retaliation seems probable.
The US hasn’t commented yet on Israel remaining in Lebanon, though it was reported Thursday that President Trump was reluctant to sign off on Israel extending the occupation. In practice, however that’s likely to stop well short of actively forbidding it.