The dysfunction of Thai politics — responsible for roughly a dozen coups since 1932 — is again on full display, with the government at risk of losing control over parliament less than a year after taking power.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand’s youngest prime minister and the third member of her family to lead the country, lost her coalition’s second-largest party this week, leaving her with a razor-thin majority.
After weeks of infighting over cabinet posts, Bhumjaithai pulled the plug, citing a leaked phone call in which the 38-year-old criticized the role of Thailand’s military in a border dispute with Cambodia.
The fact that the call was with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, fueled the controversy, sparking opposition calls for Paetongtarn to resign and sending hundreds of activists onto the streets.
What was once a formidable coalition has been whittled down to an alliance on the brink.
Paetongtarn’s bloc now controls about 255 seats in the 495-member House of Representatives and can’t afford further defections. Yet the conservative United Thai Nation Party could walk if she refuses to step down, according to local media reports.
The political chaos couldn’t come at a worse time. The economy is on the edge of a technical recession and bracing for fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught.
Even if Paetongtarn survives, analysts warn the damage could linger — stalling key legislation, undercutting trade talks with Washington and shaking investor confidence in already-weak Thai assets.
Then there’s the armed forces. Thailand’s most-recent military coups, in 2006 and 2014, toppled governments led by Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin, and her aunt, Yingluck.
Despite assurances from the army chief about safeguarding democracy, fears of another intervention are rising.
For now, Paetongtarn appears stuck — with few good options and even fewer allies. — Philip Heijmans