Will Trump Lose India?
An ally that welcomed his return to office has serious problems with his policies.
June 9, 2025 The Wall Street Journal
New Delhi
Among the handful of American allies and partners that welcomed Donald Trump’s return to power, India was the most important. Nearly five months into his second term, some of Mr. Trump’s strongest Indian supporters wonder if they made a mistake.
India expected some rough sledding on trade but hoped to see that offset by progress on other issues. Many Indians liked what they saw as Mr. Trump’s pragmatic approach to Russia. They anticipated fewer lectures from Washington on topics like minority rights. They welcomed the Abraham Accords in Mr. Trump’s first term and applauded his efforts to build Arab-Israeli peace on a foundation of regional economic cooperation. They appreciated his frank embrace of Narendra Modi’s India as a world power whose importance transcended geography and looked forward to an era of deepening U.S.-India friendship
What they got instead was a series of disagreeable surprises. Some deportations of Indians living illegally in the U.S. were expected; roughly 6,000 Indians were deported during Mr. Trump’s first term. But with Indian deportees initially shackled and transported on military aircraft weeks into the president’s second term, and the pace apparently picking up, harsh treatment of Indian migrants became a political issue in India. Opposition politicians criticized the Modi government for failing to stand up for Indians abroad.
Then there is the issue of Indians studying in the U.S. This is good news for American universities; as Chinese enrollment fell, India took up the slack. After increasing 23% from the previous year, 331,602 Indian students were enrolled on U.S. campuses in the 2023-24 school year, passing China’s 277,398. The State Department’s May 27, 2025, decision to stop scheduling new interviews for student visas shocked Indian officials, parents and students almost as much as it shocked American universities.
Add Mr. Trump’s remarks denouncing Apple’s plans to move iPhone production to India from China, and many Indians were already reconsidering their initial enthusiasm about the new American administration.
The American response to the April 22 Kashmir terror attack and the ensuing border hostilities between India and Pakistan made everything harder. Indian officials kept their cool, but politicians in all parties, as well as the broader public, were offended by the American response. Pakistan is a major supporter and funder of radical jihadist terror, and Indians wanted more from America than statements that both sides should calm down. Mr. Trump’s claims on Truth Social to have essentially mediated the dispute embarrassed the Indian government. Many Indians feel the U.S. is returning to the old days of “hyphenation,” when India wasn’t seen in America as a great power on its own but as half of the troublesome India-Pakistan rivalry.
Policymaking in Mr. Trump’s Washington is always somewhat impulsive, and we can expect a continuing stream of social media posts aimed primarily at domestic audiences. India, like the rest of the world, has to put up with this. But there are steps the Trump administration can take that keep the relationship on an even keel.
Americans often see the relationship as based on the two countries’ joint interest in balancing China. Indian elites see this too, but public opinion in India has different priorities. The first is economic growth. No Indian party can gain or hold power unless the public believes it knows how to make the economy grow. Anything involving trade, tech cooperation, immigration and student access to American education can blow up in the Indian press.
A close second is dignity. India wants to be treated as a great power, and public opinion is keenly sensitive to any slights, real or perceived. The treatment of India vis-à-vis Pakistan is a hot button. Despite its nuclear weapons, Pakistan is a second- or even third-tier power marked by serial and escalating economic and political failures. India is on a different trajectory, and Indian public opinion wants this success to be recognized.
Keeping these realities in mind can help Washington manage the relationship even when American and Indian interests don’t align. When illegal migrants face deportation (and with an estimated 725,000 Indians living illegally in the U.S., the third-largest total from any country, deportations are certain to continue), great care should be taken to minimize the effect on Indian public opinion. On issues ranging from the Kashmir conflict to student visas, Indian sensitivities should also be considered in crafting and announcing policy.
Team Trump can do better. Alienating the most important world power that viewed his return to office favorably isn’t in Mr. Trump’s best interest. Needlessly needling an important international partner won’t make America great again.
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Appeared in the June 10, 2025, print edition as 'Will Trump Lose India?'.