Breaking the Ice: India and China Resume Diplomatic Engagement
The Indo–China relationship has been tense and intricate due to an unsettled border, an unequal trade relationship, China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, and a bilateral disagreement over each other’s rightful place in Asia and beyond. The Indo-China relationship was further complicated by the Galwan Valley standoff in 2020. This was the significant clash between India and China after the 1962 war. The standoff disrupted the border-management regime negotiated and agreed upon over decades. The Russia-Ukraine war has brought China closer to Russia, India’s historic defense partner. During the 1990s and until 2013, both states agreed to set aside their disagreement on the border and preferred economic development. China adopted an assertive foreign policy and focused on promoting technological advancement, and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is aimed at enhancing trade connectivity across Asia, Europe, Africa, and beyond. On the other hand, India considered itself an economic champion in Asia and beyond due to its fast-growing economy. India’s ‘Make in India’ policy represents its ambitions to strengthen its global position and grow its services in Asia as an alternative to China to boost exports.
However, the tensions between India and China increased due to the 2020 clash between troops along their border in the Himalayas, which killed at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese. Afterward, India disallowed the investment of Chinese companies in the country, banned various digital apps, and cut passenger routes, although direct cargo flights continued to operate between the countries. However, after the lapse of four years, the relationship between the two states improved due to an agreement to ease a military standoff on the border in October 2024. In the same month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks in Russia on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. Both leaders engaged in positive interactions at all levels and accelerated the process of improving China-India relations. Besides this, several high-profile meetings have taken place for the rapprochement between both states, but China’s approval of a hydropower dam in Tibet, in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo river, raised eyebrows in India. According to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, it is expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of power annually, three times the power of China’s massive Three Gorges Dam. Chinese officials said that hydropower projects in Tibet would not have a major impact on the environment or on downstream water supplies.
On 27 January 2025, India and China agreed to resume direct air services after nearly five years and work on resolving differences over trade and economic issues. A meeting was held between India’s top diplomat, Vikram Misri, and China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi in Beijing, and both officials negotiated a framework for the flights’ resumption. Both sides agreed to enhance economic and trade relations and promote a long-term policy of transparency. Chinese Foreign Minister stated that the improvement and development of China-Indian relations are fully in line with the fundamental interests of the two countries and peoples, conducive to safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of the Global South countries, and conducive to the contribution of the two ancient civilizations to peace, stability, development and prosperity in Asia and the world. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Misri also assured that India is ready to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with China and will fully support China’s chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). However, the statements of both sides officials indicate the commitment of both states to the willingness to improve bilateral relations through dialogues at the diplomatic level. Moreover, the rapprochement included agreements on improving access to journalists from both sides and facilitating pilgrimages to a Hindu holy site in Tibet. These steps indicate a shared commitment to bring bilateral relations back on track. However, the progress remains fragile, given the deep-rooted tensions stemming from the deadly 2020 border clash, which had severely damaged trust. Despite recent efforts to restore normalcy, both nations must navigate their complex history carefully to sustain this renewed engagement.
The current geopolitical environment suggests that a complete return to the pre-2020 status quo for India-China relations still appears unlikely. Economic cooperation between both states can occur, but they are unlikely to lead to any strategic realignments as long as the border disagreement remains unresolved. Moreover, the regional competition between both states will continue to exist, as China’s increasing influence in Asia diverges from India’s geopolitical and strategic concerns. India considers itself a strategic ally of the United States and its rapprochement with China adds complexity to its foreign policy. India’s dual strategy raises some questions about India’s consistency as a strategic partner and its ability to maintain a stable diplomatic trajectory. India’s approach to safeguarding its economic interests has occasionally led to actions that could be perceived as conflicting with the expectations of mutual trust and cooperation.
Indias history regarding bilateral and economic relations raises concerns over its reliability as a consistent partner. There have been instances when India’s actions appeared to somewhat deviate from the principles of the UN Charter and its international obligations. Various strategic, economic, and geopolitical considerations account for India’s attempts to mend its relations with China. Even if border issues continue to haunt them, India and China still have a considerable economic relationship. China is one of India’s largest trading partners, and any effort to improve relations could lead to enhanced economic cooperation, trade, and investment-critical factors in India’s economic development. In working towards mending relations with China, India is probably going to adopt a pragmatic approach to protect its economic and strategic interests in conjunction with a diminished risk of confrontation. India wants an independent foreign policy doesn’t want to be entangled with China. India cannot live in isolation and it has to mend its relationship with its neighboring state for its national security and interests.