Image Source: Gustave Doré – Doré’s English Bible
It should be evident to all that it would not make sense for any country to possess nuclear weapons if that country would never consider using them even if it were facing a humiliating military defeat.
This was at least theoretically relevant to the war in Ukraine, where European “leaders” initially hoped — and some appear still to hope — to inflict a humiliating defeat upon Russia.
Have these “leaders” never considered that, were they ever to be close to “success” in achieving this objective, it would be entirely rational for the Russian leadership to use Russia’s nuclear weapons — potentially not against Ukraine but, rather, against their own countries?
Fortunately, this was never a serious threat, because inflicting a humiliating defeat upon Russia, which is vastly larger than Ukraine, patient and certain to prevail in any long-lasting war of attrition, has always been inconceivable.
However, there is ample cause to be worried about the threatened or actual use of nuclear weapons arising out of Israel’s current war of aggression against Iran.
Israel is vastly smaller than Iran, impatient and unlikely to prevail in any long-lasting war of attrition.
Israeli leaders are already quite frank and open in arguing that Israel cannot hope to achieve its declared objectives in this war unless President Trump decides, contrary to international law, the U.S. Constitution and the wishes of a substantial majority of the American people, to participate directly in higher-level military action against Iran.
It is not unreasonable to imagine that, if Trump continues to hesitate in the coming days, Prime Minister Netanyahu will tell Trump that, unless the United States actively joins the fight to “finish the job” and “end the war” with its bunker-buster bombs and other massive destructive capabilities, Israel will have no choice but to use its nuclear weapons against Iran in order to do so.
A bluff? Who would know? Who would wish to find out?
Netanyahu is fond of biblical references as justifications for his crimes. “Amalek” for the extermination of the people of Gaza. “Operation Rising Lion” for his war against Iran.
For decades, the “Samson Option” has been evoked with respect to Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
John V. Whitbeck is a Paris-based international lawyer.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/06/20/the-real-nuclear-threat-in-iran