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Seven Lies about Israel’s Attack on Iran
I was a US intelligence analyst. Trump and Netanyahu are lying to you.
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“The first casualty of war is truth” is such a tired cliché – and one so self-evident to anyone who served in the US intelligence community – that I only dare to put it in writing because this week the lies literally did start flying before the bombs Israel dropped on Iran, in what we can now safely call the start of a full-scale war. If we want any hope of interrupting a disastrous cycle of escalation, we need to intercept the volley of lies that have already been launched out of Tel Aviv and Washington.
1. Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon
Before, during, and after the first wave of Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military and nuclear leadership, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran was about to produce nuclear bombs – which he’s been warning since the 90s. Setting aside the Iranian government’s own denial that it was pursuing nuclear weapons – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suspended Iran’s nuclear program in 2003 – both the International Atomic Energy Association and Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard have affirmed earlier this year that Iran was not trying to build a nuclear weapon.
2. Israel’s attack on Iran was a preemptive strike required for self-defense
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz called the strikes “preemptive.” To preempt what? Preparations for a large-scale military operation are very hard to hide, whether it’s Russia invading Ukraine, Israel bombing Iran, or a supposed Iranian offensive against the state of Israel. Had the Iranian military – which is monitored obsessively by multiple US intelligence agencies – actually been staging for an attack on Israel, the Trump administration would be well aware and offering much more muscular support than it has so far. If Thursday’s strikes were to preempt anything, it was progress on the US-Iran nuclear talks that the Iranian government (if not our own) appeared to be pursuing in good faith.
3. Israeli military operations will prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon
This is really two fallacies in one. First, a bombing campaign simply cannot reliably destroy a nuclear program composed of dispersed personnel (even though Israel has been able to assassinate some of them) and deep subterranean facilities whose conditions are difficult to verify from afar. As Israel’s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi acknowledged Friday, destroying the program “cannot be done via kinetic means,” a conclusion consistent with my experience in the US intelligence community. The only way to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program with certainty is to have the Iranian government do it voluntarily, or through a ground invasion that would be needed to enter facilities by force.
This leads us to the second fallacy: That the purpose of Israel’s offensive is to dismantle the nuclear program. Knowing that airstrikes and covert operations can’t actually destroy Iran’s nuclear research and uranium enrichment capabilities, what does Netanyahu hope to achieve with his newest war? “Striking Iran’s nuclear program, striking its ballistic missile capabilities; attacking its capacity to destroy Israel via a ground attack,” Israeli media wrote, citing Tzachi Hanegbi. In other words, total pacification or de facto regime change, which is what the Israeli government has already demanded – and more or less helped achieve – in Lebanon and Syria over the past year. Given the strength and scale of the Iranian state, the only way Israel could realistically achieve this is through the US military.
4. The United States is not responsible for Israel’s attack
Shortly after Israel’s first strikes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement declaring, “We are not involved in strikes against Iran,” in an apparent attempt to distance the United States from the bombing and discourage reprisals from Iran against US troops in the region. He was quickly overruled by Trump, who cheered on the attacks and claimed he had full advance knowledge. No matter who knew what, and whether Trump explicitly gave Netanyahu a “green light” for the strikes, the United States literally fuels the Israeli war machine – the planes bombing Tehran this week use American jet fuel – and provides the munitions, repair parts, and other supplies needed to keep the Israeli military running day-to-day. Without that support – or without the hundreds of US troops manning air defense batteries in Israel right now – Israel would be unable to launch attacks in the region with impunity.
5. The attack will bring Iran to the table for a nuclear deal
Whether or not Trump actually believes in his post-strike appeal that “Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left,” reaching an agreement gets exponentially harder to do when Israel assassinates a top adviser on Iran’s nuclear negotiations. And the fact that Trump let Israel launch a massive attack while Washington and Tehran were in the middle of nuclear negotiations will prove to Tehran that it has nothing to gain from further talks. Plus, Netanyahu’s pledge for a long war against Iran means Tehran increasingly has little to lose by sprinting for a nuclear weapon.
6. Attacking the Iranian government will lead to a coup
Washington proponents of regime change in Iran have long hoped that weakening Iran’s rulers – whether through sanctions or now, a military blitz – would inspire Iranian people to rise up against their government. After this week’s attacks, this expectation has even less basis in reality than usual. However unpopular Khamenei may be in some sectors of Iranian society, he is not the one striking apartment buildings in Tehran.
7. Israel can “drag” the United States into a war against Iran
Both opponents and supporters of war with Iran understand that Netanyahu needs the United States military to do most of the fighting and worry – or hope – that he will “drag” the US into a new conflict. But no matter what Israel does – and even no matter what Iran does – an American war on Iran remains a war of choice. If the Trump administration bombs or invades Iran, it’s because they wanted to, not because Netanyahu somehow forced them.
Given the disastrous regional consequences, which would likely dwarf the fallout from the 2003 invasion of Iraq, we should be clear that agency lies in Washington and nowhere else.
Harrison Mann is a former US Army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency's Middle East/Africa Regional Center who resigned in protest of his office’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza under the Biden administration. He is currently with Win Without War.