The Indus in a Climate Crisis: Reassessing Punjab’s Cholistan Canal Project
The proposed Cholistan Canal project in Punjab has ignited a critical debate against the backdrop of an escalating climate crisis, placing Pakistan's lifeline, the Indus River, under unprecedented strain.
The proposed Cholistan Canal project in Punjab has ignited a critical debate against the backdrop of an escalating climate crisis, placing Pakistan’s lifeline, the Indus River, under unprecedented strain. This project, perceived by many as exacerbating existing water distribution inequities, demands a thorough reassessment in light of the river’s deteriorating ecological stability and the looming threat to the livelihoods of millions.
The Indus, once a robust artery of life, now struggles under the combined pressures of excessive water diversion, the intensifying impacts of climate change, and persistent governance challenges. At the core of this struggle lies the Indus Delta, a vital ecological zone rapidly succumbing to diminishing freshwater inflows. Without immediate and strategic policy interventions—including a critical evaluation of projects like the Cholistan Canal—the environmental and socio-economic consequences will be devastating.
Historically, the Indus River discharged approximately 80 million-acre feet (MAF) of water into the Arabian Sea, ensuring a delicate ecological balance that sustained agriculture, fisheries, and local communities. However, decades of infrastructure developments—including barrages, dams, and link canals—have significantly reduced the river’s natural flow. Today, annual outflows to the sea have fallen below 1 MAF in most years, leading to intensified seawater intrusion, accelerated land degradation, and severe biodiversity losses.
One of the most visible impacts of this crisis is the shrinking of the Indus Delta, which once spanned over 600,000 hectares. Coastal communities in areas like Keti Bandar, Kharo Chan, Shah Bandar, and Jati are witnessing increased saltwater intrusion, rendering more than 1.3 million acres of fertile land barren. As freshwater fails to counteract the advancing sea, farmers are abandoning their ancestral lands, triggering climate-induced migration and exacerbating socio-economic instability.
The environmental repercussions extend beyond agriculture. The Indus Delta was once home to the world’s seventh-largest mangrove forest, a crucial natural barrier against coastal erosion and an essential habitat for marine biodiversity. However, rising salinity and reduced freshwater inflows have severely damaged these forests, escalating coastal erosion and threatening marine life. The collapse of mangrove ecosystems has significantly impacted the fishing industry, deepening economic distress for coastal communities.
The 1991 Water Apportionment Accord was designed to ensure equitable water distribution among Pakistan’s provinces, including a mandated minimum outflow of 10 MAF downstream of the Kotri Barrage to curb seawater intrusion. However, this provision has largely remained unimplemented due to inter-provincial disputes.
As the upper riparian, Punjab has historically utilized a greater share of water resources for irrigation and large-scale projects, often leading to concerns from Sindh over water security. The recently proposed Rs211.3 billion Cholistan Canal project in Punjab has further fueled these tensions, as Sindh perceives such developments as potential threats to its already limited water share.
Climate change is compounding these challenges, making water distribution increasingly unpredictable. Research indicates a westward shift in the Indian monsoon, reducing rainfall in northeastern regions while intensifying precipitation in western areas. This shift has heightened Sindh’s vulnerability to extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts and catastrophic floods. The devastating floods of 2010, 2011, 2020, and 2022 underscore the urgent need for improved water storage and drainage infrastructure. The 2022 monsoon alone brought rainfall anomalies exceeding 460% in Sindh, displacing thousands and submerging vast agricultural lands, highlighting the necessity of climate-resilient water management strategies.
Given the growing water crisis, Pakistan must adopt a balanced and forward-thinking strategy that ensures both sustainable development and ecological conservation. Key policy measures should include revisiting the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord to reflect current hydrological realities and climate challenges. The government must ensure a minimum outflow of at least 10 MAF, with gradual increases to align with environmental sustainability goals.
Instead of relying solely on large dams, Pakistan should prioritize decentralized water storage solutions, such as check dams and underground reservoirs, to improve water retention and minimize wastage. Additionally, a robust mangrove rehabilitation program, led by community-driven replanting efforts, is essential for restoring coastal ecosystems. This initiative will not only help prevent erosion but also sustain fisheries, which play a crucial role in local economies.
The Government of Sindh has already taken steps in this direction, with notable progress. Moreover, enhancing drainage infrastructure, clearing irrigation canal blockages, and implementing innovative flood management strategies will be vital for improving water distribution.
At the agricultural level, farmers should be encouraged to adopt modern irrigation techniques, such as drip irrigation and laser land leveling, to enhance water efficiency and minimize wastage.
Pakistan can draw valuable lessons from successful global water management models, such as the Delaware River Basin in the U.S., where controlled reservoir releases have effectively mitigated saltwater intrusion. Implementing real-time monitoring of seawater intrusion and integrating climate change projections into water management strategies could help determine optimal downstream flows at Kotri Barrage in real time. This approach would support sustainable water distribution and ecosystem preservation under the oversight of IRSA.
The Indus River and its delta, already teetering on the edge of ecological collapse due to climate-induced changes and unsustainable water management, now face an added layer of complexity with the Cholistan Canal project. If decisive action, including a reevaluation of this project, is not taken, further degradation of this vital ecosystem will lead to irreversible environmental damage and exacerbate socio-economic disparities. The federal government must urgently reassess its water policies, ensure equitable resource distribution, and implement climate-adaptive solutions, including a critical review of the Cholistan Canal’s impact. By prioritizing a science-based, collaborative approach that considers the full spectrum of climate-related challenges and project-specific impacts, Pakistan can safeguard its water resources, preserve the Indus Delta, and secure a resilient future for its people.
Prof Abdul Waheed Bhutto is a distinguished academic, accomplished researcher, and visionary administrator with over two decades of experience. He serves as a Professor and Pro-Vice-Chancellor at Dawood University of Engineering and Technology (DUET), Karachi. His work focuses on climate change, renewable energy, and sustainable development, with numerous high-impact publications. He is widely recognized for his expertise and commitment to education and sustainability. His insights on these topics are frequently featured in international current affairs forums.