[Salon] Gaza, Syria, Iran: Israel Leaves Itself Out in the Cold as Trump Redefines the Middle East

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-15/ty-article/.premium/as-trump-builds-a-new-mideast-axis-israel-and-palestinians-are-reduced-to-mere-extras/00000196-d320-de9d-adf6-dbefca830000

Gaza, Syria, Iran: Israel Leaves Itself Out in the Cold as Trump Redefines the Middle East - Israel News - Haaretz.com

Zvi Bar'elMay 15, 2025

The thirty-three minutes President Trump spent with Syria's Ahmad al-Sharaa and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan joining via video, depicted the outline of the new axis taking shape under the American president's aegis.

This is an axis in which Saudi Arabia is the leading state and Turkey a strategic ally, while Iran has been presented with an offer to join the club. However, in the meantime, Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general, are, for now, barely present, no more than extras.

In contrast to his previous visit to the region, which included a stop in Israel, Trump arrives this time with a more realistic and sober-headed road map. His call to Syria's president to join the Abraham Accords, as well as his ambition to achieve a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, are no longer accompanied by a steamroller of threats and pressure or by gifts and enticements such as those presented six years ago as an inducement to help fulfill his dream of a new Middle East.

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He "allowed" Bin Salman to decide when would be the most suitable time for him to sign a normalization agreement, and he did not predicate the lifting of sanctions on Syria on that country's joining the accords.

There could be no clearer indication of the fact that to Trump's understanding, the main obstacle facing the expansion of the circle of countries joining the accords lies in Jerusalem, in the hands of Benjamin Netanyahu, who, like Mahmoud Abbas, was not mentioned even once in all of Trump's lengthy speeches, which were replete with self-congratulatory remarks.

Celebrations in Damascus after President Donald Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, on Tuesday.Credit: Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP

It was no coincidence that the Syrian story became the primary diplomatic focus of Trump's visit. It contains much more than the granting of diplomatic and financial credit to Syria's president and the opening of a historic opportunity for a country that had for decades been a pariah as far as the U.S. was concerned.

Al-Sharaa, who was born in Saudi Arabia, was a terrorist who fought against U.S. forces in Iraq. He was detained and imprisoned for five years, part of the time in the notorious Abu Ghraib prison. He joined al-Qaeda and established the Syrian branch of the organization, under the name Jabhat al-Nusra. He refused to join the Islamic State (ISIS) and even fought against it.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, shortly after capturing Damascus, in 2024.Credit: Al Jazeera English Youtube Screencap

In 2016, he broke off his relations with al-Qaeda and established an organization called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an organization which remains on the list of international terrorist organizations. With this organization, he toppled the Assad regime last December.

Shaking the hand of a terrorist is not a "novelty" presented by Trump in his meeting with al-Sharaa. The American president had in the past shaken the hands of the Taliban when he signed an agreement with them that enabled a partial withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan.

He has also achieved a cease-fire "agreement" with the Houthis, which he himself had added to the list of international terror groups. The president had indeed no shortage of compliments to his host, Mohammed Bin Salman, the person identified by U.S. intelligence as someone directly involved in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

To his ongoing series, "My meetings with terrorists," Trump could also add the direct dialogue conducted by Adam Boehler, his envoy for hostage affairs, with Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy head of Hamas' political bureau.

Israel as an empty vessel

In Syria, Trump expressed the new balance of forces as he would like to shape it. He ignored Israel's objections to the lifting of sanctions and embraced the positions of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, which presented themselves as guarantors for al-Sharaa's "good behavior." Whereas Israel looks to Syria only through its own keyhole, Trump was convinced by the regional strategic implications that such a move would yield to him.

President Donald Trump is greeted by Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani as he arrives on Air Force One at Hamad International Airport in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday.Credit: Alex Brandon/AP

Turkish and Saudi patronage, under an American umbrella, places Syria fully in the pro-American camp, raising a fortified wall against Iranian ambitions to return to the region. This will allow Trump to complete the withdrawal of American forces from Syria and promote the integration of Syrian Kurds into Syria's governing apparatus, especially in the wake of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey has been fighting for 45 years, announcing that it was disbanding.

The lifting of sanctions will open a route for the supply of electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt to Syria and Lebanon. With the onset of reconstruction, millions of Syrians can begin to make their way home from European countries, Lebanon and Turkey.

Regarding Syria's joining the Abraham Accords, one shouldn't hold one's breath for now or make plans for a weekend jaunt to Damascus. Al-Sharra did say that he would be willing to join the accords when "the conditions are right." But these conditions will include Israel's withdrawal not only from areas it took over during the current war, but from the entire Golan Heights.

Trump has obviously not forgotten that he was the one who, in 2019, formally recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights and even had a village there named after him. It's true that many countries have full diplomatic relations with countries with which they have border disputes, solutions to which are reached through negotiations, but it's highly doubtful that Israel and Syria will adopt this kind of model.

Trump Heights in February.Credit: Gil Eliyahu

At the same time, Syria has a role to play in the demarcation of the land border between Israel and Lebanon, something which is included in the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Completing the demarcation, which could end the conflict over borders with Lebanon, demands Syrian acquiescence so that the territorial affinity of the Shebaa farms, which comprises one of the major bones of contention between Israel and Lebanon, can be finally determined.

No less important is the message conveyed to Iran by lifting the sanctions on Syria. Tehran, which is in the midst of intense negotiations with the U.S. over a new nuclear accord, is demanding in exchange the lifting of the sanctions imposed on it.

The manner in which Trump is revoking sanctions on Syria, in a "technical" announcement, as someone doing a favor for his friends, without first consulting Congress or considering Israel's position, may assuage Iranian concerns on the American guarantees it wishes to receive. Steve Witkoff, who is leading the negotiations on Trump's behalf, could use the example of Syria in order to convince Iran about the manner in which things will be done in the Trump era.

In this regard, it is very important to consider the Saudi position, which, in contrast to its opposition to the original nuclear accord signed in 2015, now supports it and even contributed its part to furthering the negotiations. Trump, who knows the Saudi position, which opposes any military action against Iran, echoed this when he refrained from threatening Iran with "opening the gates of hell" if it doesn't sign a deal soon. He instead made do with a commitment to exert "maximal economic pressure," which would completely prevent Iran from exporting any oil.

The president, who repeated his commitment not to allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, also refrained from determining during this visit that Iran could not enrich uranium, in contrast to statements made by Witkoff recently on Breitbart, according to which Iran would have to dismantle its nuclear program, refrain from enriching uranium and remove the centrifuges before sanctions were lifted.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the district court, last week.Credit: Moti Milrod

The tectonic movements generated by Trump in the Middle East have not yet been internalized in Israel, which is engaged in tactical operations and taking pride in local achievements, such as the as-yet unverified assassination of Mohammed Sinwar, or the bombing of ports in Yemen, with most of its energy invested in preserving the coalition's power.

Israel is not prepared for a new nuclear accord with Iran. It has no diplomatic plan for resolving the war in Gaza or the Palestinian issue in general, as the international envelope surrounding Israel, including the American one, is gradually cracking, some of it falling off completely. If up to a year and a half ago Israel was considered to be part of a regional defense system, a leading partner in an anti-Iranian coalition due to its amazing military and intelligence-gathering prowess, now that it is required to demonstrate diplomatic skills and original strategic thinking, it is finding itself an empty vessel, devoid of content.