Why do the NYT/Guardian/Le Monde find this type reporting and analyzing unfit to print (& unable to do) ?
- Dances With Bears - https://johnhelmer.net -
THE CONTRADICTIONS AND CERTAINTIES IN THE TRUMP-PUTIN NEGOTIATIONS ARE SIMPLE ENOUGH FOR A 4-YEAR OLD CHILD TO UNDERSTAND AND SAY ALOUD
by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
@bears_with [2]
On arriving at the White House, it’s the first rule of American politics for the new president to overestimate his power, and for his staff and appointees to confer that exaggeration upon themselves.
The second rule for these novices and freshmen is to declare as much of this power as possible in public, and as quickly as they can. Their aim is to steal a march on their rivals within the new administration; box the Congress into a corner; and create
faits accomplis to prevent the courts from injuncting and reversing. Also, believing the President of the United States to be next to God, he and his appointees enjoy the feeling of divinity, walking on water, tossing their rivals into hell, anticipating
heavenly rewards on earth, etc. These rules are so simple, a child of four years old can understand and say them aloud; he
has [3].
Equally simple is the rule of the court and camp followers, the press first of all. Their aim is to truckle and ingratiate themselves with the new power, propagandizing the new exaggeration in exchange for patronage. This is a cold cash nexus.
In the present exaggeration of the warmaking and peacemaking between the US and Russia, this cash nexus is as obvious on the Russian side as it is on the American. It is the reason President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin have appointed special emissaries
so that the money on one side can negotiate with the money on the other side; this is what
Steven Witkoff [4], a real estate speculator, and Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF [5]),
are doing now.
Left, Steven Witkoff; right, Kirill Dmitiriev; for more on Dmitriev,
read the backfile [7].
One of the certainties of the deal-making they have
commenced [8] is that they intend the payoffs to be larger than the privatization and loans-for-shares schemes which, with White House backing, launched the Russian oligarchy thirty years ago.
For an outline of the Witkoff-Dmitriev deals, read
this [10]. Media camp followers of Trump, Putin and the oligarchs, left to right, Nima Alkhorshid with
Gilbert Doctorow [12], Larry Johnson with
Andrew Napolitano [13].
The US Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegsteth, was not included in the list President Trump
announced [14] on February 12, following his telephone conversation with President Putin, “to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful.” But hours before their conversation, Hegsteth
announced [15] that he accepts that the return to Ukraine of Russian Crimea and the four regions of Novorossiya – Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson — will not be negotiated because it is an “unrealistic objective. Chasing this illusionary goal
will only prolong the war”.
Hegsteth
added [16] that in negotiating security guarantees for the new Ukrainian border and demilitarized zone, he is ruling out US troops, identifying instead “capable European and non-European troops” who would not be under NATO orders or covered by the NATO
treaty’s mutual defence Article Five. This implied that the rump Ukraine the US negotiators anticipate would also not receive NATO status or NATO security guarantees.
Within hours Hegsteth was contradicted by John Coale, a lawyer for Trump in the past and the president’s appointee as deputy special envoy for Ukraine. Coale
called [17] Reuters for interview in Germany in order to announce that he “had not ruled out potential NATO membership for Ukraine or a negotiated return to its pre-2014 borders. ‘Right now, that is still on the table’”.
Hegsteth then contradicted himself in a single speech. Speaking in Warsaw beside the Polish Defense Minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Hegsteth
said [19]“our message is so stark to our European allies — now is the time to invest because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.” Hegsteth went on: “The invitation we receive here, if anything, would make me want to
have more troops to Poland — that’s not a policy statement, that’s just how I feel.”
The next day in Munich, Vice President J D Vance
appeared [20] to contradict both Coale and Hegsteth, downplaying the security threat from Russia for Germany, Poland and the rest of Europe. “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external
actor… To many of us on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks more and more like old entrenched interests hiding behind ugly Soviet-era words like ‘misinformation’ and ‘disinformation’…What has seemed a little bit less clear to me, and certainly I think
to many of the citizens of Europe, is what exactly it is that you’re defending yourselves for.”
Two of the US negotiators on which Trump agreed with Putin were also at the Munich Security Conference with Hegsteth and Coale – Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. It is Waltz’s National Security Council (NSC) which
in standard White House practice reviews in advance and coordinates public statements like those of Hegsteth and Coale. But this has not happened.
Rubio was publicly silent in Munich,
upstaged [21] by Vance who also took charge of the bilateral meeting with Vladimir Zelensky and a Ukrainian delegation.
At right, Vice President Vance speaking to the press, Secretary of State Rubio silent on his right. Source:
https://www.youtube.com/ [23]Sitting on Vance’s left was General Keith Kellogg, Coale’s nominal superior as White House envoy for negotiations with the Ukrainians; Coale was not present.
Waltz was not with Rubio and Vance in the Zelensky meeting. Before leaving Washington for Germany, Waltz had
announced [24] the “underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this [Ukraine] conflict going forward. President Trump is going to end it. And then in terms of security guarantees, that is squarely going to be with the Europeans.” Regarding
US aid to the Ukraine, he added: “We need to recoup those costs. And that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians, in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources, and their oil and gas, and also buying ours. Those conversations are going
to happen this week.”
On the Russian side, there is caution in interpreting what Trump and his officials are claiming for their end-of-war terms. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now a spokesman on the Security Council for the Russian military, has issued no statement on his Telegram
account. Instead, he
told [25] the Russian press: “The presidents of Russia and the US have talked at last. This is very important in and of itself…in our small, controversial but highly interdependent world there can be no chief country or planetary ruler. This is a lesson
that must be learned by the arrogant American elites and the so-called deep state (US bureaucracy). They need to understand that contacts and consultations are much more valuable than chest-thumping and the desire to see the strategic defeat of a country like
Russia. That would be a very dangerous thing anyway because it is impossible to bring us to our knees. The quicker our adversaries realize this, the better.”
None of the officials and experts reported by RT, the state press platform, was optimistic. “I believe we’re still far from any breakthroughs,”
said [25] the Vice Speaker of the Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachev, a former Foreign Ministry advisor. “It’s crucial to not jump to conclusions”, responded one academic expert. “There is hope that the dialogue initiated by both sides might help Russia
achieve the goals of the military operation,” commented another. “However, the ultimate outcome will also depend on the situation on the battlefield.”
Dmitry Rogozin [27] (right), the senator for Zaporozhye and a combatant, was sceptical of the Americans’
meaning and intention. “The United States has proved under Trump that it is the undisputed leader of the entire Western world. When they want, they start a war in Europe, and when they want, they stop fighting it, having received all the bonuses from it: a
huge increase in military revenues, testing their weapons in battle with the strongest enemy, expanding NATO at the expense of neutral countries, imposing their liquefied gas supplies on Europeans, and finally, starting with the first Maidan pitting Ukrainians
against Russians.”
“The Europeans [27] are the main loser. By handing over a significant part of their sovereignty to unknown
pederasts from the European Commission, European countries have committed an unforgivable mistake of historical proportions. Russian Russians will never forget German tanks with crosses on Russian fields and another Napoleon [Emmanuel Macron] with an elderly
Josephine [Brigitte Macron/Jean-Michel Trogneux], who sent French legionnaires and French weapons to kill Russians on Russian soil. We will never forget or forgive you. Every war ends in peace. And the main question is how perfect this world will be — how
strong and durable. And in this regard, I will express my opinion: as long as the evil herd of Bandera ghouls graze on our western borders, who have tasted and drunk Russian blood, we will have no peace. Until we finish, we will not cut out this Bandera metastasis
from the Slavic body — the threat of an imminent big war, inspired by the unfinished Ukrainian Russophobes and their Anglo-Saxon patrons, will hang over our heads.”
The only contradiction in the Russian positions being aired is between the Russians in Moscow and pro-Putin American podcasters who have been celebrating a breakthrough which no Russian acknowledges.
“Vance’s speech was brilliant, very well composed and delivered,” claimed
Gilbert Doctorow [28]. “The man has to be the very best Vice President of the United States since the days of the Founding Fathers…I think we can be very happy that a constellation of people with, I say, superior experience, superior intelligence, and
the ability to have the president’s ear have done what they have done in the last day, because it gives us hope that we are finally seeing the light at the end of this long tunnel of the Biden years.”
Doctorow also
defended [28] the oligarch deal-making. “The people who have spoken about the oligarchs that Trump surrounds himself with, these plutocrats, as if money is the only factor they have going for them, they’re intentionally defaming people who succeed, and
people who have experience that is rare. Mr. Witkoff was a businessman, but an international level businessman.”
There are two certainties Russian sources in Moscow are not ready to acknowledge publicly.
The first is that they do not detect in the US statements to date the readiness of the US to negotiate for withdrawal of US forces and nuclear missile bases from Poland, Romania, Germany and the Baltic states, or agree on the terms of the NATO rollback proposed
by the Russian Foreign Ministry’s non-aggression pacts of
December 17, 2021 [29].
The second Russian certainty is that Trump and his men are intent on escalating their war against China. That is the priority of Trump’s newly appointed Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby (right). He served at the Pentagon during Trump’s
first
term [31]; he is now
reported [32] to be the brains behind Hegsteth and “the main strategist in US President Donald Trump’s administration.”
Colby reportedly
believes [32]“first, China is the ultimate threat to the US. China is an urgent
threat, as it is outpacing the US in many key indicators and is clearly preparing for a global war. China could win such a war against the US, whereas other countries couldn’t. Second, Colby believes the US is overstretched strategically and militarily. The US has overpromised security in many places and does not have the capacity to deliver on all its commitments. So it must prioritise. Almost everything the US will do strategically and militarily must be aimed at countering China and deterring it from launching a kinetic war… We can expect the Trump administration to focus on deterring China from taking hostile action against Taiwan. So that is where smaller central and eastern European allies should look to help. They can provide direct political support. They could put particular effort into training Taiwanese troops on US soil, and they could build many thousands of drones for a US strategy of turning the Taiwan Strait into a hellscape for a Chinese invasion force.”
threat, as it is outpacing the US in many key indicators and is clearly preparing for a global war. China could win such a war against the US, whereas other countries couldn’t. Second, Colby believes the US is overstretched strategically and militarily. The US has overpromised security in many places and does not have the capacity to deliver on all its commitments. So it must prioritise. Almost everything the US will do strategically and militarily must be aimed at countering China and deterring it from launching a kinetic war… We can expect the Trump administration to focus on deterring China from taking hostile action against Taiwan. So that is where smaller central and eastern European allies should look to help. They can provide direct political support. They could put particular effort into training Taiwanese troops on US soil, and they could build many thousands of drones for a US strategy of turning the Taiwan Strait into a hellscape for a Chinese invasion force.”
Colby [33] is the grandson of William Colby, the career Russia and China hater and CIA
Director between 1973 and 1976. The new Colby is named after the old Colby’s father, a US Army officer and professor.
Privately, sources in Moscow express concern that Putin’s oligarch deal-making with Trump — and the enthusiasm for this which the pro-Putin US podcasters are displaying — may already have aroused Chinese suspicion of a betrayal of the strategic relationship
with President Xi Jinping.
According to one military source, “How do the American [podcasters] arrive at the conclusion that the US will pull forces out of the EU while remaining in NATO to provide a nuclear umbrella the Europeans don’t need – France and the UK have the bombs, warheads
and delivery systems. It’s obvious the podcasters don’t understand what the American military presence in Europe is all about. As if this so-called peace they are salivating over already isn’t just the prelude to a much larger, and by magnitudes much uglier
war.”
A Moscow political source: “Xi has seen Putin’s inability to rein in the Central Bank and the oligarchs. He has seen how vulnerable Putin has made Russia. As a result he has placed no big bets on Moscow. Putin therefore can’t betray him because Xi has anticipated
precisely this. Let’s say the relationship is not unlike that of Iran with Russia. Sometime, perhaps, maybe. Xi will watch but he will do nothing to hurt Putin because he has done nothing to help Putin.”
Article printed from Dances With Bears: https://johnhelmer.net
URLs in this post:
[2] @bears_with: https://twitter.com/bears_with
[4] Steven Witkoff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Witkoff
[7] read the backfile: https://johnhelmer.net/?s=Kirill+Dmitriev
[8] commenced : https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/11/marc-fogel-russia-trump/
[12] Gilbert Doctorow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5SfYlzEEZ4
[13] Andrew Napolitano: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIb8wZwrcYc
[15] announced: https://www.ft.com/content/8561c634-82c1-45b8-816c-4f23ba033bdd
[17] called: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-membership-ukraine-not-off-table-us-official-says-2025-02-13/
[19] said : https://www.politico.eu/article/america-military-presence-europe-not-forever-us-pete-hegseth-warns/
[21] upstaged: https://kyivindependent.com/we-need-to-recoup-those-costs-mike-waltz-on-future-of-us-aid-to-ukraine/
[27] Dmitry Rogozin: https://t.me/s/rogozin_do
[28] Gilbert Doctorow: https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
[29] December 17, 2021: https://johnhelmer.net/russias-non-aggression-pact-is-an-offer-for-germany-to-realize-the-us-wont-negotiate-because-the-blin-needle-gang-will-fight-to-the-last-german-then-run-away/
[31] term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbridge_Colby
[32] reported: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/we-can-predict-trumps-military-policy-heres-how-europe-must-react/
[33] Colby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Colby