The
Pentagon has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus submarine deal with
the UK and Australia, throwing the security pact into doubt at a time of
heightened tension with China.
The
review to determine whether the US should scrap the project is being
led by Elbridge Colby, a top defence department official who previously
expressed scepticism about Aukus, according to six people familiar with
the matter.
Ending the
submarine and advanced technology development agreement would destroy a
pillar of security co-operation between the allies. The review has
triggered anxiety in London and Canberra.
While
Aukus has received strong support from US lawmakers and experts, some
critics say it could undermine the country’s security because the navy
is struggling to produce more American submarines as the threat from
Beijing is rising.
Australia
and Britain are due to co-produce an attack submarine class known as
the SSN-Aukus that will come into service in the early 2040s.
But
the US has committed to selling up to five Virginia class submarines to
Australia from 2032 to bridge the gap as it retires its current fleet
of vessels.
That commitment would almost certainly lapse if the US pulled out of Aukus.
Last
year, Colby wrote on X that he was sceptical about Aukus and that it
“would be crazy” for the US to have fewer nuclear-powered attack
submarines, known as SSNs, in the case of a conflict over Taiwan.
In
March, Colby said it would be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but
cautioned there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the coming
years” and that US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” to defend
Taiwan.
Sceptics of the
nuclear technology-sharing pact have also questioned whether the US
should help Australia obtain the submarines without an explicit
commitment to use them in any war with China.
Kurt
Campbell, the deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration who
was the US architect of Aukus, last year stressed the importance of
Australia having SSNs that could work closely with the US in the case of
a war over Taiwan. But Canberra has not publicly linked the need for
the vessels to a conflict over Taiwan.
The
review comes amid mounting anxiety among US allies about some of the
Trump administration’s positions. Colby has told the UK and other
European allies to focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce
their activity in the Indo-Pacific.
Jeanne
Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee,
told the FT that news of the administration backing away from Aukus
would “be met with cheers in Beijing, which is already celebrating
America’s global pullback and our strained ties with allies under
President Trump”.
“Scrapping
this partnership would further tarnish America’s reputation and raise
more questions among our closest defence partners about our
reliability,” Shaheen said.