Every strategist knows that
wars are not just won by force. Soft power matters, which is why the
Trump administration’s latest move to bar Harvard University from
enrolling international students will resonate so badly across Asia.
America
and China are already locked in a battle for influence — but Washington
risks sabotaging those goals. Even before the Harvard controversy
emerged Thursday, the U.S. Embassy in Singapore posted a video on social
media last week likening China’s sweeping South China Sea territorial
claims to disputes over shared spaces in Singapore’s public housing
blocks. It did more than just raise eyebrows.
The
online clip landed with a thud, touching a national nerve. More than
80% of Singaporeans live in public housing — a highly prized source of
social and economic stability, and many voiced their complaints online.
China’s
embassy responded, accusing the U.S. of distorting the facts and being a
"hypocritical preacher,” while Singapore said it "rejects attempts by
foreign embassies here to incite domestic reactions to international
issues involving third countries.” The city-state is usually measured in
tone, so this public reprimand stood out. While it didn’t name either
China or the U.S., the message appeared to be clearly directed at
Washington.
Still,
America remains a beacon for many in the region, a land of opportunity
where young Asians aspire to study, work and build their futures. But
those ambitions are at risk with the Trump administration’s latest move,
which Harvard has called unlawful. This is hardly the way to win over
the next generation, particularly if this extends to more universities.
India
sends the most number of students to study in the U.S., with 331,602 in
the 2023-2024 school year, according to the Institute of International
Education, while China sends the second highest, with 277,398 students.
Many are likely to be future leaders in government and industry,
potentially instrumental in nurturing later relations.
Just
look at the current crop of Indian-origin tech leaders in the U.S.,
including Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella, who studied
at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, or the chief
executive officer of Alphabet Sundar Pichai, who went to the Wharton
School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Beijing
is already leading the economic game. Around 70% of countries trade
more with China than they do with America, according to the Lowy
Institute. Compare that to 2001, the year China acceded to the World
Trade Organization, when over 80% of nations had a larger volume of
trade with America. It is almost a direct reversal.
In
contrast, the White House has strained trade relations with allies and
partners alike. U.S. President Donald Trump announced higher tariffs on
scores of nations on April 2, but later paused them for 90 days, as
investors panicked and markets fell. But duties are still higher than
before he was elected. This has rattled Asian countries, which are
trying to negotiate better terms for their economies.
Soft
power is the latest arena to sway opinions. Washington is merely
paralleling what Beijing has regularly done, notes Ja Ian Chong,
associate professor in political science at the National University of
Singapore. "This is a feature of the intensifying competition,” he told
me. "The Americans feel pressured to respond to the narrative China is
pushing. As the world grows more contested, we’ll see more of this.”
Beijing’s
diplomatic outreach has been known to be aggressive, but the change in
tone was really noticeable around 2019, when ambassadors and the foreign
ministry took to social media to push back against the first Trump
administration’s characterization of the world’s second-largest economy
as an unfair trade partner. This was dubbed "wolf warrior diplomacy,” a
reference to a 2015 nationalist action movie.
The
pandemic raised tensions even further. Both sides used social media and
memes to shape their narratives. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency
released videos mocking the American pandemic response, though Beijing’s
own "zero-COVID" strategy would later collapse following public
protests.
Meanwhile,
the U.S. military reportedly launched a secret social media campaign to
undermine China’s growing influence in the Philippines, casting doubt
about the safety of vaccines supplied by Beijing, according to a Reuters
investigation. Washington also ramped up its own pandemic aid, pledging
$274 million in assistance through the State Department and USAID, in
addition to earlier contributions to the World Health Organization and
UNICEF.
That
reality no longer holds true. In March, the Trump administration
canceled 83% of American foreign aid contracts, leaving a vacuum China
was only too happy to fill. The reaction to the recent 7.7 magnitude
earthquake in Myanmar is a case in point. Chinese and Russian teams were
among the first to provide emergency response personnel and key
supplies, while aid cuts significantly limited the U.S. response. Just
last week Beijing announced it will give an additional $500 million to
the World Health Organization over five years, which would help make up
the U.S. shortfall.
America
remains the most important security partner to many nations in the
region. Still, the relentless economic tensions, White House mood swings
and now actions that jeopardize the education of some of Asia’s
brightest future leaders will lose the U.S. friends in a region that has
long admired it. A reassessment is overdue.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.