February 14, 2025
U.S. post-cold war supremacy is unsustainable when countered by an alliance of Russia and China. The U.S. foreign policy swamp has no common opinion on how to handle this.
One faction is arguing that supremacy is unsustainable. It calls for accepting a multi-polar world in which the big three - Russia, China and the U.S. - agree to avoid fighting each other while partitioning the globe into dedicated zones of interests. Minor conflicts would proceed on the borders but there would be by and large peace.
A second faction wants to sustain U.S. supremacy by defeating Russia before taking on China. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with their attacks on Russia, were pushing into this direction.
A third faction thinks that splitting Russia and China and to thereby neutralize (or even ally with) Russia before starting a conflict with China is the better way to proceed.
The Trump administration is clearly moving towards the third option but keeps the potential of the first option in mind.
The well choreographed events over the last days show that this is an operation with big aims in mind.
Trump started by removing the biggest roadblock for peace in Ukraine which was the threat of accepting Ukraine into NATO. That worm though is still wiggling.
Press conference by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine - NATO, Oct 03 2024
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - Well, first on NATO and membership. And as you know, at the last NATO Summit, which took place in Washington in July this year, Allies agreed, and this is important, that Ukraine's path to membership is irreversible.
...
And I think the day will come that Ukraine is a full member of NATO. And let me add to that, if somebody might think otherwise, that Russia on this issue has no vote and no veto.
Hegseth rules out NATO membership for Ukraine - CNN, Feb 12 2025
Trump: not practical for Ukraine to join NATO, get back all land - Reuters, Feb 12 2025
Wiggling:
Rutte: Ukraine was never promised NATO membership as part of peace agreement - MSN, Feb 13 2025
NATO membership for Ukraine not off the table, US official says Reuters, Feb 14 2025
A senior U.S. official on Thursday said the United States had not ruled out potential NATO membership for Ukraine or a negotiated return to its pre-2014 borders, contradicting comments made this week by the U.S. defense secretary ahead of possible peace talks to end the Ukraine war."Right now, that is still on the table," said John Coale, President Donald Trump's deputy Ukraine envoy, when asked whether the U.S. had ruled out possible NATO membership for Ukraine. Speaking in an interview with Reuters in Munich, he added that a possible return to Ukraine's pre-2014 lines was also still on the table.
All the wiggling is just that. The Ukraine will never join NATO. The worm is dead.
Trump was already working on the next point:
Trump says Russia should be readmitted to G7 - Reuters, Feb 13 2025
"I'd love to have them back. I think it was a mistake to throw them out. Look, it's not a question of liking Russia or not liking Russia. It was the G8," Trump said at the White House when he announced new U.S. reciprocal tariffs."I said, 'What are you doing? You guys - all you're talking about is Russia and they should be sitting at the table.' I think Putin would love to be back."
A nice attempt to flatter Putin but Russia is not interested:
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov: "The current G7 has significantly lost its relevance... it unites countries that are not now leaders in global economic growth... this dynamism has moved to other regions of the globe."
That attempt to pull Russia towards the U.S. side was a dud.
But how about this much, much bigger move towards a multipolar world or should we call it shared supremacy?
Trump eyes summit with Xi and Putin, says he wants military budgets halved - AlJazeerah, Feb 14 2025
United States President Donald Trump has floated talks with China and Russia to discuss reducing all three countries’ nuclear stockpiles and slashing their defence budgets in half.Speaking to reporters at the White House on Thursday, Trump said he hoped to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin “when things calm down”.
“When we straighten it all out, then I want one of the first meetings I have [to be] with President Xi of China, President Putin of Russia. And I want to say, let’s cut our military budget in half,” Trump said ahead of a summit meeting with Indian President Narendra Modi.
The Kremlin has invited President Trump to the 80th anniversary of Victory Day to celebrate the defeat of the Nazis by the allies. President Xi Jinping of China has already announced that he will be in Moscow on May 9 to take part.
This would be a superb opportunity to announce a trilateral arms reduction agreement.
Let's hope that this gets done.
Posted by b on February 14, 2025 at 11:08 UTC | Permalink