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ONE HUNDRED DAYS OF CHAOS
Like the rest of his presidency, Trump's foreign policy has been a matter of his whims
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President Donald Trump has been in office for ninety-five days, and he has turned Washington and America itself inside out: tariffs, mass arrests and illegal deportations, mass firings of federal employees, a cabinet of sycophants, cowering Republican majorities in the Senate and the House.
But there seemed to be, if not a plan, at least a clear presidential voice on foreign policy. Trump was a self-declared friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and together they would settle the Ukraine War. There were communications between Trump and Putin and talk about possible Trump resorts in Russian-occupied Crimea and Donbass. There was discussion of American investments in Russia’s oil and gas fields and rare earth mines. Despite their hatred of Putin and fear of Russia, the European members of NATO would have no choice but to come along.
A negotiating team was assembled, led by Vice President JD Vance and Army General Keith Kellogg, to head the talks with the Russians. It has not worked out. Putin apparently was not interested in dealing with the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, although he has continued to meet with various emissaries from Washington.
Has the chance for peace fallen apart? Not completely, but the prospect of a quick settlement is gone, in the view of an involved American official. Nonetheless, I was told that the immediate situation is bleak. Bolstered by support from anti-Putin European leaders, Zelensky “now says there is a resurgence in his local popularity and support.”
In fact, as the official had earlier told me, the American negotiators have long been following the recommendation of a few senior officers in the Russian Army that the focus should be on a ceasefire “and do not let Putin turn the talks into details of a ‘final’ settlement which will be endless. Stop the killing now.”
There were some members of the US negotiating team who thought that Trump would not keep up an endless commitment to negotiate a settlement, if one did not come easily. “At some point,” I was told, “he will turn it over to the UN and offer help in enforcing whatever they can work out.”
Trump was also all-in with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it was thought Trump would support Israel all the way in its ongoing war with Hamas. There was little sympathy among the Israeli leadership for the two million Gazans who were murderously caught in the middle. They were collateral damage. Trump said that Gaza, with its long stretch of sandy beach along the Mediterranean coast, would in the future be the playground of the Middle East.
Any vague notion of Trump being a rational figure in international diplomacy was blown apart yesterday afternoon after Zelensky publicly rejected the latest American peace offer, which included no possibility of NATO membership for Ukraine and US recognition of Crimea, which was transferred to Ukrainian control in 1954, as a permanent Russian territory. Zelensky said his country would never “legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. . . . It is against our constitution.” (I was told later that US recognition of Russia possessing Crimea was not in the US proposal, but was merely a passing comment by a Russian.)
Trump’s response came hours later. He accused Zelensky of doing “nothing but prolonging the ‘killing field’ and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally GET IT DONE.”
After Russian airstrikes on Kyiv killed nine people and injured dozens, Trump returned to the theme this morning on Truth Social, his social media platform: “I’m not happy with the Russian strike on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!”
Until that public blast, the official said, there had been no sign from Trump that Zelensky’s ability to garner support and promises of military aid from European leaders, along with favorable press coverage, was a reason. But the official told me that he had predicted that Zelensky’s glowing European press coverage would eventually lead to trouble. “A fairytale gone bad,” he said. “Prince Charming’s slipper didn’t fit the evil step-sister.”
The New York Times earlier reported from Berlin that the Kremlin was preparing to respond to what was said to be a new push from Trump for another round of talks. On his Truth Social platform Trump had said that he hoped Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” adding that the United States stood to “make a fortune” as a result.
As the wiseguys say, money talks and bullshit walks.
Meanwhile in Israel, Netanyahu remains an object of intense international scorn for Israel’s renewed bombing of Gaza, where battered and increasingly ignored Palestinians have been without international aid since March 2. But what is on Bibi’s mind is not Gaza or the fate of its citizens, or the fate of the twenty-four hostages still believed to be alive and under the guard of Hamas. He has been complaining bitterly about the collapse of his relationship with Trump.
Trump recently decided to renew talks on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, which includes no weapons nor any evidence of its capacity to fabricate a nuclear warhead. But Iran does maintain a 600-pound stockpile of uranium that has been enriched to 60 percent purity, far less than the 90 percent purity needed for a nuclear weapon. Iran is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which means its nuclear activities are under camera watch of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Two rounds of high-level talks between American and Iranian officials have taken place in Oman, and a third round begins there on Saturday. It was Trump who decided in 2018 to walk away from the agreement the Obama administration made with Iran. Tehran had agreed to severely limit its nascent nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.
Netanyahu is fighting for his political life and to avoid a jail term if he is found guilty of long-standing corruption charges that are now being adjudicated. As prime minister, Netanyahu could not be jailed, even if found guilty. He has told associates that he is mystified by Trump. He has been able to be direct and often challenging to other US presidents, especially Joe Biden, but he does not dare say no to Trump. His fear is that if he does so, he has told colleagues, “Trump would lower the boom on Israel.” In past years he was able to come to Washington and give a talk to a joint session of Congress in which he took on an American President with no fear of retribution.
The point, I was told, is that Netanyahu is “seething” in anger at Trump’s unilateral decision to seek a nuclear agreement with Tehran without discussing the issue with the Israeli leadership. The feeling among others in the leadership is that the beleaguered Israeli prime minister is little more than “a hostage” to Trump, Israel is also troubled, I was told, by Trump’s decision to repay the Saudi leadership for its willingness to host international meetings on Ukraine, and its willingness to advise on the future of Gaza and the continuing Israeli effort to find and kill the remnants of Hamas. In return, I was told, the Saudi government will be allowed to purchase at least two US-made nuclear reactors. Many in the White House, including members of Trump’s family, sought something similar early in Trump’s first term but they were overcome by criticism throughout the national security community.
Is there any office today in the Congress or government capable of resisting the president’s whims?