Trump's Gaza Real Estate Dream Could Send Shockwaves Through the Middle East - Middle East News - Haaretz.com
Jordan would never become "an alternative homeland" for Palestinians, King Abdullah declared in a speech at the UN General Assembly last September. At the time, the king had to deal with threats from the Israeli far-right; this week, he was startled to hear from President Trump that Jordan's becoming a Palestinian homeland could become official White House policy.
The king himself has yet to publicly react, and it is unclear what Trump said, exactly, but Trump's "humane" suggestion has already caused a tremendous public outcry, and it now seems as if Jordan and Egypt intend to recruit Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries considered U.S. allies in order to get Trump to climb down that tree.
Jordan, already host to over a million Syrian, Iraqi and other refugees, as well as two million Palestinian refugees, has already faced the threat of Palestinian immigration in 2019. Then, Trump suggested it absorb hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in return for financial aid as part of "The Deal of the Century" rejected by Jordan, and now the threat returns. For Jordan, the primary problem is preserving Jordanian identity in a country where two thirds of all inhabitants are of Palestinian descent, shaking up the country whenever a significant event happens in the territories.
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For decades, Jordan was keeping a suspicious, concerned eye on Israeli discourse about the establishment of an alternative Palestinian homeland and each time required all-clear statements from Israeli leaders to indicate that Israel does not intend to dissolve the kingdom's demographic identity. When, during the war in Gaza, the suggestion was again made that hundreds of thousands of Gazans be deported to Egypt and other countries, Jordan and Egypt received Israeli assurances that there is no intention to start a transfer of Palestinians from Gaza.
Egypt, distrustful of Israeli commitments and experienced in the 2008 "invasion" of a million and a half Palestinians into its territories after Hamas bombed down part of the wall separating Gaza from the Sinai, reinforced its military stance along the border and warned it will not allow a single unauthorized Palestinian to enter its territory.
Gazans in Nuseirat, as they wait to make their way to the northern Gaza Strip, on Sunday.Credit: AFP/-
Jordan does not share a border with Gaza but has made it clear to the Biden administration, that was looking into the possibility of transferring thousands of Palestinian to Sinai, that once such a move is legitimized, Israel will exploit it to carry out a transfer of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordanian territory.
Jordanian anxiety has done its part, and former Secretary of State Antony Blinken made it publicly clear last January that "Palestinian civilians must be able to return home as soon as conditions allow. They cannot, they must not be pressed to leave Gaza," adding that he has assurances from Prime Minister Netanyahu that it was not Israel's policy to encourage voluntary migration from Gaza.
Biden and Blinken have gone and so, it seems, has the "defensive wall" they provided against the madness of the Israeli right that is now being given additional wind in its sails from Trump. Unfortunately, Jordan is very dependent on financial aid from the U.S., with which it signed in 2022 a generous aid agreement at over $10 billion over 10 years, and with whom it trades at over $3 billion annually.
After Trump last week put a freeze on all U.S. government foreign aid to all the world's countries, with the exception of Israel and Egypt, it is unclear what is to become of that agreement, intended to rescue Jordan from a deep recession, with a budget deficit of some $2.2 billion and unemployment at over 21 percent. Jordan is now required to tiptoe in order to preserve the financial aid and the tariff benefits it gets from the U.S.; however, any influx of refugees into its territory would mean unbearable financial burden.
Already, the cost of Jordan's "hosting" of refugees is estimated at some $2 billion per year, with aid received for them shrinking. The kingdom has recently decided to levy a fee on work permits given to Gaza residents who are not Jordanian nationals, as it previously cancelled the exemption given to other refugees from this expensive fee, at $500 per year. Here lies the other threat posed by the notion of the transfer of Palestinians into Jordan. The absorption of refugees from Syria and Iraq has not only incurred excessive spending on civilian infrastructure such as water, electricity, health and education, but has also caused thousands of Jordanian citizens to lose their jobs, having been replaced by cheap refugee labor.
Rent prices rose dramatically, and with them the cost of living, to the extent that part of the middle class dropped to the poverty line. Theoretically, and assuming that Jordan will be asked to absorb about half a million Gazans out of the million and a half that Trump suggests be transferred, such a transfer should come with a realistic aid package of at least $2 billion per year, at $3,000 per refugee per year, a minimal sum that is barely enough to cover daily needs. Will Trump be willing to foot the bill for this package, and for how long?
Egypt, too, that will be required according to this theoretical calculation to absorb some one million Gazans, will require similar aid: $4 billion per year. It is highly doubtful whether Trump will be able to recruit the usual Arab ATMs – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar – to provide this funding, with them already busy planning the rebuilding of Syria and Lebanon and later will likely be asked to help establish Gaza's offshore Singapore, as envisioned by Trump.
Aid packages from the Qatari Red Crescent set to be transferred to the Gaza Strip, on Wednesday.Credit: Jehad Shelbak / Reuters
In Egypt, as in Jordan, the question of a Palestinian transfer is stirring up the national sentiment demanding the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, as well as security and economic fears. Egypt, continuing its total war against Islamist terrorist groups in Sinai, does not need one million more Palestinians who, even if they are stopped in Sinai, could establish bases for terrorist activity, not only against Israel but also against Egypt itself.
Egypt, where over one hundred thousand Gazan refugees have already gone, in addition to some nine million refugees and migrant workers already within its territory, has adopted a strict policy intended to prevent Palestinians from taking root there. Most Palestinian refugees are required to live in the fenced-up and military road blocked El Arish area. They are not allowed to work, their visas are temporary and many of them are already designated illegal aliens who could be deported and even arrested at any moment. Also, unlike Jordan, Egypt does not allow UNRWA to operate in its territory, except for a symbolic presence, and puts great obstacles before other aid organizations. (TP-As Israel doesn't either anymore, I believe.
Officially, Egypt agreed to absorb some 5,500 sick and wounded from Gaza, but they are required to adhere to strict staying conditions that forbid them from leaving the hospital compound unless accompanied by a security guard and forbid them from bringing in personal possessions or even toys for children.
Egypt receives an annual $1.3 billion in American aid, as determined in the Camp David Accords, as well as financial aid of varying size. But, unlike Jordan, the American aid is just a small part of the total aid it receives, which also comes from Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The real value of the American aid is in allowing Egypt the backup it requires to get loans from international funding institutions. However, if Trump insists that Cairo absorb hundreds of thousands of Gazans, he might push it to a dangerous decision point that could determine the fate of its cooperation with the U.S., and even test its peace treaty with Israel.
But Trump's vision of a transfer is not just a Jordanian or Egyptian problem. It could influence relations between all Arab countries and the U.S. and put to the supreme test the ability of Arab regimes, including those considered strategic allies of the U.S., to face public pressures that this plan could stir. The dream of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia could then be just collateral damage of Trump's real-estate enterprise in Gaza.