Understanding Trump's Attack on South Africa
Hypocrisy is the key to politics
Many of my subscribers have undoubtedly been following the recent debate regarding the dispute between South Africa and the United States.
For what it's worth, I wanted to share my perspective on what I think is going on and why the situation is dangerous for South Africa.
First, I don’t believe America would have reacted this way if South Africa had not filed a complaint against Israel at the International Court of Justice, alleging genocide. US-South Africa relations have always been tenuous, but alienating America’s most important ally in the Middle East was the final straw. As a result, we are now shifting toward being viewed as a US “enemy state”.
When I asked Minister Gwede Mantashe, the then Minister of Energy, before SA went to the ICJ, whether the ANC had conducted a cost-benefit analysis at the time, he reacted purely emotionally, insinuating that I supported oppression. There was never a serious attempt by the ANC to conduct one. When I mentioned that my wife was from the Middle East and that I therefore fully understood how the Palestinians are treated, he became even angrier. South Africa simply never took a calculated risk, and consequently it is paying the price, that many of us including myself warned about. America does not tolerate "anti"-western actions”.
That aside, as an Afrikaner myself, I’d like to share my perspective on what I believe is happening and where this recent resentment inside South Africa comes from. In my view, it stems from three main causes, which cannot simply be dismissed as “racism” or “disinformation” by our local media houses, who should know of better.
The land issue, which the government has still not clearly resolved. Current legislation does not precisely define what “nil compensation” means. Moreover, it doesn’t help that the current foreign minister, in his youth, gave demagogic speeches and made threats similar to those of Julius Malema. All of this is actually counterproductive, because I don’t believe that many white people oppose land reform—so long as it’s not implemented in the manner of Zimbabwe.
The language issue, too often overlooked by many commentators. I have repeatedly tried to publicly raise awareness about the sensitivity of language for Afrikaners, but each time, I have failed to convince my counterparts in the media that this is a major point of contention. The recent Bela Bill, for example, is just one step in a series of measures taken by the South African government during education reform, and each time, linguistic concerns have been largely ignored. There was a positive attempt in the mid-1990s when Mandela created the Gerwel Commission, which proposed reasonable legislation to promote language rights. However, when I spoke to Apartheid historian Herman Giliomee, he told me that these opportunities were lost due to internal struggles among Afrikaner chancellors within universities. The English-Afrikaans issue in South Africa is comparable to Quebec, where there is a minority, who for historical reasons for feel sensitive about their home language being absorbed by the historical colonial language.
Racial policies. Many internal conflicts, that is now being exploited, could be avoided if South Africa abandoned race-based laws and instead adopted a class-based approach to affirmative action policies that exists in many western countries such as France, the UK, and throughout the European Union. Many white people, especially those in the diaspora, feel alienated and migrated because raced based classification laws forced them to seek green pastures elsewhere.
As a result, we find ourselves in a dangerous situation where Donald Trump is now surrounded by many white South Africans—such as those from the "PayPal Mafia"—who have become very successful in the United States but still remember how they were treated when the country “retrenched them”. Elon Musk is not a sole actor, but rather a symptom of the largest problem. As the graph below shows, South Africans have the highest earnings in America among all African migrants, (the value is median, hence it is not influenced by Musk’s richness”.
Unfortunately unlike the Israeli Lobby, they carry a resentment against the local SA government.
Finally, I believe that many opportunists are exaggerating the situation and exploiting it for obvious reasons. However, it is important to recognize that some of these concerns are real and relatively simple to address. The ANC must reflect on its role in creating this situation. It is not only about Israel but also about how whites, particularly Afrikaners, were treated in the new democratic dispensation.
Few today would deny the impact of Apartheid on the black population at large. However, what provoked the diaspora was how the South Africa government alienated them in the post 1994 dispensation—showing indifference when they were forced out of the civil service, when their language was marginalized, or when the government justified exclusion by citing a so-called "skills gap" as a pretext for not employing whites. The most blatant example of this is the fact that 150 South Africans helped build a nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates while their own country continued to struggle with electricity shortages.
I am personally pessimistic that America’s approach will allow the ANC to make concessions while enabling the United States to avoid exerting a “maximum pressure” campaign on South Africa. Elon Musk’s recent move to “sanction” Malema may be welcomed by many whites who have long sought impunity, but I suspect it is bound to backfire.
If the history of Iran and Zimbabwe is anything to go by, sanctions do not help reform a situation. In fact, the evidence shows that they often make it worse—especially for the average person. This includes “individual sanctions” that Afriforum and Elon Musk are now advocating for.
I do not see anything good to come of this.