DIPLOMACY
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Things to know about the rare earth elements agreement between the USA and Ukraine
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy offered access to the operation of these elements in the "victory plan" he presented last year. US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, announced the "Ukraine's sources in exchange for American support" agreement plan for the first time on February 3.
In a statement on February 25, Trump said, “This is a very big deal. This could be a trillion dollar deal," he said. On the same day, the Western and Ukrainian media announced the approval of the agreement, and on February 26, The Financial Times (FT) and European Pravda released the text of the agreement.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy met at the White House yesterday. Trump personally welcomed Zelenskiy at the door, where he previously used the phrase "dictator". After the discussion between the two leaders, the expected mineral agreement did not materialize and the meeting ended. Zelenskiy left the White House without signing the agreement.
What does the deal cover?
The document titled "Bilateral Agreement Determining the Rules and Conditions of Investment and Restructuring Fund" consists of 11 articles (the United States states that the work on the document is ongoing).
Kiev and Washington have decided to establish a joint Investment and Restructuring Fund. The Ukrainian government will transfer 50 percent of the revenues from the sale of state-owned natural resources (minerals, oil, gas) to this fund, but the resources within the scope of activity of Naftogaz and Ukrnafta will not be included in this.
The accumulated funds will be reinvested in Ukrainian projects at least once a year in order to contribute to the country's security, protection and prosperity. The USA, on the other hand, "makes long-term commitments for the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine". The parties undertake to determine the details by a separate agreement on the fund.
The first draft agreement, which was leaked to the media, imposed much heavier obligations on Ukraine: it had to transfer 50 percent of the revenues from natural resource sales to the fund until the total of these contributions reached 500 billion dollars. Kiev also had to invest twice the amount that the US would provide after the agreement was signed. In addition, the fund was expected to be 100 percent owned by the USA. These articles were removed from the agreement.
Kiev also insisted on the inclusion of security guarantees by the USA in the document. As a result, Washington "supports Ukraine's efforts to achieve the necessary security guarantees to create lasting peace" was added to the text.
The agreement was approved by Ukraine's key ministries — the Ministries of justice, economy and foreign affairs. The FT's sources in Kiev said it was just a "frame agreement" and that all possible disputes were planned to be resolved until the funding was established.
The idea of providing Western partners with access to Ukrainian natural resources was put forward in the "victory plan" that Zelenskiy officially presented in October last year.
In article 4 on the country's strategic economic potential, he proposed to sign an agreement with its partners on "common protection of critical resources in the country" and joint investment.
“Trillions of U.S. dollars worth of natural resources and critical metals — especially uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and other strategic valuable resources,” the plan said.
According to the FT, the proposal to include this article in the plan came from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a supporter Donald Trump. Zelenskiy showed the plan to Trump while he was in the USA in September last year.
Agreement process
The negotiations were tough. On February 12, nine days after Trump announced the possibility of the agreement, US Secretary of the Fire Scott Bessent arrived in Kiev with a ready-made draft.
According to the FT's news, the text was given to the Ukrainian side just three hours before Bessent's meeting with Zelenskiy, and at the meeting, the Minister of Finance demanded that the document be signed immediately. Zelenskiy definitely refused this.
According to the newspaper, he was talking to the American representative so loudly that it could be heard in these neighboring rooms. After the meeting, Zelenskiy told members of the press that he would sign the agreement at the Munich Security Conference, as well as the "shaking, obviously unstleny Bessent".
In Munich, Ukraine conveyed its amendment proposals to the USA and the signing of the agreement was postponed again. On February 18, talks were held in Riyadh between Russia and the USA, with whom they agreed to start the solution process.
Zelenskiy reacted very negatively and stated that "Moscow and Washington are our people and our lives, they will not be able to negotiate without us on the end of the war."
In response, Trump hardened his speech to the Ukrainian leader. He claimed that Zelenskiy's support fell to 4 percent, describing him as an “unelected dictator” (according to the February 2025 survey of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 57 percent of Ukrainians stated that they trust Zelenskiy, with 37 percent not).
Trump also insisted that the $500 billion included in the deal is money that Ukraine owes for the support of the United States and that Washington plans to take back through the source agreement.
Then Trump stated that either Ukraine will go to the agreement and pay 400-500 billion dollars in compensation to the US, or it will have problems.
"President Trump is clearly very disappointed that President Zelenskiy does not want to accept our proposal, which I think he will eventually accept," his advisor Mike Waltz explained the reaction of the U.S. president.
Zelenskiy categorically rejected the half-trillion dollar compensation claim, saying, “I have no intention of accepting $500 billion in aid from the United States. Whether someone likes it or not. I don't even know 100 billion dollars, we agreed with President Biden, this is a grant! The grant is not an obligation. We will not repay the grants... I am not signing anything that ten generations of Ukrainians will pay," he said.
The final version of the agreement pleased Zelenskiy. According to the UNIAN agency, Zelenskiy told members of the press on February 26, "The most important thing for me was that we did not owe, no matter where and what was heard in the media. There is neither 500, nor 350 billion, nor 100 billion in the agreement. Because it would not be fair to us," he said.
Donald Trump also shows interest in Russia's rare earth elements. Washington and Moscow announced that they are holding talks on "major economic development agreements". “I would like to make a deal to provide access to Russian rare elements,” Trump said.
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with members of the government on rare earth metals. A little later, in an interview with the presenter of the VGTRK to Pavel Zarubin, Putin stated that Moscow is ready to "draw foreign partners to our so-called new, historic territory that has returned to the Russian Federation".
Putin said, “There are also certain [rare earth] sources there. We are ready to work with our partners, including the Americans,” he added.
What resources are there in Ukraine and why is it necessary for the US?
What exactly Trump initially meant when he mentioned an agreement on access to Ukraine's natural resources — just rare earth metals (17 elements such as scandium, yttrium, lanthanum, praseodymium, neodymium) or a more broadly “critical minerals” (50 elements including lithium, cobalt, bismuth, graphite, titanium, zirconium, according to the US Geological Survey Service's 2022 list).
Rare earth metals are used in the production of strong permanent magnets, smartphones and other consumer electronics products, as well as defense systems including military aircraft engines, missile systems and lasers.
According to the data of the Gazprombank Economic Forecast Center, the total volume of the world market of rare earth elements does not exceed $15 billion per year.
The published text of the agreement refers to Ukraine's “investment plans in mineral deposits, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other raw materials, infrastructure, ports and state enterprises”.
CBS states that Trump's emphasis on rare earth elements is about the fact that American industry is heavily dependent on China and its raw material capacities in this regard.
According to GlobalData data, China provides about 70 percent of the world's rare earth elements production and 90 percent of global refining capacity. This means that even the countries that produce rare earth elements themselves sent them to China for processing.
On the other hand, according to the AFP agency, Ukraine is a major manufacturer of manganese, titanium, graphite (the last of which is used in lithium-ion batteries), which has lithium reserves (but these have not been processed) but rare earth element reserves have not been confirmed. Speaking to the agency, USGS expert Elena Safirova said, "Ukraine has several deposits containing rare earth elements, but none of them are operated."
On the other hand, Ukraine has a significant amount of iron ore, titanium and coal (in Zaporozhye) assets. According to the data of The Economist magazine, Ukraine provides 4 to 7 percent of the world's titanium supply.
Not as much as it seems: Ukraine's rare earth metal reserves scale
However, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Ukraine is based entirely on Soviet estimates of rare earth metal reserves. These geological surveys were mainly carried out in the 1960s-1980s.
“Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment [rare earth metal reserves],” Roman Opimah, former director-general of the State Geology and Mining Services of Ukraine, told AFP, adding that some of the information on such sources is confidential.
According to S&P, Novopoltavskoe (Zaporozhye), one of the rare earth metal deposits mentioned by the Ukrainian government, was discovered by Soviet geologists in 1970 and is the only deposit with proven reserves.
Other deposits —Azov and Mazurovskoye— were accompanied by the military intervention under the control of Russia.
In addition, the scale of rare earth metal reserves in Ukraine is also a matter of discussion.
Morgan Bazilian, Director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado Mining School, said: “I don't know there are significant reserves of rare earth elements in Ukraine. This is one of the simple new fantasies in which we will magically solve our problem of access to critical mines thanks to a country in a state of war. The closest similarity to my mind is a very similar exaggeration regarding the trillions of dollars of mines allegedly located underground in Afghanistan," he commented.
Independent geological consultant Tony Mariano also said, "There are no economically viable rare land deposits in Ukraine."
DIPLOMACY
Trump threatens to 'withdraw support' Zelenskiy, Europe is in shock
Published
1 day ago 01/03/2025YazarUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's meeting with Donald Trump ended in disaster on Friday after the two leaders got into an unusual debate with Russia in front of the world media in the White House over the war.
Zelenskiy saw the meeting at the Oval Office as an opportunity to convince the US not to agree with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Instead, US President Trump and Vice President JD Vance reminded Zelenskiy that if he did not prefer peace, he would be left alone in the war with Russia, saying that he disrespected them. A US official told Reuters that the Ukrainian leader was told to leave the country.
The meaning expected to be signed between Ukraine and the USA for the exploitation of Ukraine's rich natural resources was also not signed.
While leaving the White House, Trump told members of the press about the discussion he had with Zelenskiy in the Oval Office. Stating that his meeting with Zelenskiy did not go well, Trump said, "He played his hand too much. We are looking for peace, we are not looking for someone who will not make peace. I am looking for peace. We don't want to enter a ten-year war and play games," he said.
During the meeting, Vance emphasized the need for diplomacy to resolve the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, while Zelenskiy brought his arms together and said that Putin could not be trusted in any meeting and stated that Vance had never visited Ukraine.
Zelenskiy challenged Trump for his softer approach to Putin, urging him not to "make concessions to a murderer".
Trump, on the other hand, accused Zelenskiy of disrespecting the USA on his Truth Social account. "I decided that President Zelenskiy was not ready for peace if America was involved," he wrote. “He can come back when he's ready for peace,” he added.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a statement on Telegram that his troops were with Zelenskiy and that Ukraine's force came from his unit.
European leaders are worried
While the anxious Ukrainians watching the incident from afar experience a big shock, they are worried about whether the US military aid that the country relies on will continue. Europeans are the same.
European leaders, who were excluded from Trump's peace negotiations process with Russia, jumped into the defense of Zelenskiy, from French President Emmanuel Macron to the new German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, who said "we should never confuse the aggressor and the victim in this terrible war".
"Russia is an aggressive and Ukraine is the people who are attacked," Macron wrote. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez shared "Ukraine, Spain is with you".
Friedrich Merz, "Dear Vladimir Zelenskiy, we stand with Ukraine in good time and difficult times. In this terrible war, the attacker and the victim should never be confused," he said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on social media, "Your honor glorifies the courage of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. Dear President Zelenskiy, you are never alone. We will continue to work with you for a just and lasting peace," he said.
European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas emphasized that Ukraine is a part of Europe and said, “We stand by Ukraine. We will continue to support Ukraine's fight against the attacks. Today, it has become more clear that the free world needs a new leader. It is up to us Europeans to accept this challenge," he said.
The Estonian Foreign Minister said, "If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no such thing as Ukraine. Estonia's support for Ukraine continues unwaveringly. It's time for Europe to take a step," he said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also shared, "Dear @ZelenskyyUa, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone".
An official from the Ukrainian delegation in Washington told Reuters that Zelenskiy had spoken on the phone with Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU Council President Antonio Costa.
While the reactions from Trump's Republican Party were mixed in Congress, Democrats criticized the way Trump handled the meeting.
The Ukrainian leader led the meeting in non-native English and was silenced by Trump and Vance as the meeting progressed.
“You're not in a good position. You don't have cards right now. You start to have the cards with us," Trump said.
Zelenskiy said, "I'm not playing cards, I'm very serious, Mr. President."
“You're playing cards. You are gambling with the lives of millions of people, you are gambling with the Third World War," Trump continued.
Former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev wrote on Telegram that the Ukrainian leader was "ruthlessly scolded".
Early check-out
After the talks, Trump instructed his two senior aides to tell Zelenskiy that it was time to leave, and officials were even preparing to serve lunch to the delegations, according to a White House official.
The official added that the Ukrainians were instructed to leave even though they wanted to continue the talks.
This dispute meant that Ukraine and the US could not sign a much-laud mineral deal that Kiev hoped Trump would encourage Ukraine's war efforts and potentially gain support for a new round of aid from Republicans in Congress.
This conflict also means that the efforts of European leaders to convince Trump to provide security guarantees for Ukraine have also been in vain. As a matter of fact, Trump threatened the USA to withdraw its support from Ukraine.
"Either you're going to make a deal or we're not there, and if we're not, you're going to fight," Trump told Zelenskiy.
“You will be in a much better position when we sign the agreement. But you're not grateful at all and it's not a nice thing. I'll be honest. This is not a nice thing," Trump emphasized and reminded that Putin want to make a deal.
Vance also said that it was disrespectful for Zelenskiy to come to the Oval Office to defend his own position, and Trump agrees with that view.
“You didn't thank,” Vance said. Zelenskiy raised his voice and replied: “I have thanked the American people many times.”
Zelenskiy, who has won billions of dollars of US weapons and moral support from the Biden administration, faces a sharply different attitude from Trump. Trump wants to quickly end the three-year war, improve relations with Russia and make up for the money spent to support Ukraine.
"I hope I will be remembered as a peacemaker," Trump said.
Trump previously told Zelenskiy that his soldiers were incredibly brave and that the U.S. wanted to see the war end and the money used in “different ways, such as reconstruction.”
In recent weeks, Trump had begun to charge Zelenskiy, who opposed his own stance, criticizing his dealing with the war, calling him a "dictator" and calling him to accept the minerals agreement.
DIPLOMACY
Swedish intelligence chief calls for war preparation against Russia
Published
2 days ago 28/02/2025AuthorSwedish Intelligence Chief Thomas Nilsson said that Europe should not give up on alert against Russia and that Sweden should prepare for war after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Nilsson claimed that Russia could establish bases on the border of Finland and in the Arctic region.
Swedish Intelligence Chief Thomas Nilsson said that Europe is in a different position than the United States in terms of being on the alert against Russia and therefore Sweden should prepare for war after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
Speaking to Politico, Nilsson said, "When the war in Ukraine ends or eases, we are sure that the Russians will return to our region."
The intelligence chief added that Russia was talking about building bases along the new border line with Finland and up to the Arctic region.
According to Nilsson, US President Donald Trump “regularly gives a vote of confidence” to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Europeans, especially Russia's neighbors, “can't afford to be on the lookout”.
In addition, the Swedish intelligence chief added, "We see some patterns," stating that "awareness should be increased in the hybrid field".
Earlier last year, Swedish army commander-in-chief Mikael Büden and Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin called on citizens to prepare for a possible war.
Authorities were advised to keep the shelters in operation, the adoption of the plan for emergency water supply and food supply, and speed up preparations to repel a possible attack.
Putin described his no territorial claims against NATO countries and the threat to attack the alliance if Russia wins victoring the conflict in Ukraine as “complete nonsense”.
Putin stated that Moscow was interested in improving relations, but the West was “artificially creating problems” because they did not want to have a “rival like Russia”.
DIPLOMACY
Russia and the US agree on the financing of diplomatic missions
Published
2 days ago 28/02/2025AuthorDelegations to Russia and the USA agreed on steps for the smooth financing of diplomatic missions during their meetings in Istanbul. Russia also proposed the restart of direct flights to the US. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mariya Zaharova stated that the lack of communication between the two countries is an important problem in relations.
According to the statement made by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Russian and US delegations agreed on the steps to be taken to finance the activities of their diplomatic missions without any problems during the negotiations they held in Istanbul on Thursday.
Russia also proposed the resumption of direct flights to the USA.
“In line with the instructions of the heads of the foreign ministries, ways to overcome the large number of 'disturbing' elements inherited from previous American administrations have been discussed in detail. An agreement has been reached on joint steps to ensure that the activities of the diplomatic missions of Russia and the United States are mutually seamlessly financed and to create suitable conditions for the diplomats to carry out their duties.”
In the statement, "The need for practical results aimed at creating conditions for the improvement of bilateral relations in line with the interests of the people of our countries was especially emphasized. As a concrete plan, it was proposed to the American side to evaluate the possibility of direct aircraft restarts," it said.
Aleksandr Darchiyev, Director of the North American Department of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, represented Russia, and the United States were represented by Deputy Secretary of State and Sonata Coulter, Responsible for Russia and Central European Policies.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mariya Zaharova said at a press conference yesterday that the biggest disturbing factor in relations between the United States and Russia is that contacts between countries are “completely blocked.”
Zaharova said, "The biggest disturbing factor was the lack of the opportunity to communicate with each other. Because as soon as there is communication, there is a chance to find mutually acceptable solutions or develop mutual understanding," he said.