In just five days, Trump has set the country back nearly 100 years
The president’s new slogan might as well be “We were better off 95 years ago than we are today.”
President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol on Tuesday. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)
With a modesty we have come to expect of him, President Donald Trump informed Congress on Tuesday
night that he had already ushered in “the greatest and most successful
era in the history of our country.” He told the assembled lawmakers that
he “accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished
in four or eight years.”
Armed
with a portfolio of fabricated statistics, Trump judged that “the first
month of our presidency is the most successful in the history of our
nation — and what makes it even more impressive is that you know who No.
2 is? George Washington.”
Republican lawmakers laughed, whooped and cheered.
Usually, such talk from Trump is just bravado. But let us give credit where it is due: Trump has
made history. In fact, it’s not much of an exaggeration to say that,
over the course of the last five days, he has set the United States back
100 years.
Trump
on Monday implemented the largest tariff increase since 1930, abruptly
reversing an era of liberalized trade that has prevailed since the end
of the Second World War. He launched this trade war just three days
after dealing an equally severe blow to the postwar security order that
has maintained prosperity and freedom for 80 years. Trump’s ambush of
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, followed by
the cessation of U.S. military aid to the outgunned ally, has left
allies reeling and Moscow exulting. The Kremlin’s spokesman proclaimed
that Trump is “rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations” in a
way that “largely aligns with our vision.”
And our erstwhile friends? “The United States launched a trade war against Canada,
its closest partner and ally, their closest friend,” Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday. “At the same time, they’re
talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin: a
lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense.”
It
only makes sense if, against all evidence, you believe, as Trump
apparently does, that Americans were better off 95 years ago than they
are today.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau address reporters in Ottawa on Tuesday. (Spencer Colby/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
We’re
apparently going to have to re-learn that lesson the hard way. The
blizzard of executive orders that Trump has issued, though
constitutionally alarming, can be rescinded by a future president. Elon
Musk’s wanton sabotage of federal agencies and the federal workforce,
though hugely damaging, can be repaired over time. But there is no easy
fix for Trump’s smashing of the security and trade arrangements that
have kept us safe and free for generations.
“We’re
certainly not in the postwar world anymore,” Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth
College economist and fellow at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics, tells me. He calculates that Trump’s hike in
tariffs is the largest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 accelerated the nation’s slide into the Great Depression. And Trump’s current tariffs, which in Irwin’s calculation affect imports worth about 4.8 percent of gross domestic product,
will have an even greater impact on the economy than did Smoot-Hawley,
which affected imports worth 1.4 percent of GDP, and the McKinley
administration’s tariffs during the 1890s, which affected imports worth
2.7 percent of GDP (and which also were followed by a prolonged
depression).
And Trump keeps escalating. After Trudeau said on Tuesday that Trump wants “a total collapse of the Canadian economy,
because that will make it easier to annex us,” Trump mocked “Governor
Trudeau” on social media and vowed that “when he puts on a Retaliatory
Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a
like amount!”
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 1,300 points. Inflation
forecasts are increasing (the free-trading Peterson Institute says
Trump’s tariffs will cost the typical American household $1,200 per year).
Retailers such as Target and Best Buy are warning about higher prices.
The Atlanta Fed’s model of real GDP growth, which a month ago saw 2.3
percent growth in the first quarter, now sees a contraction in the first
quarter of 2.8 percent. And Trump is threatening to hit more countries
with more tariffs, on metals, cars, farm products and more, in the
coming weeks.
During his first term, Trump tweeted that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”
— but he had the good sense not to test this in a major way. Now, we
all get to experience what actually happens when we launch one.
Trump’s
moves to dismantle the trade architecture of the last century is all
the more destabilizing because he is simultaneously moving to knock down
the alliances that maintained security for most of that same period. As
The Post’s Francesca Ebel reported from Moscow,
Putin’s government sees Trump’s humiliation of Zelensky as a “huge
gift” that furthered Russia’s ambitions of dividing the West. Former
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev called it a “proper slap down” of “the
insolent pig” Zelensky. Hungary’s repressive leader, Viktor Orban, also celebrated: “Thank you, Mr. President!”
And
while Trump blames the victim for Russia’s full-scale invasion of
Ukraine, China is growing bolder in its desire to take Taiwan. Hong
Kong’s South China Morning Post quoted analysts
calling the Trump-Zelensky rift part of a “systemic reordering” of
geopolitics in which “Beijing was positioned to capitalize on the ‘rapid
disintegration of the West’ that legitimizes ‘Beijing’s vision for a
post-American world order.’”
As
the authoritarians celebrate, freedom’s defenders weep. Lech Walesa,
the celebrated champion of Polish democracy, joined other former
political prisoners in a letter to Trump expressing “horror and disgust”
at the American president’s treatment of Zelensky, saying they were
“terrified by the fact that the atmosphere in the Oval Office during
this conversation reminded us of the one we remember well from
interrogations by the Security Service and from courtrooms in communist
courts.”
Democratic leaders across Europe, and across the world, spoke up in defense of Ukraine. “We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war,” wrote incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Now, these democratic leaders must contemplate rebuilding what Trump has destroyed. “Today,” European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas wrote on the day of Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine, “it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.”
In the House chamber on Tuesday night, there was little sign of the United States that until now has led the free world.
Republicans,
once the party of free trade, applauded Trump’s vows to impose tariffs —
or additional tariffs — on Canada, Mexico, the European Union, China,
India, Brazil and South Korea.
“We’ve
been ripped off by nearly every country on Earth, and we will not let
that happen any longer,” he said. As for the pain his trade policies are
already causing, he said: “There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re
okay with that. It won’t be much.”
Trump
spoke — repeatedly — about his election victory, about the “radical
left lunatics” who prosecuted him, and about his culture-war battles
against transgender Americans and against “diversity, equity and
inclusion.” With taunts and nonsense claims (more than 1 million people
over age 150 receiving Social Security!), he goaded the Democrats, who
answered him with messages (“False,” “No Kings Live Here”) on signs and
on T-shirts. When Al Green, a 77-year-old Democratic lawmaker from
Texas, waved his walking cane and shouted at Trump that he had “no
mandate to cut Medicaid,” Republican leaders, who allowed members of
their party to shout “bulls---” at President Joe Biden from the House
floor, called in the sergeant at arms to evict him.
It
took nearly an hour for Trump to talk about trade. He didn’t get to
Ukraine until nearly an hour and 20 minutes into his speech, and then it
was to level the false claim that Ukraine had taken $350 billion from
the United States, “like taking candy from a baby,” while Europe spent
only $100 billion on Ukraine — dramatically overstating the U.S.
contribution and understating Europe’s.
“Do
you want to keep it going for another five years?” he said, looking at
the Democrats. “Pocahontas says yes,” Trump added, referring
contemptuously to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts).
At
this, Vice President JD Vance chortled — and the Republican side, once
the home of proud internationalists, responded with derision, cheers and
applause.
And so collapses the architecture of freedom and prosperity: with a lie, a taunt and a guffaw.