[Salon] "More 'Talks' Games as Russian Machine Barrels Forward

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51225-more-talks-games-as?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=163170670&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=210kv&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

SITREP 5/12/25: More 'Talks' Games as Russian Machine Barrels Forward

Simplicius  5/12/25

Again the smokescreen of peace talks tries desperately to overshadow mounting Russian advances. I find it nearly pointless to split hairs over the incessant back and forth ‘negotiations’ charade because it’s all simple posturing from both sides, with each vying to outdo the other in the media in order to present the best face of ‘peace maker’ to their own respective allies.

In the case of Russia, Putin clears allies like China from having to answer any tough questions like “Why do you continue supporting an obvious warmonger nation?” It gives a kind of plausible deniability, allowing Russia to say it’s doing everything it can for peace. In reality, Russia has not changed its demands in the slightest and they are not even close to being met by Ukraine and its Western handlers.

In fact, for the first time MSM seems to have at least acknowledged this recently:

https://archive.ph/jEtP9

Well, there you have it.

Vance answered by saying Russia is asking for “too much”:

But listen to how he said it—he admits that Russia is in the driver’s seat, advancing and capturing territory and stops just short of conceding that US is only negotiating to prevent Ukraine’s total collapse:

US Vice President Vance said that Russia cannot count on those territories of Ukraine that it has not yet conquered, writes the publication “Strana”.

"Question: Yesterday you spoke at the Munich Security Conference here in Washington. You said that Russia is essentially asking for too much in the deal to resolve the war with Ukraine. What should we do now? Get away from this situation or, on the contrary, increase military support for Ukraine?

"We'll see how it all plays out, of course. But look, we knew that Russia would ask too much, because from the Russian point of view, what's happening on the ground is their victory. And of course, the Ukrainians would like a ceasefire, partly because the last few months have not been good for them.

Our position is that we don't want Ukraine to collapse. We obviously want Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. But Russia cannot expect to be given back territories that it hasn't even seized. And that was what their original peace plan was.

I actually think it's progress that the Russians and Ukrainians have started talking at all. It's also progress that there are concrete peace proposals on the table. We knew from the start that the first Russian proposal would be excessive.

We knew they would ask for more than was reasonable to give. That often happens in negotiations. It doesn't bother me.

I would be concerned if we came to the conclusion that Russia was negotiating in bad faith. And if that happens, yes, we will step aside. The President will say: we are leaving this process.

Everyone seems to understand—as Trump himself hinted—that Russia remains in the driver’s seat yet for some reason they still expect Russia to make a massive concession by simply agreeing to stop advancing for virtually no reward: Ukraine would still get military aid, be allowed to keep its Nazi ideology, etc. This is simply asinine.

Now European leaders think they’ve somehow got Russia ‘cornered’ by forcing Putin into an ultimatum. But does this look like a picture of winning confidence to you?

Pawel Wargan writes:

The contrast between these images is stark. The West looks increasingly isolated, weak, and desperate. In its renewed belligerence, lingering colonial attitudes, and blatant attempts to rewrite history, it is locking itself out of the multipolar world that is in formation.

By contrast, Victory Day in Moscow gave us a glimpse at the contours of that multipolar world — one that is open, inclusive, and committed, at the very least, to dialogue. Bringing together the leaders of the anti-imperialist bloc, from China to Cuba, Venezuela to Burkina Faso, it carried faint echoes of the Third World internationalism that shaped the 20th century.

In these images, we can see the ideological edifice of imperialism crumble— white supremacy, the organising logic of an international system dominated by imperial and colonial powers, has been rejected.

Funnily enough, for the first time I heard a very pivotal change in the phrase widely used to denounce Russia. One of the top European puppet compradors called Russia “isolated in Europe”. It’s a subtle shift, but all the more telling—even they can no longer deride Russia as truly isolated, but rather isolated in Europe, an increasingly irrelevant open air museum, good only for passing tourism.

Russia ‘exudes confidence’ after a stellar Victory Day, with China showing full backing for the SMO; Xi even wore the St. George ribbon in solidarity:

But getting back to the topic of advances, as I said the ‘negotiations’ smokescreen is meant merely to give cover to the West’s desperate assertion that the conflict has ‘stagnated’ or become ‘frozen’, and that negotiations is the only way out. Nothing of the sort—Russian advances are again picking up, with multiple captures over the past few days happening under the cover of the ‘peace talks’ red herring.

This time let’s start with the less significant. Suriyak summarizes the past two weeks where Russian forces have taken a number of new positions along the old Zaporozhye line:

On the Kharkov-Lugansk front, Russian forces are expanding outward from Nove, having entered nearby Ridkodub:

Just a few clicks south of there Russian forces entered Kolodyazi:

The most powerful advances however came in the Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka directions.

Last time we left off, Russian forces had just reached the outskirts of Bagatyr, now they are almost halfway through the town:

For perspective with Pokrovsk visible in the north:

Several top Ukrainian military channels are nearly in panic:

"Bogatyr is in deep shit. The russiies advanced to the city center very quickly and captured the buildings. There are ongoing street battles."

"Some of the new guys pissed their pants and ran away last night, which is why the defense line was shaken."

"The worst part is that there is a lot of empty space there and there's nowhere to even hide. Almost all the houses are already fucked up as it is. Good luck to those who managed to dig in."

"In the videos the captured russkie soldiers always say the same thing: “we're fucked, we got nothing,” etc., etc. If everything is so fucked up for them, why the hell are they pushing forward on all fronts??"

Just north of Bagatyr on the west Pokrovsk front Russian troops made another big breakthrough as well:

Russian Army made significant advances with the complete capture of Novooleksandrivka reaching the outskirts of Novomykolaivka & Solona river (Less than 1 Km from from Dnipropetrovsk oblast) as well as several positions south of it. In addition, Russian forces made new advances in Horikhove (1,2 Km from from Dnipropetrovsk oblast)

In fact just south of there in Kotlyarovka, seen in the yellow circle above, Russian troops of the 2nd Battalion of the 35th Brigade were seen planting their flag, to capture the settlement:

Further east in the Konstantinovka direction, things are crumbling nearly just as badly for the AFU. There were no major outright captures but along the jagged red line seen below Russian forces improved their positions, capturing territory on the flanks to flatten the frontline in advantageous preparation for upcoming assaults.

Top Ukrainian analyst Maroshnykov admits this direction is deteriorating much faster than even he had anticipated:

Hmm, the Kostyantynivka direction is falling apart faster than I thought...

In fact, the enemy is already approaching the approaches to the city from the southwest.

Yes, that's only on one side.

But in the summer, it will be much more convenient for the occupiers to conduct a general operation here.

Nobody thinks the enemy will stop or make a "deal"?

So it is. They will attack. And attack en masse. And Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk, and Kupyansk, and towards Oskol in the estuary direction. And towards Druzhkivka from Chasovoye Yar.

Only the Armed Forces of Ukraine can stop this.

We are now hostage to Trump's reluctance to provide us with new aid. Therefore, it is necessary for European allies to fill this niche.

So that they discuss new weapons packages for us, and not "blah blah blah" on "agreements" that won't happen. They're just wasting our time.

A Russian report on this direction:

Our most powerful 8th Army is concentrated in the Mirnograd-Konstantinovsky direction. And the enemy command left only two Tro brigades there. The weakest of them is 117th Sumy. Our stormtroopers note from the ground that in most cases they find empty fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine-dozens of dug holes without infantry. The 117th brigade regularly suffered heavy losses, which were replaced by fresh "busied meat", fleeing to the rear at the first opportunity.

Significant are the battles in the area of the road junction near Novaya Poltavka. Battles are taking place north of Alexandropol, battles for Romanovka are being celebrated - our advanced DRGs were seen by the enemy in Yablunovka. The enemy can save the situation only by an emergency transfer of reserves, which may not exist - all the extra forces are storming Tetkino...

He mentions empty foxholes being found in weak spots. Recall the earlier AFU report above from a nearby front that specifically described ‘green’ units leaving the front with big gaps after fleeing their positions.

Here’s a Russian video report from nearby:

Report about the fighting for the area north of Toretsk. The enemy has been preparing defense here since 2022

Retired French Brigadier-General François Chauvancy likewise underlines that Russian forces are advancing everywhere:

The Russians are advancing several square kilometers every day and are confident of their victory. French General Chauvancy on the futility of putting forward an ultimatum to Russia by Zelensky and the "coalition of Euro-idiots"

Lastly, again we have new reports of Russian troop landings along the Dnieper, this time near Nova Kakhovka where large island chains were allegedly captured:

Islands on the Dnieper near Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region have come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, writes Divgen

👉 Something brewing

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One interesting thing to note is the shift in narrative about Russia being the one up against the clock, to the new admission that it’s actually Ukraine ‘running out of time’:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/world/europe/eu-ukraine-weapons.html

The above NYT piece notes that Biden’s last military aid line will run out this summer, and that Europe will take upwards of a decade to get their own production lines up and running:

While European leaders and investors appear willing to pump more money into weapons production, industry executives and experts predict it will take a decade to get assembly lines up to speed.

Who knew?

“Europe is trying to replace the assistance that we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don’t have the capacity to do this,” Mr. Chernev said. “It takes time between the decision and the real assistance.”

Meanwhile, Russian production of key arms components has skyrocketed:

‼️🇷🇺🦾 Russia has sharply increased production of military equipment, — infographics from The Economist

▪️All defense plants show a sharp increase in activity after 2022.

▪️The most noticeable jump was at the Kazan Helicopter Plant: production volumes reached 950 units. The Perm and Kazan Gunpowder Plants also stand out, where the figures rose to 598 and 329, respectively.

A new report points to huge expansion for a new explosives plant which will vastly increase Russia’s ability to produce artillery shells:

Russia is significantly expanding the "Plant named after Ya. M. Sverdlov" for the production of explosives – Reuters. According to the outlet, citing satellite imagery and other documents, the facility is constructing a new production line for the manufacture of RDX or HMX, both of which are used in munitions.

Plans include reconstruction and construction of at least 20 new structures, including additional storage facilities, new tunnels, protective walls, and an expansion of the railway line.

The new facility is expected to be completed in 2025 and will be capable of producing 6,000 tons of explosives per year, enough to load approximately 1.28 million 152mm artillery shells.

According to U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, Russia could reach a production rate of around 250,000 shells per month or 3 million per year, enabling it to build stockpiles three times larger than those of the U.S. and Europe combined.

Ukraine is forced to use its artillery sparingly to such an extent that, according to one Russian frontline observer, they have now resorted to using artillery primarily for fire against enemy assaults—i.e. defensively. In the offensive role, drones take precedence almost exclusively, he says:

If the replenishment instructor was last on the LoC 6 months ago, then this is no longer an instructor - his knowledge is outdated. Working with electronic warfare, frequencies, masking, how art works, what to do in certain situations. Everything changes very quickly.

A year ago, everyone was talking about electronic warfare, and now the entire front is being rolled up in the network. The enemy's artillery used to dismantle our strongholds, but now it sits deep in the rear and opens fire only on the outgoing assault groups. All other work in the depth of our defense up to 30 km is done by FPV and heavy drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Fortifications are now being dismantled exclusively by drone raids.

—

Some last noteworthy items:

Forbes now catches on to Russia’s recent destruction of a HIMARS unit with a cheap FPV drone:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/05/06/a-jam-proof-russian-drone-just-blew-up-a-ukrainian-himars/

I had posted the two separate HIMARS units destroyed last week alone, now another HIMARS unit was reportedly taken out by Iskander strike yesterday.

—

In response to Europe’s new ‘threats’ of massive sanctions as seen by the article above, reporter Ben Aris writes:

I can't take this seriously any more

Macron Warns Russia Faces 'Massive' Europe, US Sanctions If It Breaks 30-day Truce https://www.barrons.com/news/macron-warns-russia-faces-massive-europe-us-sanctions-if-it-breaks-30-day-truce-5924e1da?refsec=topics_afp-news

a total of over 30,000 sanctions have been put on Russia yet it put in 4.3% growth last year and it is EU that has gone into recession.

this is all meaningless #somethingmustbedone rhetoric. sanctions affect EU economy worse than they affect the Russian one.

the only slowdown Russia econ is experiencing at the moment was self-inflicted by Nabi to try and bring inflation down.. will still grow faster than EU this year...

—

Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov also again chimes in on the above. But note his plan for Ukraine’s survival:

Now, a "proposal for a 30-day ceasefire" has spread among the masses, and if it is refused, sanctions will be imposed on the Russian Federation and military assistance to Ukraine will be increased.

Well, the Russian Federation will not refuse outright.

It will be the classic "Yes, but...".

And even if Trump regards this as a refusal (which is very controversial), the swamp scum would have sneezed at the sanctions.

And the "increase in military aid to Ukraine" that Starmer is talking about - well, what is that about? Something that was not voted on by the US Congress?

The United States has ~$4 billion left in Biden aid. Europe will not be able to allocate significantly more.

That is, this is current assistance, not substantial.

The only thing that can force the Russian Federation to enter into any negotiations is a significant strengthening of Ukraine and its troops.

Not a teaspoon for an hour. But significantly. That is, armor, artillery and shells in the amount of x2-x3 of what has already been transferred. Dozens of air defense batteries. Tens (or even hundreds) of billions of dollars of direct military support.

This is the only way out.

Yes, this is not about "I will solve the war in 24 hours/100 days". It's much longer.

But there is no other way to resolve the war.

So, the only way for Ukraine to survive is for the ‘partners’ to increase all weapons and armor shipments by 2 or 3 times, with hundreds of billions of dollars of direct military aid. In other words: Ukraine is screwed.

—

Ukraine’s top military channel ‘DeepState’ has released this scathing analysis of a recent disastrous ‘counterattack’ the AFU launched in the Toretsk direction, wherein columns of their men and gear were burned for no gain at all:

➕ " Counterattack" of the 100th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Toretsk

🇷🇺 On the Internet, you can watch footage of a large assault in Toretsk, where more than two dozen pieces of equipment and a significant number of infantry were involved. Watching the events, you might think of another senseless assault by the Katsaps with a mechanized column across open terrain. But there is one nuance...

⚔️ The other day, fighters of the 100th Motorized Rifle Brigade carried out a "counterattack" in the city of Toretsk, and it was extremely unsuccessful, resulting in many losses for us, and a tactical and media advantage for the enemy in Toretsk, which was already saturated with heavy fighting.

😐 3 years since the full-scale invasion, we have all been watching and mocking the assault actions of Muscovites on open terrain with a column of equipment, which our fighters immediately meet with the defeat of FPV drones and multiply the corresponding attempts by zero. Everyone has repeatedly been able to see the ineffectiveness of such tactics, but we have always been saved by the fact that the katsaps do not want to change here. In particular, a number of fatal mistakes were made:

🛑 the use of a large number of vehicles moving at high speed in a single column in open terrain, which made it possible to arrange a safari for enemy FPV drones. The meaning of such maneuvers has already been described above and is 99% zero;

🛑 lack of normal calculation of the necessary resources of the operation, namely: artillery, which did not have the necessary number of shots to support the maneuvers of equipment and infantry. Lack of the necessary number of drones both for work by dropping and defeating FPV drones. In particular, the work of enemy crews was unpunished, which had a huge impact on the maneuvers of the main forces;

🛑 from the analysis of the movements and further actions of our forces - the lack of specifically planned steps in case of unforeseen circumstances (roughly speaking, plan B), which led to a chaotic situation and the inability to assess the situation around. Such maneuvers are prepared in advance, thought out to the smallest detail, where each fighter and each unit knows their movement at the appropriate moment with the ability to assess any changes in the course of the operation, this could be seen in the actions of the 3rd OSH Brigade, Azov, recent counterattacks of the "Charter", etc.

❗️ In conclusion, I would like to note only one thing - conclusions must be drawn. The network is trying to present these events as "successful", but in the information age, you can't hide this with headlines, and you can't bring back the fallen soldiers who gave their lives for this nonsense. Tomorrow, the soldiers who saw and survived this will have to go into battle again, but the question is - with what motivation? The military is the most valuable thing we have and their lives must be preserved at all costs. And this is not "playing into the enemy's hands", because those who implemented this have already played into it, and the best way not to repeat it is to finally draw conclusions. Lies will destroy us all...

Footage from the Russian side of the attack being repelled:

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Notorious Russian ‘General Armageddon’ Surovikin was spotted after a physical transformation in his new Algerian post, sparking tongue-in-cheek comparisons of ‘Russian army 2022 vs. 2025’:

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Lastly, the May 9th Victory Day parade saw the dawning of an unprecedented partnership between Russia and North Korea, much less China.

The delegation of North Korean General Staff deputies gave Putin the longest address after the proceedings, and even a warm hug:

- Colonel General Kim Yong Bok, Deputy Chief of the General Staff;

- Colonel General Ri Chang H, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the KPA

- Chief of the General Intelligence Bureau;

- Major General Sin Kum Chol, Chief of the General Operations Directorate of the KPA.

And others.

And now Kim himself has issued an unprecedented vow to defend Russian land by immediately dispatching North Korean troops in the event of any future attack like the Kursk one:

https://www.newsweek.com/kim-jong-un-north-korea-weapons-us-tacky-2070510

His official declaration:

"If the henchmen of the United States and the West, with their tacky, defective munitions, attempt another assault on Russia, I will unhesitatingly issue an order on using the armed forces of the DPRK in repelling the enemy's invasion."

Now that’s a true ally.