The fragile balance of silence between Israel and Hezbollah
In order to return to their homes, the South Lebanese impatiently waited for the ceasefire to end and, as understood, for Israel to leave the occupied Lebanese territories. With the end of the ceasefire on the morning of Sunday, January 26, the Lebanese who wanted to return home were targeted by Israel's bullets. Israel announced that it would not leave the occupied Lebanon and, with the support of the United States, extended the ceasefire until February 18.
Hezbollah's Support for Gaza
On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah launched clashes with Israel by launching guided rockets and artillery shells at positions in the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. These attacks took place immediately after Hamas's Al-Aqsa Flood Operation against Israel the day before and the operations launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah announced that it has opened a second front for Israel in support of Gaza. As a result of mutual attacks, settlers in northern Israel and civilians in southern Lebanon had to leave their homes behind and migrate to relatively safe places.
The clashes between Israel and Hezbollah ended with a 60-day ceasefire agreement reached on November 27, 2024. Within the scope of this agreement, it was envisaged that the Hezbollah fighters would retreat north of the Litani River and Israel to the south of the Blue Line in southern Lebanon. Israel violated the ceasefire 1,454 times, 813 times by land, 634 times by air and 7 times by sea.
Israel had to withdraw from Lebanon over a period of 60 days in order to ensure the complete deployment of the Lebanese army along the border to disarm Hezbollah, remove Hezbollah and its weapons from the border. This period ended on the morning of Sunday, January 26, 2025, but the Israeli army is still stationed in the area. Tensions are high after Israeli forces killed at least 24 people who wanted to return to their homes and injured a total of 134 people, including 14 women and 12 children.
Some of the wounded and dead were supporters of Hezbollah. What happened on Sunday was in a way a defiant of resistance, but it was also seen as a message that Hezbollah, which had been severely weakened by last year's war, has not been destroyed and still has influence in this country. Children, women, men waved the Hezbollah flags in their hands against the Merkeva tanks.
The funeral ceremony of Hezbollah's former Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, who lost his life in the assassination of Israel, was planned to be held on February 16. With the postponement of the ceasefire to the other date, Nasrallah's funeral will probably be postponed.
Lebanon's Attitude
The Lebanese army tried to warn the people not to return to southern Lebanon. The Israeli army also took a clear stance on this issue and made it clear that they would not allow people to return to their villages.
The Israeli army claims that the Lebanese army has not fulfilled its mission in southern Lebanon and that the disarmament of Hezbollah and the elimination of its military infrastructure have not been achieved. He claims that there are not enough Lebanese military units in the region and that Hezbollah still exists in the region. However, these claims have not been confirmed by the US-led international committee that monitors the ceasefire.
The Lebanese army, on the other hand, argues that it has the power to be fully deployed in the south. But the presence of Israeli troops in the region still prevents the Lebanese army from existing effectively in these areas. This situation poses a major challenge for Joseph Aoun, the country's new president and also the army's former Chief of Staff. Stating that Israel violated this agreement, Aoun held a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. France is one of the guarantors of this ceasefire agreement. However, the Lebanese state is generally weak and does not have the power to wage a direct fight against the Israeli army. Hezbollah was seriously weakened in the last war.
Protests of the people in the region have now come to the fore. If Hezbollah starts a war again, it seems likely that Israel will engage in a large-scale aerial bombardment. For this reason, Lebanon is obliged to accept the continuation of the ceasefire.
What Does the Israeli Press and Trump Say?
The Israeli media is furious and disappointed that they think the agreement they have signed with Lebanon has failed and is weak. The majority are those who think that they have won this war, but the ceasefire agreement is incomplete because it does not include a demilarized zone or buffer zone. He argues that northern settlers hesitate to return to their homes and do not feel safe when they can see Lebanese civilians waving Hezbollah flags.
The Trump administration supports Israel's presence in the region. As a matter of fact, before Lebanon and Israel, the White House announced that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended until February 18. According to the White House, Hezbollah still poses a threat. However, this situation has not broken the determination of the Lebanese people to return to their homes.
Let's see if the occupation will end on February 18, will the occupation continue by extending the ceasefire again or whether the war will continue from where it left off? Probably, with the support of the USA on the grounds that the Lebanese Army is not ready, Israel will continue to occupy Lebanese territory and all parties will start preparing for the next round.