March 19, 2025
The publicly known results of yesterday's telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are only minor:
In the run up to today's call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin.But the results look like there's little to shout about.
The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.
Trump can point to Putin's pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.
But it's nowhere near the full and unconditional ceasefire that the US wanted from Russia.
The length of the call, more than two hours, suggests that there were more items to talk about than just a ceasefire in Ukraine. However neither side has given more than a hints of what these items might have been.
The Russian pledge to immediately halt attacks on energy facilities is not new at all.
The Russian readout of yesterday's talk is explicitly mentioning a ceasefire on energy facilities:
During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.
The White House readout acknowledges the offer but does not confirm a date for its acceptance:
The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.
Ukraine seems to have not yet agreed to such a deal (machine translation):
Ukraine did not rule out support for the proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure.This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a conversation with journalists.
"We have always supported the position not to strike with any weapons on the energy sector," Zelensky said.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine made it clear that he has not yet made a decision.
"After we receive details from the American president, from the American side, we will prepare and voice our response to the proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, and the team will be ready for technical negotiations," Zelensky said.
Putin's concession, to immediately stop attacks on energy infrastructure, has for now (again) been rejected. Last night the Ukrainian side continued to attack Russian energy facilities:
On the night of 19 March 2025, several hours after the high-level Russian-American talks were completed and after the President of the Russian Federation accepted the U.S. President's offer to temporary cease strikes at the Ukrainian power infrastructure, the Kiev regime launched a deliberate attack by three fixed-wing UAVs at a power infrastructure facility in stanitsa Kavkazkaya (Krasnodar region).This facility ensures oil transshipment from railway tank cars into the pipeline system of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) international oil transport company.
There was a fire and some damage caused by it.
It is quite clear that it is one more provocation deliberately prepared by the Kiev regime aimed at undermining the U.S. President's peace initiatives.
The first agreement to stop attacks on energy facilities was made in the fall of 2023as the FT reported in October last year:
Other attempts to broker a deal have also foundered in the past. Four Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Kyiv and Moscow had come to a “tacit agreement” last autumn to not strike each other’s energy facilities.As a result, Russia that winter refrained from the type of large-scale attacks it had conducted on Ukraine’s power infrastructure in 2022-23, according to two Ukrainian officials and a person in Washington with knowledge of the situation.
That agreement was meant to pave the way towards a formal deal, the people said.
However, Kyiv restarted drone attacks on Russia’s oil facilities in February and March this year, as it sought to increase pressure on Moscow after its failed 2023 counteroffensive.
A second agreement prohibiting attacks on energy infrastructure was in the making in August 2024. The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk oblast of Russia prevented it from being accepted. In October 2024 Ukraine was back at begging for such a deal:
Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter.Kyiv was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, said the people, who included senior Ukrainian officials.
For unknown reasons the agreement was not revived at that time.
Ukraine's last night attack on another Russian energy facility is the third time it has prevented or abolished such a deal. Russia has however always been willing to pursue it.
Ukraine is presumably determined to blockade any deal, even a small 30 day ceasefire with regards to energy facilities.
Unless the Trump administration puts more pressure on Kiev there will be no chanceto achieve any kind of ceasefire deal.
Posted by b on March 19, 2025 at 13:53 UTC | Permalink