3/5/25
The Trump administration had announced on Monday that it would immediately cease all military support for Ukraine. This will only change when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to make peace with Russia, Washington said. 1] The decision affects more than one billion US dollars of supplies of weapons and ammunition, which were planned for the near future, but are now not being made. According to information from Kiev, a good 30 percent of all deliveries to the Ukrainian armed forces came from the USA. It was unclear how long you could last without them, it was heard from Ukraine. It is not yet known whether the supply ban also affects US weapons that European states pass on to the Ukrainian armed forces from their stocks. It is also uncertain whether the freezing of US support also applies to the reconnaissance data with which the USA has so far supplied Ukraine. 2] If this were the case, the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to attack Russian positions would be significantly restricted from now on. Even more serious it would be, the Trump administration also took communication satellites into its embargo.
The EU countries - unwilling to support rapid armistice and peace negotiations under the leadership of the United States - are now under double pressure. In recent days, they have put themselves in the scene as the last remaining supporters of Ukraine. With US aid to Kiev now disappearing, it must be replaced as far as possible. This requires drastic efforts from the states of Europe, both financially and in terms of armaments, and they are dependent on either NATO or even directly on the United States for important military capabilities. If they want to break the dependence and become a military world power in the future, they must begin their own unprecedented armament. Whether they can already replace US capacities is currently being tested with satellite systems. The Ukrainian armed forces are currently dependent on Starlink satellites of the US company SpaceX, which belongs to the tech oligarch and Trump employee Elon Musk, in their war. The French company Eutelsat is currently examining the extent to which it could imitate the functions of the Starlink satellites [3], should Musk, as some suspect, include them in the US embargo. Eutelsat cooperates closely with the EU.
In addition, the EU is preparing a gigantic arms programme of its own, the basics of which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented in Brussels yesterday, Tuesday. The name of the program, "ReArm Europe", suggests misleadingly that the European states are not or poorly armed. In fact, the EU countries and the UK are spending huge, ever-increasing sums on their armed forces. From 2014 to 2024, the military expenditure of the EU member states more than doubled from a total of 147 billion euros to 326 billion euros.[ 4] According to the previous plans, a further increase of more than one hundred billion euros could be expected by 2027. Great Britain, which cooperates closely with the EU in the Ukraine war, is spending the equivalent of almost 69 billion euros on its armed forces in the current financial year and wants to increase its military budget at a rapid pace. Within the framework of ReArm Europe, the EU now wants to provide 150 billion euros in loans to support the Member States in the procurement of war equipment. In addition, national military spending is to be exempted from the EU's debt rules. According to von der Leyen, a further 650 billion euros can be mobilized nationally for the rearmament - in total up to 800 billion euros. 5]
In addition to the EU plans, the Union parties and the SPD, which will presumably provide the next federal government, agreed yesterday, Tuesday, on a complete demarcation of the rearmament of the Bundeswehr. Accordingly, there should not only be a new debt program with a volume of 500 billion euros, from which all kinds of infrastructure projects can be financed. This is intended, on the one hand, to boost the economy in general. In addition, however, the repair of roads, bridges and rails is considered a contribution to the improvement of "military mobility", which is inevitable if Germany is to fulfill its function as a NATO hub for the transit of troops and material to the NATO eastern flank. 6] Above all, however, all armament expenditures that exceed one percent of economic output should in future be exempted from the debt brake. This will mean that any debt can be taken on in the future to finance the upgrading of the Bundeswehr - precisely tailored to the procurement wishes of the military. 7] The measure has the advantage over the initially planned further debt program ("special fund") of 400 billion euros that it makes unlimited defense debt possible - even well above 400 billion euros.
A background paper, which was originally written to establish the debt program of 400 billion euros, shows what the funds could be used for. It was signed by the president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Moritz Schularick, the former Airbus CEO and current president of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), Thomas Enders, the former head of Telekom and current Airbus supervisory board chairman René Obermann and venture capital entrepreneur Jeanette zu Fürstenberg. As the paper states, it is important to establish "asymmetric superiority" on the "modern battlefield". For example, it is important to create a "wide-scale drone wall over the NATO eastern flank", for which several tens of thousands of combat drones are needed. 8] Underwater surveillance in the Baltics must also be strengthened. Germany should initiate a "SPARTA" project (Strategic Projection and Advanced Resilience Technology Alliance) across the cross the side in order to promote "the immediate setting-up of large-sized armament programs with a focus on new technologies and sovereign intra-European procurement". The signatories of the paper advise against the further purchase of US armor, such as the F-35 fighter jet, - otherwise one ends up in "a continued dependence". 9]
[1] Erica L. Green, Eric Schmitt, David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes: The order came just days after Trump had a heated exchange with Zelensky in the Oval Office. nytimes.com 03.03.2025.
[2] Jill Lawless: Trump's halt on military aid will hurt Ukraine's defenses. But it may not be fatal. apnews.com 04.03.2025.
[3] Peggy Hollinger, Maxine Kelly: Starlink rival in talks to boost satellite services to Ukraine. ft.com 04.03.2025.
[4] The defense of the EU in figures. consilium.europa.u.
[5] Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package. ec.europa.eu 04.03.2025.
[6] S. to this Free Marching Routes and So that the tanks roll.
[7] What does Friedrich Merz' massive billion-dollar plan bring? spiegel.de 04.03.2025.
[8], [9] Economist Schularick concretizes armament proposals. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 05.03.2025.