Re: [Salon] Trump's USAID cull hands China the upper hand in Southeast Asia



SEA  has closer economic ties with China. 

On Wednesday, February 12, 2025 at 08:24:56 PM GMT+5, Chas Freeman via Salon <salon@listserve.com> wrote:


Trump's USAID cull hands China the upper hand in Southeast Asia

A policy meant to put 'America First' is instead accelerating America's retreat

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Dien Luong
February 7, 2025

20250206 usaid

People hold placards outside the USAID building in Washington on Feb. 3 after Elon Musk said work was underway to shut down the U.S. foreign aid agency. © Reuters

Dien Luong is a visiting fellow with the media, technology and society program of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a doctoral student in communications and media at the University of Michigan.

In April 2015, in a national speech marking 40 years since the end of the Vietnam War, Nguyen Tan Dung, the pro-West prime minister at the time, did not mince words when he recalled the "countless barbarous crimes" committed by the U.S. during the conflict.

Fast-forward a decade to the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, where current Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh struck a different tone -- one of deepening economic ties with Washington. Yet beneath the diplomatic polish, his message was clear: The U.S. had a responsibility to help Vietnam rebuild from the "devastation" the U.S. once inflicted.

Despite burgeoning rapprochement -- including an upgraded Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) -- addressing war legacies has remained central to U.S.-Vietnam relations. But with President Donald Trump's administration moving to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and gut American foreign aid, decades of trust in Washington's commitments are unraveling in real time.

With USAID on the chopping block, one of the most tangible pillars of Washington-Hanoi reconciliation is now imperiled: the cleanup of Agent Orange, the toxic defoliant the American military sprayed over vast swaths of southern Vietnam during the war. USAID has been a key driver of these remediation efforts, but with its future in doubt, the fate of Vietnam's worst dioxin-contaminated site is just as uncertain.

USAID's impending collapse follows Washington's suspension of its global mine-clearing programs, dealing yet another blow to postwar recovery. With millions of tonnes of unexploded ordnance still littering Vietnam and over 100,000 casualties since the war's end, one of the country's last lifelines for recovery is also grinding to a halt.

Washington's abrupt retreat undermines the war legacy commitments enshrined in its newly minted CSP with Vietnam. It is also a glaring signal that America's long-standing assurances are eroding at a time when Hanoi remains one of the few Southeast Asian nations still favoring alignment with Washington over Beijing. This crisis extends far beyond Vietnam. Across Asia, this precedent fuels a deeper concern: Trust in U.S. commitments is fading fast. And signs are already emerging that China is moving in to fill the void.

The dismantling of USAID and the freezing of U.S. foreign aid are hollowing out critical recovery efforts across Asia, halting mine-clearing operations, cutting off medical supplies, and crippling humanitarian programs. The ramifications are already devastating, with lifesaving treatments suspended, research teams disbanded, and vulnerable populations abandoned.

In Cambodia, demining teams are scrambling to stay operational as U.S. funding vanishes, even as land mines continue to maim civilians and workers. The sudden halt in U.S. support threatens to stall years of progress in clearing explosive remnants of war. In Laos, the most heavily bombed country per capita, demining operations now hang in the balance, leaving communities exposed to deadly unexploded ordnance.

alt Then Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen inspects demining equipment during an opening ceremony of a multi-national peacekeeping exercise near Phnom Penh.   © Reuters

The damage extends far beyond war legacy programs. The aid cutoff is hitting Cambodia's most vulnerable hardest, putting vital social services and human rights programs in limbo. In Thailand, the aid freeze has shuttered clinics in refugee camps, leaving nearly 100,000 displaced people from Myanmar without essential medical care. Nepal's $72 million child nutrition program has been suspended, leaving thousands at risk of malnutrition. In Pakistan, where U.S. assistance has long propped up critical development projects, the freeze has slammed the brakes on key infrastructure, energy and governance initiatives, deepening already strained ties with Washington.

Some may argue that Trump's tendency to alienate U.S. allies makes this unsurprising. After all, even Colombia -- a longtime U.S. partner -- was strong-armed with trade threats after resisting Trump's deportation demands last month. But this is not just Washington burning bridges. With USAID dismantled and foreign aid paralyzed, what is left is a widening vacuum -- one that China is already poised to exploit.

The shift is already unfolding. As the U.S. retreats from global development leadership, hope is fading across the Indo-Pacific for a U.S.-led alternative to Chinese development aid, derailing years of coordinated efforts with allies like Japan and South Korea. The latest ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey, an annual barometer of Southeast Asian attitudes toward great-power competition, marks a historic turning point: For the first time since its inception in 2019, a majority of respondents now favor China over the U.S. if forced to choose between the two superpowers. Vietnam and the Philippines are the only holdouts still leaning toward Washington.

And Beijing is not waiting for sentiment to turn into policy as it already cements its influence on the ground. Even before Washington's retreat, Beijing had expanded its footprint in Cambodia and Laos through mine-clearing efforts, tightening its grip on two nations already deep in its orbit. Beyond Southeast Asia, China's financial lifeline to Pakistan -- including debt rollovers and fresh funding -- has reinforced its grip on the country's economic future, particularly as U.S. assistance grows more uncertain.

Trump may justify his sweeping aid cuts as a fulfillment of his promise to put American taxpayers first. But in doing so, he is undermining another signature pledge -- to curb China's growing influence.

By pulling back U.S. support, his administration is not just alienating key partners; it is handing Beijing a stronger foothold in Asia on a silver platter.

The irony is inescapable: A policy meant to put "America First" is instead accelerating America's retreat.


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