One way to make sense of the ceasefire
whiplash of the last 24 hours is that it was an Israel ploy, likely to
succeed, to give Trump a stake in the exchanges of fire between Israel
and Iran. Before, despite Trump repeatedly admitting that his real
objective was “unconditional surrender” and “regime change,” the US was
hewing to the fiction that its objective was the elimination of Iran’s
nuclear enrichment program. That was consistent with Trump’s initial
posturing, that the strikes on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were to be
“one and done,” that Iran should suck them up and get back to the capitulation negotiating table….which Israel, with US backing, had kicked over in its June 13 attack.
For those a bit behind the state of play, last night US time, Iran attacked an emptied US air base in Qatar, and according to some accounts, also a covert US base in Syria that is protecting oil (which is being largely if not entirely trucked into Israel). Iran warned the US of the attack. Trump then grandly announced a ceasefire starting at 4:00 AM, when the Iranians said they were not given any agreement and appear not to have even been given a heads up.
Iran had called for a ceasefire before negotiations, so they could hardly cavil about this extremely irregular process. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi tap danced a bit but mainly stuck to Iran’s pre-existing position, that Iran would stop firing on Israel if Israel stopped shooting at Iran.
But despite the ceasefire antics, that did not happen, or at least well enough to satisfy Iran, which had not agreed to any particular terms, which includes the start time. Israel made a significant attack on Iran right before the Israel-US designated commencement, and Iran shot back.
This ceasefire was such a transparent bit of theater as to be a joke. Consider additional uncomfortable facts:
Alastair Crooke has stressed that ceasefires typically break down in 2 to 3 weeks. He and others, notably Putin, have pointed out that effective ceasefires require agreement on many details, particularly the designation of independent monitors in sufficient numbers to keep tabs adequately. Nothing like this has happened.
Israel has a long-standing history of not respecting ceasefires. For recent examples, see Here’s how Israel is repeatedly violating the Lebanon ceasefire from Aljazeera last November.
And now we have Israel squealing that Iran violated this fake ceasefire so it will go back on the attack. From the Guardian:
Normal Israeli duplicity has gotten a very big, if also extremely clumsy, force multiplier in the form of Trump. So expect more extreme Truth Social utterances once Trump can get to a keyboard.
Update 7:00 AM EDT: Just as this post went live, Trump made his first pronouncement. From Associated Press:
President Donald Trump says both Israel and Iran violated ceasefire terms with attacks following an early Tuesday deadline to cease hostilities.
Trump made the comments to reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit at The Hague. He expressed disappointment about the continued attacks.
“They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
The Hill has a more pointed account:
“They don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” Trump told reporters at the White House before taking off for a trip to The Hague for the NATO Summit.
In a Truth Social post around the same time, Trump singled out Israel, in a remarkable move for the U.S. president, telling the longtime American ally: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Back to the original draft.
However, one has to wonder (aside from continued Israel derangement that the US can rescue Israel from the mess it created), how Israeli officials can think resuming the conflict is a bright idea. This is well in the terrain of the saying attributed to Einstein, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Israel is running out of air defense missiles. They aren’t hugely effective at the best of times (for instance, versus Iran’s hypersonics). Everyone knows additional Patriot missiles are scarce globally, and batteries even more so, and the US can’t begin to get enough produced to meet its various demands.
And when Israel is denuded of air defenses, which will happen on current trajectories, Iran can do plenty of damage with mere drones. No need for the high end kit.
Confirming our repeated “all tactics and no strategy” assessment of Trump, former UK diplomat Ian Proud weighs in (admittedly one step behind the Israel vow to start shooting again):
I met my fellow Realists last night to discuss the latest in Iran, after the attack on Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar.
That attack, which appears to have been carefully choreographed to demonstrate an Iranian response with limited scope for escalation, would have raised concerns in Doha and other Gulf States of the economic cost to them of entanglement in Netanyahu’s war.
It is interesting that the Iranian and Qataris this morning have spoken and reaffirmed the importance of their ties.
But the ceasefire that emerged on the back of the Iranian strike, heralded by Trump, appears already to have broken by both sides. That means the risk of other Iranian strikes on US facilities in the Gulf will remain and the pressure on Trump to up the ante will grow, in particular from the Israel lobby.
Keep in mind that Israel is already taking serious damage, at least relative to what its heretofore sheltered population had come to expect:
Recall that Alastair Crooke has also pointed out that Israel’s raison d’etre was to be a safe place for Jews. That is no longer true and may never be true again.
Iran has also suffered real damage (although how much is still not well known) and it already suffered from a very weak economy. However, North Korea is in vastly worse shape on that front yet still has formidable missile technology. We Westerners like to think that the legitimacy of a government depends on delivering rising prosperity, when at times of acute stress, other factors come into play. Vanessa Beeley points out in Trump yelling ‘ceasefire’ doesn’t mean ‘ceasefire’:
Iran has seen its regional popularity explode since Israel began its aggression. The popularity among the people of the region is unprecedented. If the US wanted to isolate Iran, Israel’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Also unprecedented and perhaps unexpected, after the efforts by the West to orchestrate internal divide in Iran, national cohesion within Iran is at its highest since 1979. The Western-backed opposition were completely overwhelmed by the backlash from Iranian society. Their isolation will not recover.
Many commentators, particularly Alexander Mercouris long form, have pointed out that the US bombing nuclear sites and the IEA not saying a peep shreds whatever little cred it had left. Even the Russians, which are nuclear-non-proliferation hawks, are pushing back against IEA demands:
In the meantime, all is not entirely quiet on the Strait of Hormuz front:
Readers have suggested that Iran actually has weeks worth of oil supply already on tankers at sea, which would buffer any short-term impact on China. Not sayin’ that Iran will do more than signal-jamming harassment, but if it feels it has to escalate, this IMHO is less bad than other not-great options.
Update 8:00 AM EDT: In a fresh interview, Larry Wilkerson says his contacts say that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would do so only for a week or so to get everyone’s attention and say it would close it again and for longer if necessary.
Back to the original post:
There are also stirrings in Iraq but it’s not yet clear what this portends:
Beeley noted:
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, multiple attacks were reported across Iraq. Taji Area, north of Baghdad. Baghdad International Airport. Balad – Salah Al Din Governorate. Balad Air Base, Al Bakr Air Base. Nasiryah – Dhi Qar governorate, Imam Ali Air Base in southern Iraq. No group has yet claimed responsibility but the attacks suggest a high level of coordination on the ground.
Yet more proof that the US is all in for Israel:
This is cringe-making.
While there is more commentary on US and Israeli fecklessness, given that the ceasefire is already falling apart, it seems premature to speculate further until we see what the “gang that can’t shoot straight” Team Trump does next. We’re not in “assume the brace position” mode yet, but risks are still far too much in play.