May 31, 2025
The U.S. President is performing one of his usual stunts:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump - May 30, 2025, 12:09 UTC...
I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual. Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!! The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!
Trump's take is, of course, nonsense. But to see that one has to take a step back.
Trump had raised absurdly high tariffs against China which then had responded in kind. Additional hostile measures imposed by the U.S. were targeting China's import and production of semiconductors.
In response China limited the export of products for which it holds a monopoly. These are mainly rare-earth elements and magnets produced with them. While these are rather small items trade-wise they are needed to make modern electrical motors and are thus a significant part of the supply chain for higher level production items.
The high tariffs on products from China threatened to lead to empty shelves in U.S. markets. The financial markets were concerned. The U.S. dollar, stocks markets and treasuries decreased in price. A financial crisis was developing. Trump had to pull back.
On May 11 the U.S. and Chinese trade representative met in Geneva. In a Joint Statement they agreed on a pull back from high tariffs and to pause other trade related measures. The preamble of the deal is making the most important points:
The Government of the United States of America (the “United States”) and the Government of the People’s Republic of China (“China”),Recognizing the importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and the global economy;
Recognizing the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship;
Reflecting on their recent discussions and believing that continued discussions have the potential to address the concerns of each side in their economic and trade relationship; and
Moving forward in the spirit of mutual opening, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect;
The Parties commit to take the following actions by May 14, 2025:
Both sides reduced their tariffs. China also promised to reduce some of its non tariff measures:
China will [..] adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.
The financial markets relaxed and everyone was happy about it.
But on May 14, the very same day the new rules were to apply, the U.S. introduced new and extremely harsh measures against Chinese products:
The US Commerce Department issued guidance stating that the use of Huawei Technologies Co’s Ascend artificial intelligence (AI) chips “anywhere in the world” violates the government’s export controls, escalating US efforts to curb technological advances in China.The agency’s Bureau of Industry and Security said in a statement on Tuesday that it is also planning to warn the public about “the potential consequences of allowing US AI chips to be used for training and inference of Chinese AI models”.
While this may not have been a technical breach of the Geneva agreement it certainly violated the spirit of the agreed upon Joint Statement:
Barely a week into a U.S.-China truce in their long-running trade war, Beijing has accused Washington of violating the temporary agreement reached in Geneva.The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Monday that the U.S. was taking "discriminatory measures" against China, after the U.S. Commerce Department recently warned American businesses to avoid Chinese-made microchips, specifically those produced by Chinese tech giant Huawei.
Both countries have walked back a series of punitive actions against the other as part of a 90-day pause agreed at the recent talks in Switzerland after U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed heavy tariffs. A consultation mechanism was created to discuss their wide-ranging trade disagreements, but the scope of the special channel may now be under dispute.
The Chinese government's strongly worded pushback against sustained U.S. industrial policy in emerging and critical technologies—such as advanced computer chips fueling the race for AI supremacy—suggests the deep-rooted economic security concerns present in both camps will not be easily addressed despite agreements on paper.
China demanded that the U.S. "correct its mistakes". As the U.S. made not attempt to do so China slow walked (archived) the lifting of export restrictions on rare-earth metals and on magnets made thereof:
On May 12, the countries announced after weekend meetings in Geneva that they would suspend most of their recently imposed tariffs. Since then, however, both governments have shown that they are still prepared to wield controls over critical exports as weapons against one another, with moves that are potentially even more damaging to trade and global supply chains.China has restricted its exports of rare earth magnets, which are crucial for cars, semiconductors, aircraft and many other applications. Close to 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals, including magnets, are produced in China.
And the United States on May 13 banned the latest semiconductors from Huawei, a Chinese electronics giant. Then on Wednesday, President Trump suspended the shipment of American semiconductors and some aerospace equipment needed for China’s commercial aircraft, the C919, a signature project in China’s push toward economic self-reliance.
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Last week, Ford Motor temporarily closed a factory in Chicago that makes Ford Explorer sport utility vehicles after one of its suppliers ran out of the magnets. In most new cars, the magnets are used in dozens of electric motors that operate brake and steering systems, fuel injectors and even power seats.On Monday, China granted some export licenses for rare earth magnets to be shipped to the United States and Europe, ...
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Several companies in Europe, including Volkswagen, were granted permission by Beijing to continue procuring rare earth magnets soon after China began enforcing export controls on them in April. American companies have been juggling factory schedules, reassigning their dwindling magnet supplies to continue making their most profitable products.
China asserts that the U.S. is in breech of the Geneva agreement. As the U.S. introduced new non-tariff barriers against Chinese products China has stopped to lift its own non-tariff measures against the export of products the U.S. needs.
Trump's claim that China "HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US" is obfuscating the fact that the U.S. was the first to violate its commitments.
This again proves that the U.S. is non-agreement-capable (недоговороспособны(archived)).
Anyone dealing with it is well advised to always keep measures in hand that can be used to compel adherence to whatever agreement is made.
China, like Russia, Iran and others, has long learned that.
So what is Mr. NICE GUY going to do about that?
Posted by b on May 31, 2025 at 11:01 UTC | Permalink