Social and Economic Effects of Expanded Deportation Measures
Table of Contents
- Immigration and the Growing Political Divide
- Executive Orders on Immigration
- Local and Federal Roles in Deportation Efforts
- Impact on US Families and Communities
- Impact on the US Workforce and Economy
- Financial Cost of Large-Scale Deportations
- Impact on Mexico and US-Mexico Relations
- Broader Impact of Deportation Policies
Author(s)
Tony Payan
Françoise and Edward Djerejian Fellow for Mexico Studies | Director, Center for the U.S. and MexicoImmigration and the Growing Political Divide
Irregular migration at the U.S.-Mexico border has emerged as a defining political issue in the 21st century. One challenge has been the U.S. government’s ongoing struggle to manage surges in border arrivals. Streamlining asylum processing — deporting those who do not qualify and resettling those who do — could help reduce political tensions. Migration patterns also fluctuate for reasons beyond U.S. control. Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border reached record highs in 2023 before dropping sharply in 2024, a trend seen repeatedly over the past 15 years.
An increasing number of Americans view immigration as a long-term issue that requires stronger measures. Diverging views on immigration have contributed to deep divisions within the American electorate, with candidates advocating for stricter policies gaining support. President Donald Trump, for example, has linked irregular migration with risks to national security, public safety, and the economy. In both of his presidential campaigns, he pledged swift action on immigration, with mass deportation of undocumented migrants being a cornerstone of his second term program.
This brief explores the impacts of Trump’s immigration policy, with particular attention to the economic and social costs of large-scale deportations.
Executive Orders on Immigration
President Trump has actively worked to fulfill his campaign promises. Starting on his first day in office in 2025, he issued a series of executive orders, including 10 focused on the U.S. immigration system. They have created anxiety within immigrant communities and raised concerns among U.S. employers in industries that rely on migrant labor, including construction, agriculture, food processing, farming and ranching, hospitality, cleaning services, landscaping, and manufacturing.
These orders include, among other things:
- Enhanced deportation powers.
- Changed treatment of asylum seekers.
- Increased military role at the U.S.-Mexico border.
- Reinstatement of remain in Mexico policy.
- Curtailment of humanitarian parole programs.
- Suspension of refugee admission.
Deportation — The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency will be granted increased enforcement capacity across all areas to expedite the deportation of undocumented migrants.
Asylum Seekers — U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has announced the immediate suspension of the CBP One app, which allowed immigrants to submit information and schedule interviews with immigration authorities before arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border. In addition, one order prohibits individuals without legal status from seeking protection at the U.S.-Mexico border, while another seeks to expedite the transfer of asylum seekers to third countries, either temporarily or indefinitely.
Military Role — The U.S. military has been tasked with supporting CBP and the Border Patrol in securing the U.S.-Mexico border and deterring asylum seekers. This directive requires the Department of Defense to redirect military funds for border enforcement, including setting up detention facilities and resuming border wall construction. As a result, an additional 1,500 active duty troops were deployed along the southern border during Trump’s first week in office, joining 2,200 active duty troops and National Guard members already stationed there.
Remain in Mexico — The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the U.S. Department of State (DOS) reinstated the Migrant Protection Protocols (also known as the “remain in Mexico” policy), which require asylum seekers at the southern border to wait in Mexico for their hearings in a U.S. immigration court.
Humanitarian Parole — DHS ended the CHNV (Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans) humanitarian parole program and reduced the availability of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for certain countries. Previously, the CHNV program allowed up to 30,000 immigrants per month from these countries to enter and remain in the U.S. for up to two years. Now, these individuals are prioritized for deportation proceedings.
Refugees — Another executive order suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program. The order blurs the distinction between asylum seekers, other migration flows, and refugee resettlement, making the distinction irrelevant. The Secretaries of State and Homeland Security may jointly make exceptions and admit refugees on a case-by-case basis, but only if they determine there is no threat to the security of the U.S.
Local and Federal Roles in Deportation Efforts
These executive orders align with a stated goal of the Trump administration — to deport all undocumented immigrants from the U.S. The president directed the attorney general and the secretary of homeland security to establish Homeland Security Task Forces in all states to manage deportation operations. This policy is being implemented through a multifaceted approach, which includes incentives and penalties.
In addition to expanding detention facilities, the plan involves recruiting state and local law authorities for deportation operations and deputizing them under the 287(g) program, which offers financial incentives to local law enforcement agencies to engage in immigration enforcement. For jurisdictions that do not cooperate, penalties may include:
- Reductions in federal funding, particularly targeting communities with large numbers of undocumented immigrants.
- Investigations by prosecutors of local and state officials who resist immigration enforcement efforts.
A 2011 ICE policy memorandum designated certain areas, such as churches and schools, as sensitive locations where immigration enforcement actions were restricted. However, these protections have since been rolled back, allowing ICE to arrest undocumented immigrants from these locations. It remains to be seen how this policy will be applied in major sanctuary cities.
The Trump administration has stated that it will prioritize deporting immigrants with criminal records before expanding efforts to the broader undocumented population. As the administration now considers undocumented presence a criminal offense, it is effectively categorizing all undocumented migrants as criminals.
Impact on US Families and Communities
Examining key statistics helps assess the impact of mass deportations:
- The estimated number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. was around 11 million in 2022.
- Undocumented immigrants make up 3.3% of the total U.S. population and 23% of the foreign-born population.
- Over 40% live in states with sanctuary laws that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
- The majority come from Mexico, Central America, Asia, and South America.
- Undocumented immigrants reside in 6.3 million households, and approximately 4.4 million U.S.-born children live with an undocumented parent.
- Deporting these individuals could result in an average income loss of 62.7 %, or $51,200 per year in mixed-status households, with ripple effects across many sectors of the U.S. economy.
Mental Health Effects
In addition to the economic and social costs, mass deportation policies also heighten fear and uncertainty within migrant communities. Research from Trump’s first term indicates that increased detention and deportation negatively impacted immigrant the mental and physical well-being of immigrant families. Fear led some individuals — including those with U.S.-born family members or with legal status — to avoid using government programs and health services for which they were eligible. This outcome is likely to be repeated in Trump’s second term.
Family separation due to deportation has negative psychological effects, particularly on children, who may experience emotional and behavioral challenges such as changes in eating and sleeping patterns, anxiety, sadness, anger, and withdrawal. Immigrant raids and deportations also increase fear and distrust of public institutions, making immigrants less likely to engage in activities at churches, schools, and community organizations.
Impact on the US Workforce and Economy
Immigrants, both documented and undocumented, play a vital role in the U.S. economy as workers, consumers, and taxpayers, yet Trump’s policies often overlook this contribution. Their participation in the U.S. labor market increased from 14.8% in 2005 to 18.6% in 2023, with notable representation in certain industries. In states like California and Texas, immigrants make up 40% of the construction workforce. Nationwide data for three key sectors reveals large numbers of foreign-born workers:
- In agriculture, approximately 41% of workers are undocumented, while 23% hold H-2A visas.
- In the food supply chain, an estimated 1.7 million workers are undocumented immigrants.
- In construction and extraction, around 34% of the workforce was born outside the U.S.
The U.S. economy has experienced a labor shortage in recent years. In 2023, approximately 3.2 million jobs remained unfilled, including positions in vital sectors such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, health care, and manufacturing. These shortages are primarily attributed to an aging workforce and declining national fertility rates. Immigrants have already played a significant role in addressing these labor shortages, bolstering the U.S. economy, but additional workers are still needed. Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to shrink after 2033 and with it, its workforce — generating greater labor shortages.
Over 8 million undocumented immigrants currently work in the U.S., contributing to the economy in key industries. Mass deportations could worsen labor shortages, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 1.5 million in construction, 225,000 in agriculture, 1 million in hospitality, 870,000 in manufacturing, and 461,000 in transportation and warehousing. This would likely lead to higher costs, increased inflation, and slower economic growth, with states like California, Texas, and Florida facing the greatest impact.
Economy — Estimates suggest that mass deportations could reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.6% to 6.2% over the next decade. In Texas, deporting undocumented immigrants could shrink the state’s economy by 10%, using Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 as a baseline. It is also estimated that such deportations could increase prices by 9.1% by 2028.
Revenue — Large-scale deportations would affect federal, state, and local government tax revenues. Notably, over their lifetime, immigrants contribute $237,000 more in taxes than they receive in government benefits.
Effect on U.S.-Born Workers — Previous mass deportations have not led to increased wages or job opportunities for U.S.-born workers. Instead, they have lowered wages and contributed to job losses — removing 500,000 immigrants from the labor market could result in 44,000 fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers.
As a result, wages would experience downward pressure, tax revenues would decline, and U.S. resources would shift from economic growth to covering the costs of detention and deportation.
Financial Cost of Large-Scale Deportations
Mass deportations are costly and require additional personnel for implementation. Several limits on capacity may come into play:
- ICE employs approximately 5,500 agents for immigration enforcement but has struggled with a shortage of applicants in recent years, making it difficult to fill vacancies. Recruitment and training typically take 18–24 months.
- While the number of detention facility beds increased to 41,500 beds for FY 2024, this is insufficient to handle the proposed mass deportations.
- Flight capacity is another limitation, as ICE operates only a dozen planes, each capable of transporting about 135 deportees at a time.
Cost projections are in the billions of dollars:
- The estimated cost of deporting 1 million immigrants annually is around $88 billion.
- The total cost of a one-time mass deportation operation would be at least $315 billion.
- Congressional Republicans have estimated funding Trump’s border and deportation policies would cost around $100 billion.
- The administration has requested $175 billion from Congress over the next four years to expand detention space and increase ICE staffing.
Recent figures provide context for the proposed mass deportations:
- In FY 2024, ICE deported 271,484 immigrants, a 90.4% increase over FY 2023. Of these deportations, 32.7% involved individuals with criminal records.
- In the first month of Trump’s second term, approximately 25,000 immigrants were apprehended. If this rate continued and all could be deported, the annual deportation total would reach 300,000.
Based on these figures, the goal of deporting 1 million undocumented immigrants per year seems unattainable.
Even with increased funding for detention centers and immigration officers, the cost to the U.S. economy would be substantial. Key sectors like agriculture and construction would be severely impacted, leading to broader disruptions that could harm the entire U.S. economy.
Impact on Mexico and US-Mexico Relations
In FY 2024, Mexicans accounted for 32% of all deportations from the U.S., the highest of percentage of any nationality. Given similar trends in recent years, Mexico is expected to remain the top destination for deportations this year. Since many undocumented Mexican immigrants come from economically disadvantaged states, a large-scale return could place considerable financial pressure on those regions.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has proposed a series of social and economic measures to support returning immigrants. The “Mexico Embraces You” program will provide access to all government social programs, health care through the Mexican Social Security Institute, and 2,000 pesos ($100) for transportation to their places of origin.
The Sheinbaum administration plans to offer consular support and legal advice to Mexicans at risk of deportation. However, recent budget cuts to Mexican consulates make it unlikely that they will be able to provide significant assistance. Mexico has also accepted some non-Mexican deportees from the Trump administration. However, Mexican immigration agencies, facing their own budget cuts, lack the resources to manage deportations effectively. Given Mexico’s goal of reducing its fiscal deficit in 2025, expanding immigration work may not be feasible this year.
Remittances
Most undocumented immigrants send remittances to their families in Mexico, which have been a critical driver of Mexico’s economy in recent years. For example, in 2024, remittances reached $65 billion, accounting for approximately 3.3% of the national GDP. Large-scale deportations are likely to reduce these remittances, negatively impacting the Mexican economy.
Tariffs
Trump’s approach to reducing undocumented migration across the U.S.-Mexico border and addressing the flow of fentanyl involves imposing 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico. Although they may be primarily intended to motivate Mexico to take border enforcement action, such tariffs could disrupt trade between the two countries and, along with large-scale deportations, may slow Mexico’s economic growth or even contribute to a recession. This economic downturn could impact personal incomes in Mexico, driving more people to migrate in search of work. Despite the challenges of entering the U.S., it remains the primary destination for many Mexicans seeking better opportunities.
Broader Impact of Deportation Policies
Mass deportations would have a negative impact on families, communities and the economy nationwide. Family separations would cause distress, impacting mental health and reducing household income. Economically, deportations would worsen labor shortages in key industries, lowering productivity and driving up inflation. Mass deportations are costly and would strain U.S. public finances, potentially requiring the Trump administration to cut other programs or secure additional funding. Ultimately, these actions could weaken the U.S. economy and reduce the well-being of its communities.
A Balanced Approach to Immigration and Labor
Instead of focusing primarily on mass deportations, the Trump administration could adopt a three-pronged approach to address immigration and labor shortages more effectively. First, reallocating resources to expedite processing and issuance of nonimmigrant work visas would help fill labor gaps. Second, implementing immigration reform that creates a clear visa pathway for long-term, law-abiding undocumented immigrants would recognize their contributions to the U.S. economy. Finally, expanding temporary work visa programs and adjusting caps based on labor market demands, particularly in sectors like construction, could promote orderly migration and support economic stability.
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