Merkel's military advisor Erich Vad: German army is in a state of miserable
Brigadier General Erich Vad, who served as the military advisor to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, stated in an interview with NachDenkSeiten that the policy pursued in Europe escalated the war in Ukraine and that this could lead to dangerous consequences. Vad stated that the USA and Russia wanted to end the war and were negotiating on this issue. Criticizing the war rhetoric of some political and intellectual groups in Germany, Vad said, "War requires a political decision. And this decision will be made in Washington and Moscow, not in Europe or Germany," he said.
Erich Vad, the military advisor of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in his interlory with journalist Marcus Klöckner on the NachDenkSeiten portal, touched on important issues such as how the policies pursued by the European Union (EU) affect the current situation and the role of Germany in a possible war scenario.
Klöckner's "The media is full of news about the war in Ukraine. There is often talk of escalation towards a war between NATO and Russia. Many people say, 'What's going on here?' He asks. What is your answer?” Erich Vad gave this answer to the question:
“In the West, in Europe, policies are insanifying and escalating a deadlock in Ukraine where there will be no military solution. This is dangerous. This can lead to what we want to avoid: in Europe and the war with Europe. On the other hand, it seems that the US and probably Russia also want to end the Ukrainian war. Explanations on this subject seem clear. Both countries are working with mediators for ceasefire negotiations. This gives hope.”
Klöckner's "So if the US and Russia say they want the war to end, is this how it is?" Upon the question, Vad said, "Exactly like this and Europeans will not be able to influence this despite the political discourses that claim otherwise. Basically, the situation is this: only the USA and Russia really have a say in terms of war and peace in Europe and Ukraine. It's been like this since 1945, so for 80 years. Putin will express this with a large military parade in Red Square on May 9. Maybe even Trump will be there, and both winning forces of World War II will stress together who has a say in Europe," he said.
In response to Klöckner, Vad said that the media and politicians spread fears of war and talked about Russia's possible attack on NATO and Europe, “Many observers, analysts and experts make the mistake of interpreting the ongoing developments to suit their expected or desired situation. This was also the case in the last two years of the war, in which the territorial and local limited successful military attacks of Ukrainians were celebrated in the media and depicted as sustainable, even the developments that changed the general situation, determined the fate of the war and led to victory. Meanwhile, even ordinary people see that the military situation is a disaster for Ukraine," he said.
'These can lead to 'domino theories', 'self-fulfilling prophecies' and therefore fatal and wrong developments'
“The narrative, which is currently used politically and media, is that the Russians, who are struggling to occupy Donbass and who are only moving very slowly, are on their way to occupying the whole of Ukraine to attack NATO and Europe. These can lead to dangerous 'domino theories', 'self-fulfilling prophecies' and therefore fatal and false developments. For example, the ten-year Vietnam War, which led to the large destruction of the country of the United States and the death of about 3 million people, is based on such a domino theory. Such domino theories legitimized numerous other open and secret regime change operations by the United States in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia during the Cold War," he said.
“Similarly, it also applies to the fears that Russia's routinely held in the autumn Zapad-2025 military exercise with Belarus will attack the Baltic countries, thus triggering a large-scale war in Europe, and therefore the last summer we will spend peacefully,” Vad said.
'I see a close ceasefire being prepared politically in Washington and Moscow, Riyadh or Jeddah that relieves me'
Klöckner's "Is this your conclusion?" To the question, Vad said, "Of course, almost everything is possible and I take the concerns of neighboring countries very seriously. But at the same time, you should be careful not to create panic in time for the best public publishing and not to do so during the ceasefire negotiations that are already ongoing. Of course, Russia's military exercises send escalating political messages, especially in times of war. This was also the case in 'Steadfast Defender', NATO's largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War. There too - this time Russian - media propagandists somehow wanted to fuel a close war. This is, in a sense, part of the so-called information front, but military exercises cannot be concluded that they will automatically lead to war. Every war requires a relevant political decision. I do not see a major war in Washington and Moscow, Riyadh or Jeddah right now, on the contrary, I see a immitent ceasefire being prepared politically that relieves me," he replied.
Klöckner's "Should German soldiers still 'save the world'? Why is it like that?” To the question, Vad said, "This is a very exaggerated question. Indeed, in Germany, we have a political, intellectual and media group that seems to be partially ready for war, because this does not affect them existentially and they do not realistically evaluate such situations at all. Erich Maria Remarque once expressed this very beautifully: 'I thought every person was against war, until I found out that some people, especially those who do not have to go to the front, are in favor of war,'" he replied.
'Apart from the current political discourse in Germany, the level of military preparedness is quite low'
In addition, Vad said, "Apart from the current political discourse in Germany, the level of military preparedness is quite low. Despite private assets and funds allocated for armament, it will take years for the German military to become operational. Military commissioner Eva Högl's latest report shows once again what the German military really is. Some politicians, especially those who wanted to decorate themselves with war rhetoric, were conscientious objectors, and moreover, previously as politicians, they did everything to cut short and keep the German army small. Now they are spreading a war hysteria that worries me. While fueling the war in politics and the media, I can't take it seriously if he doesn't have the skills," he added.
Klöckner's "A huge armament program is currently being tried to be started in Germany. What would happen in the event of a war with Russia? You have defined a scenario in your book," Vad said, "If Ukraine escalates the war, we will experience war in Europe, and this means; war will happen in our own country. Germany is a gathering ground and logistics center for NATO, both with and without the US. Germany still has dozens of important American military facilities and headquarters where military and intelligence operations are carried out as well as military operations around the world," he said.
Vad said, "Just because of our geographical location, Poland as well as Germany will be in the middle of the war. Therefore, war cannot be a rational option for Germany. We should focus on deterrence. This is our choice as an _expression_ of our vital interests: there should be no war at the center of Europe. If this happens, we will have done everything wrong from our national interest position," he said.
'In the event of a war in Europe, our country returns to what happened at the end of the Second World War 80 years ago'
Stating that the USA has never waged a war in which its country is in danger of extinction, Vad said, "Geographically, the USA is more than 5 thousand kilometers away from Europe. A European war in Europe or even a limited nuclear war would no longer affect the US and would be a rational, plannable option for the US. But Germany should pay attention to its own opinion, not the opinion of the Americans. From our point of view, our existence is in danger. In the event of a war in Europe, our country returns to what was at the end of the Second World War 80 years ago, and even worse," he said.
“Only then were nuclear weapons really not in operation,” Vad said, “That's right. Until 1942, the German and American nuclear plans were roughly the same level. Thank God, the United States moved quickly, especially since the Germans put themselves in a power-consuming war of destruction with the Soviet Union and focused primarily on rockets and cruise missiles, namely V2 and V1, and did not prioritize the atomic bomb, which the US later dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, thus ending World War II," he added.
Emphasizing that therefore the most important principle of German foreign and security policy should be to prevent a war through military deterrent, Vad said, "This is not because of fear, cowardice or pacifism, but rational danger awareness and a realistic assessment of our geopolitical situation at the center of Europe and at the centre of a future war in Europe."
'German army is in a shabby state'
Despite this, in addition to the reintroduction of compulsory military service, the "war preparation" political major project is on the agenda.
In this regard, Vad said, “In principle, I am not against the armed forces ready for war, because you can save an army that is not ready for war. Let's look at the German army: In a miserable state. This is not just a money problem, and you can't end today to tomorrow with this possible rain of money. You can't make a small plant more beautiful by pouring 100 liters of water on it. It will take years to bring our armed forces back to the level we had in the Cold War. Still, I agree with the demand that we need to do more for our defense, which the US has long rightly demanded," he said.
Klöckner laughed, "Now we hear the retired Brigadier General. I find the term 'ready for war' very problematic. It consists of the positively charged word 'ready' and the negatively charged word 'war'. We see it as a desirable thing to be 'ready' in our society. But to be 'ready' for a war? Shouldn't it be about fulfilling the peace duty ordered by the constitution? We don't need the ball for that, we need more peace sticks, right?” Upon the question, Vad continued:
'We need a new definition of military deterrence in Europe in accordance with the Harmel Doctrine'
“Yes, that's right. I take the basic order of the peace policy from Germany word for word and seriously. Politics should be aimed at peace and reconciliation. Yet, and therefore a strong German army is needed. I think the two are never exclusive to each other. 'Being able to fight not to fight' was a prone during the Cold War. This duty was written on the sign of the Freiherr-von-Boeselager barracks in Munster, where I served for several years as a young officer. We need a new definition of military deterrence in Europe in accordance with the Harmel Doctrine, which is and should continue to be the raison d'etre in NATO history. Not war bias, rejection of political understanding and rhetorical armament frenzy, but military deterrence with strong, operational armed forces in connection with dialogue, balance of interest, understanding and peace policy.”
Vad said, "We must be so strong that no one dares to attack us, and we are not like that right now. We have to work on this, so I find it right," he said.
Klöckner's "So anyway: Is the enemy image Russia?" Vad gave this answer to his question:
“No. With this orientation, I don't need anyone as an enemy, not even Russia. I find it unreasonable to create an enemy image, in a word, I am against it. The point is to be prepared in principle for an attack situation, no matter who it comes from. We must better protect ourselves in Germany and Europe, and this includes military deterrence; but this is only in connection with a policy of dialogue, a balance of interest, building trust, disarmament.”
Klöckner's "Equalibrium of interest? Building trust? Dialogue policy? Not much has been seen against Russia for years, right?” Upon the question, Vad said, "This part is also missing from me. Among the reasons for this is that Russia has launched a war of aggression contrary to international law. In all the discussions over the last three years, Germany again focused on arms deliveries, not negotiations, not dialogue, no political goal was set, these components were neglected. The United States has stopped it now. They are meeting with the Russians, they want a ceasefire with the goal of peace," he said.
Klöckner's "If I remember correctly, you also participated in a peace demonstration, didn't you?" “Two years ago, I attended a demonstration started by Alice Schwarzer and Sahra Wagenknecht in Berlin and gave a speech at the Brandenburg Gate. The women's magazine Emma was the only magazine that printed my speech, except for some small interviews, thanks to Alice Schwarzer's clear, exemplary stance. It seems strange that a former general could express his attitude at the time in a 'women' magazine, and US Vice President J. D. It says something about the diversity of opinion in Germany, which Vance rightly criticized during the Munich Security Conference," he replied.
'I was heavily criticized and slandered as someone who understood Putin and Russia after the peace rally'
“I just last week in a balanced television conversation about the war in Ukraine in Austria - unlike some German talk shows - I said that I would say every sentence of my speech at that time, word by side, again in the same way today. Every statement is true and proven. Only thanks to Emma, this can be verified and read. Still, in a serious newspaper, as a result of my participation in this show, I lost many people who treated me well, my former colleague, and allegedly 'damaged my reputation', it was said. After the demonstration, I was heavily criticized and slandered as someone who understood Putin and Russia," he said.
Klöckner's "How did you come to the show to make this speech back then?" Upon the question, Vad said, "The reason was this: I couldn't publish what I wanted to say anywhere else. Emma let me talk. I am still grateful today that a German women's magazine allowed the former general to speak," she added.
Stating that the German media almost unanimously still does not mention a proxy war in Ukraine, Vad said to Klöckner, “I know an article in a major media, it is referred to here by the name of the child: The war of attorney. Otherwise: It is denied that we are facing a proxy war. How do you see this? Proxy war, yes or no?” Vad answered the question as follows:
“Of course, this is a proxy war. I've been saying this for two years, I've been strongly criticized for it. Not anymore, because it became clear that the US and Russia have already begun to divide the worn-out country [Ukraine, ed.] politically and economically. Keyword: Raw material agreement. Of course, Ukrainians have a legitimate defensive war, it has a history, emerged from a previous internal political conflict, and also has the political character of a proxy war between the US and Russia. No one likes to hear that.”
'Russians have different interests there than Americans'
“First of all, it is a war between the US and Russia because of competition in a given region. The fact is simple: the Russians have different interests there than the Americans. It is important for me to further consider the interests of the states as strategic framework conditions: for the Russians, their influence in the Black Sea region, control over Crimea and losing its land connection to Crimea via Donbass is unthinkable, many ethnic Russians live or have lived here," he said.
“This is similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962,” Vad said. Kennedy could not allow the Soviets to settle militarily in Cuba; a 'not' from an American security perspective. There was a danger of nuclear war. Americans do not allow a non-American power to settle in the Caribbean, Panama or Latin America to this day. I told my American friends about the dilemma of the Russians, explaining that they have to imagine themselves: Mexico wants to become a member of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union, discusses Russian and Chinese military bases with them, and he is constantly conducting military exercises in the Gulf of Mexico, as the Americans did in the Black Sea before the Ukrainian war, and Trump's chat with Canada, Panama or Greenland in geopolitically coloured and highly questionable in terms of international law, clearly reveals what the Ukrainian war is at its core," he said.
Vad said, "Americans have gone too far in Ukraine. This and Ukraine's attempts to force NATO membership were a strategic mistake. It didn't work. Now, as in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya or Iraq, we Europeans are leaving a disaster to pay for," he said.
'Europeans act like adolescent children who are grumpy because they don't get what they want'
Klöckner's "And people in countries too... At this point, I want to ask the question of 'Why'. Why does Europe now want to arm so much? Why does European politics make its rhetoric against Russia so harsh? Why this confrontational approach? The so-called 'climbing domination' ultimately lies in Russia. How do you see that?” Vad said, "This is right. The escalation dominance in the Ukrainian war was in Russia and is still there. Europeans behave like adolescent children who are grumpy because they cannot get what they want in the face of the American-Russian understanding. Adults, Americans and Russians right now and apparently want to get out of the war. But since Europeans cannot wage any war with their current state, I look at the situation a little comfortable," he said.
“International security policy has always been dangerous. Dangers and risks continue at the moment when the USA and Russia are approaching each other," he concluded.