Vietnam to Trump: 'Just Don't Do It' on tariffs
With the final set to grip millions of basketball fans in the US and beyond, demand for athletic shoes and gear is reportedly skyrocketing.
The March Madness tournament isn’t just a showcase of college basketball talent; it’s also a massive marketing opportunity for sportswear giants like and , whose products dominate the hardwood courts.
But while these brands enjoy heightened visibility amid the spectacle, their supply chains face a looming crisis. President Donald Trump’s 46% tariff hike aims to hurt Vietnam, the key manufacturing hub for these brands.
As the primary producer of high-performance basketball shoes and apparel, Vietnam’s booming footwear industry now faces an existential threat that could disrupt the industry and US consumers.
Vietnam has been a major beneficiary of shifting supply chains, particularly as companies moved operations out of China to avoid previous US tariffs. Today, over half of Nike’s footwear production and a significant share of Adidas’ manufacturing take place in Vietnam.
Trump’s aggressive tariff policy promises to drastically increase costs for these iconic sportswear companies, forcing them to either pass price hikes onto consumers or look for alternative production sites—both of which would create significant disruptions.
Higher tariffs could also stifle investment in Vietnam’s factories and ultimately crimp demand, potentially causing layoffs and reducing economic growth in a nation that has become one of the US’s key economic partners in recent years.
With sportswear brands deeply embedded in Vietnam’s economy, the tariffs risk undermining a vital segment of the global supply chain at a time when demand is surging.
Moreover, Trump’s punitive tariff threatens to strain ties between the two nations at a critical moment, just as they mark 50 years since the fall of Saigon on April 30.
Now as strategic comprehensive partners, the US and Vietnam have built a relationship centered on economic cooperation, regional stability and shared security interests in the Indo-Pacific, including vis-à-vis China in the South China Sea.
Trump’s exceptionally steep tariff risks disrupting supply chains, weakening trust and pushing Vietnam to seek alternative economic alliances, potentially undermining US influence in the region at a time when geopolitical stability is paramount.
The White House’s draconian position is based on the US’s US$123.5 billion trade deficit with Vietnam, making it the third largest worldwide behind only China and Mexico, according to Morningstar analyst David Swartz.
In response, Vietnamese officials have attempted to negotiate a deal before the onerous tariff levy comes into force on April 9.
According to an April 5 letter from Vietnamese Communist Party chief To Lam addressed to Trump, Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US imports and requested that the US not apply any additional tariffs or fees on Vietnamese goods, Bloomberg reported.
He also requested a 45-day reprieve on the tariffs’ implementation. Hanoi’s offered diplomatic concessions and pledges also include supporting the repatriation of Vietnamese nationals detained in the US.
In the end, the 46% tariffs targeting Vietnam will primarily be paid by multinational companies that employ hundreds of thousands of workers in the country. However, these costs will in some percentage be passed down the supply chain, ultimately hitting American consumers.
For instance, the price of a pair of Nike shoes, like the Nike Air Force 1, which are largely manufactured in Vietnam, is expected to rise from an average cost of $115 to over $150 once the new Vietnam-specific tariffs come into force.
Most economists agree that tariffs function as a tax on businesses, but in practice, companies typically offset these costs by raising prices, reducing profit margins or shifting production elsewhere.
In the case of Vietnam, the tariff impact will extend well beyond multinational corporations—it will also affect the country’s workforce, which relies on foreign-invested manufacturing jobs to sustain livelihoods.
For instance, Nike employs over 130,000 Vietnamese workers in 75 contracted factories manufacturing Nike-branded products across the country. In its 2024 financial year report, Nike said it produced 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam.
Nike’s extensive manufacturing presence in Vietnam has created significant employment opportunities, particularly for women, who make up approximately 80% of the workforce in its factories.
Many of these women come from poor rural areas in the central and northern provinces, seeking better wages and financial stability. Their Nike-linked jobs have helped lift many families out of poverty and into the global economy.
Indeed, for many of these workers, employment in Nike’s factories represents their first experience in the formal economy, granting them access to steady incomes, legal protections and opportunities for skills development that can translate into broader career opportunities.
Beyond financial benefits, Nike’s employment of women in Vietnam has also played a role in fostering gender equality and economic empowerment. Many of these women become role models within their communities, inspiring younger generations to pursue work and education.
At the same time, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs mean US consumers will face higher prices for various everyday goods, particularly in industries heavily dependent on Vietnamese exports, such as footwear, electronics and textiles.
Frank Lavin, former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade, has publicly criticized Trump’s “scattershot” tariffs strategy for causing contradictory outcomes, hurting the US economy while increasing volatility.
As the US becomes a less reliable trading partner, he sees other nations and businesses seeking opportunities elsewhere.
Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners such as Vietnam occur at a time when the global economy was—and will continue to be—highly interconnected.
In an era defined by globalization, such protectionist measures not only disrupt complex supply chains but also strain diplomatic, economic and possibly security relations.
Trump’s move marks a broader shift toward a more fragmented and recalibrated global order, a “rewired” world where cooperative frameworks are increasingly undermined. That new world will have adverse consequences for a wide range of stakeholders across both developed and developing economies.
As basketball fans celebrate the NCAA finals, they’ll likely see higher prices and more limited athletic apparel options days after a new champion is crowned.
What seems like economic “liberation” to Trump could well ultimately backfire—hurting US consumers and upending hard-earned relations with a loyal trade partner in Vietnam.
James Borton is a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins/SAIS Foreign Policy Institute and the author of Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground.