Trumpets of Victory Are Sounding, but Its Alluring Melody Will Deceive Israelis
Israelis like wars, especially when they begin. There has not been a war yet which Israel – the entire country – has not rooted for at its onset; there has yet to be a war – other than the 1973 Yom Kippur War – that did not lead the entire country to express wonder at Israel's amazing military and intelligence capabilities, at its onset. And there has yet to be a war that did not end in tears.
Menachem Begin embarked on the first Lebanon war in a state of euphoria. He left it in a state of clinical depression. Begin as a parable. There is a good chance that this will also happen at the end of the war against Iran. We already have a euphoric beginning – war photo albums are already going to press – but this could well end in depression.
The wings on the uniforms of our air force pilots, covered with the blood of thousands of children and tens of thousands of innocent people, were purified in an instant after several sorties to Iran. What heroes, such a national outpouring of adulation for our air force has not been heard since the "miraculous" Six-Day War in 1967.
Look how they sent the missile through the balcony and the window. Even Benjamin Netanyahu was cleansed overnight, and once again, he is Winston Churchill, at least for some of us. TV stations and social media were gushing with self-praise.
Israeli security forces inspect destroyed buildings that were hit by a missile fired from Iran, near Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday.Credit: Ohad Zwigenberg,AP
"When we want to, we know how to stick the knife in and twist it," boasted Liat Ron on the Walla news website. "The 13th of June with its historic scope is another opportunity we cannot miss. Hats off to the IDF and long live the state of Israel!" wrote the journalist considered the most influential in Israel.
The first days of a war are always our nicest ones, the most intoxicating and pleasing ones. Look how we destroyed three air forces in 1967, or how we killed 270 traffic policemen on the first day of the 2009 Cast Lead operation in Gaza. It's always the same hubris, touting the achievements of the army and Mossad.
- Israel must avoid an all-out, destructive war of attrition with Iran
- Netanyahu knew what kind of war Israel was facing and still chose division
- Netanyahu and Khamenei want this war. Yet Iranians and Israelis have no reason to fight
On Friday, there were already people who, after only 100 sorties, were envisioning replacing Iran's regime. This swollen pride is always accompanied by a sense of righteousness. There was no choice in 1967 or in 1982 – no wars were more just than those two. On Friday, again, there was no other choice. The beginning is like something out of a movie; the end may be something out of a Greek tragedy.
By Friday night, the pleasant feeling had already given way to something else, as three rounds of sirens sent millions of people to their shelters, with the attendant destruction and fatalities. The nine dead Iranian nuclear scientists could not offset this; even the dead commander of the Revolutionary Guards (who has already been replaced) was no consolation.
Israel galloped into a war of choice which could have been prevented had it not convinced the U.S. to halt negotiating over a nuclear accord, which Donald Trump would be happy to sign. Israel did this believing that it had no choice, a hackneyed and familiar claim.
Israel is viewing the first day's achievements with blinkered eyes, without thinking of the days that will follow. After several months with visits to a bomb shelter three times a night, with an economy in ruins and morale in the pits, we'll start wondering if it really was worth it and if there really was no other choice. Such questions are not even legitimate ones now.
Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Sunday.Credit: Ohad Zwigenberg,AP
How much patience does Iran have compared to Israel? How capable is Tel Aviv of being under threat of missile attacks without turning into Kyiv, and how capable is Tehran?
This question must be asked before taking off to bomb Natanz, not after the pilots return in glory. This isn't an attempt to rain on people's joyful parade, but rather a sober look at reality, and mainly a learning of lessons from the past, which Israel refuses to do.
Was there any war from which Israel emerged stronger in the long run? Was there even one war in which Israel had no choice? The war against Iran may turn into one the likes of which we have not yet seen.
The only slim chance to end it soon depends to a large extent on the whimsical president in Washington. It is definitely the most dangerous war Israel has ever faced. It is a war we may yet regret more than any of the previous ones.