The Asian Art of Hedging in the
Time of Donald Trump
By Tan See Seng
No. 118/2025 dated 29 May 2025
SYNOPSIS
For a long time now, Asia has perfected the art of living dangerously through carefully treading between the rival behemoths, America and China. What Asia has done well, it must now do even better amid the challenging conditions set by US President Donald Trump.
COMMENTARY
On
May 31, delegates at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2025 in Singapore will
hear what United States President Donald Trump wants to say to Asia, as
delivered by his defence secretary Pete Hegseth.
In February at
the Munich Security Conference, Mr Trump’s vice president, JD Vance,
shocked many by dismissing the risk of Russian political interference, instead directing scathing criticism at European leaders. At the same event, then Singapore defence minister Ng Eng Hen described America’s image as having morphed “from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent” in Asia’s eyes.
In
its 100-plus days in office, the second Trump administration has sought
to remake the world by upending the United States’ traditional role as
the guarantor of world order. But when Mr Hegseth made his first visit
to Asia back in March, he sought to reassure Indo-Pacific allies and
partners of the US commitment to their security and to the region, amid
lingering concerns over China’s growing assertiveness.
As Mr
Hegseth put it, “America First does not mean America alone” – presumably
because America still needs the cooperation of Asian friends if its
China strategy were to succeed.
Engaging Trump’s America
But what precisely does America’s reassurance, limited and conditional as it appears, entail for Asia?
Like
everywhere else, Asia has been hit by US tariffs, with China’s as high
as 145 per cent, Vietnam’s at 46 per cent and Singapore’s at 10 per cent
(despite the island’s trade deficit and zero-tariff policy under a free
trade agreement with the United States).
Mr Trump’s levies are
aimed at provoking Asian countries to renegotiate their extant trade
deals with America, while using tariff concessions as pressure to curb
their trade with China.
For the man who wrote The Art Of The
Deal, Mr Trump’s reassurances are somewhat disingenuous and are better
understood as purely Shylockian deals with their requisite pounds of
flesh.
Granted, America under Mr Trump's predecessor was also
transactional, although Joe Biden’s, as Singapore’s former top diplomat
Bilahari Kausikan has observed, was of the “polite” variety in contrast
to Mr Trump’s “in-your-face” version.
And anyone who fails to appreciate and accept this does so at their own peril.
Unsurprisingly,
it is Asia’s vaunted pragmatism that best furnishes a way forward. What
Asia has done well, it must now do even better amid the challenging
conditions set by Mr Trump. In this respect, three road-tested
strategies come to mind.
Quid Pro Quo
The quid pro quo, or something given in exchange for something, is the foundation of transactional agreements and contracts.
During
Mr Trump’s first presidency, his long-held bugbears against Asians –
their purported failure to fulfil their alliance commitments or to trade
fairly with America – were seemingly assuaged when Asian countries
reciprocated by buying more US products or providing goodwill services
to the Americans.
For example, Singapore has systematically
bought more from America than it has sold and actively facilitated the
US military presence in the Indo-Pacific – a strategy that has hitherto
worked for Asian countries that can afford to do so.
That the
United States, in its dealings with China, requires the support of the
region now more than ever underscores the need for America and Asia to
cooperate to each other’s mutual benefit. It is rather telling that,
other than China and India, none of the Asian countries responded with
retaliatory levies against the United States.
Arguably, such
goodwill gestures and incentives, if pursued quietly without
grandstanding and pontificating, could elicit the requisite quid pro
quos for Asia – much like how, during the Trump 1.0 years, America
responded with its Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, which authorised
US$1.5 billion annually in support of Mr Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Granted, relying on the quid pro quo can be risky, so long as one side refuses to play by the rules.
Appeasing
Trump may not work for Asia today as it did during Trump 1.0. Given the
undue influence enjoyed today by Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great
Again) base in policymaking, some believe that America has gone beyond
the pale.
But as the constant flip-flopping of his tariff policy
or his minerals agreement with Ukraine suggests, there might well be a
method to Mr Trump’s madness where a logic of reciprocity still applies.
True
to his salesman instincts, he is still looking for the best deal in
town – or at least the one he can sell as a win. This is where non-US
alternatives could prove significant.
Walking Among Giants
For
a long time now, Asia has perfected the art of living dangerously
through carefully treading between the rival behemoths, America and
China.
Far from neutral, Asian countries effectively take
positions on issues that either see them variously siding with
Washington or Beijing – what behaviour academics call “hedging” – but
which realistically reflect what those countries deem as best for
themselves.
Hedging is not for the fainthearted because it can
provoke harsh reactions from big powers that feel slighted or betrayed.
But it creates the necessary strategic space that smaller states
otherwise would not have if they were to hew too closely to any one
great power.
Asian countries would do well to de-risk themselves
from America by engaging other powers. This refers not only to China but
also to Australia, India, Japan, and Europe (which have their own
challenges with Mr Trump).
Indeed, dependence on China carries
its own risks – as the Philippines discovered when former President
Rodrigo Duterte’s courting of Beijing failed to produce the desired
economic and security outcomes for Manila.
Between Power and Principle
It
was not long ago when pundits debated whether Asia would be better off
with a US-led liberal order or a China-led authoritarian one. With its
rejection of liberal values, globalism and even multilateralism, Mr
Trump’s America, in baldly privileging power over principle, has
basically rendered that discussion moot.
Does Asia’s pragmatism
automatically denote a default vote for power rather than principle? Not
necessarily so, for a pragmatic course implies taking the middle path
between the two.
But why should Asia – a region unlikely ever to be accused of being liberal – adopt the via media
rather than just embracing the new normal of unbridled power politics,
perpetrated by the former paragon of principle, and fatalistically
accepting its consequences?
Bluntly put, with America having cast
aside its global leadership role, Asia must do all it can to preserve
the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific – without which the dire
prospect of Asia becoming like the Ukraine of today (as the Japanese
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently warned) would only increase.
How
Asia responds to Mr Trump’s America will shape the security, stability,
and prosperity of our region. There is no greater urgency than the
present, where Asia must exercise its agency with all the prudence,
discretion and creativity that Asians can muster. The onus for the
future of this region is ours to bear.
Tan
See Seng is the president and chief executive of International Students
Inc in the United States, concurrently research adviser for the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and senior associate
at the Centre for Liberal Arts and Social Sciences at Nanyang
Technological University (NTU). This commentary was published in Channel News Asia on 29 May 2025. It is republished here with permission.