[Salon] Newest Senate Reconciliation Bill Would Explode the Debt





Newest Senate Reconciliation Bill Would Explode the Debt

June 28, 2025

See full paper on how Senate OBBBA Violates House Budget Instructions HERE

See full paper on how Senate Reconciliation Bill Could Add Over $4 Trillion to Debt HERE


Late last night, the Senate released an updated version of their One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reconciliation bill. Compared to the prior Senate version, which would have added approximately $3.5 to $4.2 trillion to the national debt by 2034, today’s draft increases the $10,000 State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for many taxpayers without any of the House bill’s limitations, removes the new ‘Section 899’ tax, delays proposed Medicaid savings, establishes a new fund for rural hospitals, removes budget-saving funding of ACA cost-sharing reductions (CSRs), and makes numerous other changes. 


Although we have not produced a full estimate of the bill, it appears to add roughly $4 trillion to the debt through 2034, including interest – which is roughly $1 trillion higher than the House-passed version of the bill. That cost could rise above $5 trillion if temporary provisions were made permanent.   


As our recent analysis shows, the bill would also likely violate the House reconciliation instructions – which require at least $2 trillion in spending cuts or else dollar-for-dollar reductions in tax cuts – by $500 billion or more.  


The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: 

If you thought the House bill borrowed too much – and it did – the Senate manages to make things even worse. This $4 trillion borrowing bonanza is fiscally dangerous at a time of already exploding debt. It would borrow $1 trillion more than the House bill, violates the House’s reconciliation instructions by hundreds of billions of dollars, and is littered with special interest giveaways. 


Compared to the House bill, the Senate waters down many of the spending cuts, expands the tax cuts, removes loophole closers, offers new vote-buying spending and tax breaks, creates a new radiation exposure entitlement program, and somehow ends up including a SALT cap expansion more egregious than the House version. And the bill continues to rely on arbitrary expirations that set the stage for $1 trillion or more of further borrowing.  


The Senate bill doesn’t even come close to meeting the House requirement for at least $2 trillion of spending cuts or else adjustments to the tax bill. 


And if that wasn’t bad enough, the bill would also accelerate the insolvency of Social Security and Medicare to 2032 – just seven years from now. 


Obviously, no lawmaker should vote on this bill without seeing the official score, but it is going to fall short by a stunning amount.   


The current Senate bill should be rejected out of hand. We already have debt approaching record levels and interest costs exploding. Now’s not the time to make our debt problems worse.  

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For more information, please contact Matt Klucher, Assistant Director of Media Relations, at klucher@crfb.org

Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget
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