March 22, 2025
Ukraine's (former) President Zelenski is trying to impede further talks between the U.S. and Russia. For this purpose he is avoiding to implement a temporary ceasefire an energy related targets as agreed on between President Trump and President Putin.
Zelenski does not like that deal. He continues to talk of a future ceasefire of all attacks on general infrastructure that may or may not happen in future while his army continues to attack Russian energy installations.
The Russian readout of the 150 minute phone call between the presidents includes this reference to an 'energy ceasefire':
During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.
The U.S. readout is less clear on the issue. It says:
This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.
General infrastructure is a much wider field than energy infrastructure as it involves roads, bridges, public buildings etc. The much shorter U.S. readout is also not at all clear when the energy ceasefire should start even as Russia said that it already had started.
Trump then had a call with President Zelenski. The White House readout from that callsays:
The two leaders also agreed on a partial ceasefire against energy. Technical teams will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss broadening the ceasefire to the Black Sea on the way to a full ceasefire.
This is way more compatible with the Russian view. The temporary ceasefire is about energy infrastructure. It is already ongoing. Further talks are only about expanding it.
This also consistent with the history of previous negotiations and agreements about a moratorium of attacks against energy infrastructure as documented here.
Steven Witkoff, Trump's negotiator in talks with Putin, also confirmed that the temporary ceasefire is about 'energy infrastructure' during an interview with Tucker Carlson (@55min).
Zelenski did not seem to agree with that view when he talked about his phone call with Trump (machine translation):
President Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin and the key issues discussed. One of the first steps towards a complete end to the war may be to stop attacks on energy and other civilian infrastructure. I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it.
Two days later the Ukrainian army destroyed the gas metering station of the Druzba pipeline in the Kursk region near the Ukrainian border. (It of course accused the Russians who have no interest in destructing valuable infrastructure within their country).
The Russian side commented on it (machine translation):
The issue of the Suja GIS attack raised the issue of a moratorium on strikes on the energy sector, which Putin and Zelensky agreed to.Kremlin spokesman Peskov said today that Putin's order on a moratorium on strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector continues to operate. At the same time, according to him, the relevant agreements between Trump and Putin concerned only energy projects, and not the entire infrastructure.
"Despite the actions of Kiev (the Russian Federation accuses Ukraine of strikes on the Russian energy infrastructure - Ed.), the order of the supreme commander-in-chief is valid, and the Russian army currently refrains from attacking the energy infrastructure of Ukraine in accordance with the agreement that was reached between the United States and Russia," the Kremlin spokesman said.
On the eve of Zelensky said that a partial truce, which is currently being discussed, includes a moratorium not only on attacks on energy, but also on other civilian infrastructure. At the same time, as we can see, Moscow says that Putin's agreements with Trump concern only the cessation of strikes on the energy sector.
During an interview of John Mearsheimer Daniel Davis played the relevant clip of Zelenski's daily address to the Ukrainian public in which he talks about a ceasefire on general 'civil' infrastructure, how his people are now putting together lists of such installations, and how this will all have to be discussed in future rounds.
There is no acknowledgement of an existing ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
Russia is currently still sticking to the agreed about temporary ceasefire with regards to energy infrastructure. Zelenski has not acknowledged that such a ceasefire is in place. He is instead talking about a ceasefire on general infrastructure which is a whole different game to play.
If the Ukraine insists on continuing its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure Putin will have to hit back (machine translation):
The Russian Foreign Ministry threatens Ukraine with a "symmetrical response", accusing the Ukrainian Armed Forces of strikes on Russian energy projects.This is reported by the press service of the department.
"It is obvious that with such antics, Kiev once again demonstrates its complete inability to negotiate, as well as its lack of desire to achieve peace. We warn that if the Kiev regime continues its destructive line, the Russian side reserves the right to respond, including a symmetrical one, " the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
If the Trump administration is serious about seeking peace in Ukraine it will have to tell Zelenski that he will have to accept the ceasefire parameters Trump has agreed upon with Putin. (It will also have to use more precise language in its read-outs.)
There is a temporary ceasefire with regards to energy infrastructure in place. Zelenski does his best to ignore and sabotage that deal. If Trump lets him get away with this the trust that has been build up during recent U.S.-Russian talks will be gone. This would seriously impede further negotiations.
If Trump wants peace in Ukraine he has to get serious about this.
Posted by b on March 22, 2025 at 17:09 UTC | Permalink