Today Ukraine made another major attempt at taking down the Kerch bridge, resulting in its most miserable failure so far.
I’m no structural engineer, but Ukraine claimed to have ‘damaged’ an underwater piling that’s critical to one of the Kerch’s main spans:
The attack featured several waves of drones, the first of which tried to bypass Russian perimeter defenses in the form of water barriers by blowing them up. There is some dispute over what ‘object’ Ukraine actually hit the bridge with: Ukraine claims they spent months secretly delivering 1,000kg+ of explosives to the bottom of the piling, while some Russian sources claim this is a lie and that the bridge was hit with another garden variety sea drone, though it is not visible in the footage above. Other sources like Oleg Tsarev yet say the new Ukrainian underwater Toloka drone was used, shown here:
Crimean Bridge is intact. SBU is lying as usual
➖"Ukraine shows an attempt to blow up the Crimean Bridge and claims that more than a ton of explosives were attached to one of the underwater supports of the bridge. The SBU is lying, - notes Oleg Tsarev .
➖"According to my information, it was an underwater drone attack. You can see it in the video, which I will not publish, if you look closely. The drone was clearly small, the power of the explosion was very small, the SBU's goal was exclusively PR and recording a video of the explosion. It is not for nothing that it ends BEFORE all the "steam" has gone - the damage is purely cosmetic.
▪️ The bridge is functioning normally, cars are driving from Crimea and to Crimea, there is zero damage ."
In fact, the attack was mostly repelled as both Russian Lancets and FPV drones took out a large amount of Ukrainian sea drones:
More importantly is the timing of the attack: again after a week-long spate of terror strikes on Russian trains, assassinations of Russian civilians (Gurtsiev incident), culminating in the mass drone attack on Russian bases which also used unwitting civilians as expendable cargo.
Former Ukrainian Economic Minister:
Now, apparently the Kerch was supposed to be brought down as a major coup de grace.
Imagine the plan’s sweep as Zelensky envisioned it: the entire Russian strategic bomber fleet was supposed to be taken out with the Kerch bridge toppling over nearly the next day. The information package surely prepared for such an event would have seen news outlets worldwide screaming that Russia has fallen, inciting thousands of ‘disgruntled’ Russians to storm the streets and oust Putin. How ‘glorious’ it all must have looked in the crenulated crevices of Zelensky’s foggy brain.
But it was for naught: both attacks failed.
A Russian source reports that the results of Ukraine's second attack on the Kerch bridge failed to cause any damage to the bridge itself, and only damaged 2 mesh fences and a decommissioned barge which served as a barrier. The Russian coast guard and Black Sea Fleet destroyed most of the USVs.
Even now, more images have streamed out showing the vast majority of Russian bases did not suffer any damage as claimed by Ukraine during the ‘surprise drone attack’.
Even new photos claiming to show “destroyed” planes is more than questionable:
How does one possibly affirm those as “destroyed” in the satellite snap above?
AiTelly did release a useful video showing how the attacks were carried out at least:
All in all, it turns out all Russia’s most important bases which actually take part in the SMO—like Olenya, Engels, Ryazan Dyagilevo, etc., repelled the attacks, while the only base that appears to have suffered hits was the least consequential one in the Far East region of Irkutsk. It’s a given this one had the least defensive capabilities or preparedness compared to the flagship bases.
During the Ukrainian strike on the Crimean Bridge, NATO recon planes — U-2S, B-350ER, CL-650, E-7T — closely monitored the battle. Routine flights? No — coordinated ops to track Russian positions.
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The other news item of note was the second round of Istanbul talks. Though the talks transpired in exactly the way we all predicted, the one interesting development was the slight ongoing clarification of Russia’s position which seems to be taking place with each new exchange:
Full text of the Russian memorandum on ending the conflict in Ukraine:
▪️International recognition of Crimea, LPR, DPR, Zaporizhia, Kherson regions as part of the Russian Federation.
▪️Prohibition of Ukraine from joining any military alliances and coalitions.
▪️Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from new Russian territories and establishment of a 30-day ceasefire.
▪️Dissolution of nationalist groups in Ukraine.
▪️Legislative ban on the glorification and propaganda of Nazism.
▪️Giving the Russian language official status.
▪️Lifting martial law in Ukraine and holding elections.
The conditions for a ceasefire remain the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from four regions, the cessation of arms supplies and mobilization.
Military Informant
Though we’ve known most of the items above for a long time, there were many uncertainties about some of the notions, which Russia has gradually spelled out more clearly. For instance, rather than the deliberately vague “deNazification” mandate, now they specify “dissolution of nationalist groups in Ukraine” as well as legislation banning the glorification of Nazism.
Similarly, when Putin had seemingly contradicted earlier “no ceasefires first” positions by vaguely claiming Russia would “immediately” halt all fighting if Ukraine were to simply take the step of withdrawing from annexed Russian regions, we now see how that ties into the overall Russian design: Russia will agree to a 30-day ceasefire only upon the total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the designated territories.
Apart from that, the negotiations were dismissed merely as “humanitarian” in nature, in that they did not advance any real eye-to-eye between the two sides but rather dealt again with very preliminary coordinating of further prisoner and dead body exchanges.
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I have to cut this report short as I’m traveling and there’s been a severe power outage where I’m staying. But we’ll mention a few last items.
Russian advances have continued in the Sumy region, with troops pushing down the main road from Oleksiivka:
Sumy city itself is now visible from Russian positions at less than 20km out:
On the map above, circled in yellow is Yablunovka where Russian forces continue to storm the northern part of the village. Confusingly enough, Russian forces of the 33rd Regiment have begun storming a different Yablunovka on the Konstantinovka front, which they released fresh footage of, and a note on the tactics used below:
Geolocation: 48.393561,37.620765
The network got a good video of the 33rd regiment's work in storming villages and fortified points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the offensive on Konstantinovka. First of all, Maviks fly into enemy positions with discharges, which clear the dugouts and smoke out the AFU infantry from there.
Then fly FPV drones, suppressing the infantry that survived in the trenches, catching up with the AFU in any nooks and crannies. While this is happening, our stormtroopers are infiltrating the landing and clearing out the survivors.
The enemy pulls up units for a counterattack, but it is repulsed again with the support of our mavists and their coordination from the air. Our snipers are firing at approaching heavy drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. All these maneuvers and interactions are not given just like that - the skill is practiced at the training ground.
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Last note, though the new Ukrainian terror and provocation campaign has mostly failed thus far, there are whisperings of further large-scale action. Not only have some Ukrainian accounts posted their usual ‘winking’ hints, but Russian sources suggest that even the Kerch bridge attack was a possible prelude to another larger operation:
GUR of Ukraine is planning something in Crimea. Recently, a consolidated unit from the 2nd detachment of SpN 10 of the separate SpN GUR center arrived in Primorskoye. Up to 70 people, plus up to 30 former prisoners. The group is commanded by Captain Dmitruk, call sign "Cross".
In September 2024, he led special operations of the GUR on the Black Sea, including the attack on the Crimea-2 offshore platforms. The arrival of UAV operators in the number of 25 people from the same 2nd detachment, with 40 light drones of the "Dart"aircraft type, is expected soon.
The naval drone attack on Kerch could have been just a precursor to probe defenses, with something else in the works; lord knows the British never sleep when it comes to their perennial quest to harm Russia.
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A few last items:
In a rare lightbulb moment, Kellogg demonstrates an inkling of intelligence when it comes to Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s strategic nuclear triad:
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New Ukrainian report on Russian missile stockpiles:
Russia has huge reserves for a massive strike on Ukraine — GUR
▪️According to Ukrainian intelligence, as of mid-May, Russia has:
➖Iskander-M ballistic missiles - almost 600 units ;
➖Iskander-K cruise missiles - almost 300 units ;
➖X-22/32 cruise missiles - up to 300 units ;
➖Onyx cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles - 700 units ;
➖KN-23 ballistic missiles - 60 units ;
➖Anti-aircraft guided missiles for S-300P/S-400 - about 11 thousand units .
Speaking of—does anyone wonder if Russia is running out of Fab bombs? This look may give us a hint:
Russian aerial bombs with UMPK now fly up to 95 km — Kharkiv prosecutor's office
▪️Russia has begun using guided aerial bombs with extended-range gliding modules.
➖"Now the KABs fly a distance of up to 95 km and reach not only Kharkiv, but also communities to the south," said the head of the Kharkiv regional prosecutor's office, Borisenko.
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A very good and detailed report from a Russian channel about the Russian AD systems repelling recent drone attacks on Moscow and surrounding regions:
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Lastly, as the fitting capstone, notorious Rada MP Mariana Bezugla gives her strident assessment of Ukraine’s future outlook after the breakdown of peace talks and other imagined Ukrainian ‘last-hopes’:
Well, it seems she does see a light at the end of the tunnel after all. Hope lives on.
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