Rubio’s Reassurances to ASEAN Ring Hollow
Published 16 Jul 2025
US Secretary of State came to Malaysia with well-crafted words about the importance of ASEAN, but his rhetoric is undermined by Washington’s protectionist trade policies.
It was a visit designed to reassure. Yet when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Kuala Lumpur for his first ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference last week, his message was already undercut by Washington’s latest salvo of tariffs. While Rubio sought to distance himself from the Trump administration’s trade decisions, the contrast between his warm rhetoric and the hard edge of protectionist policy left ASEAN leaders unconvinced.
The paradox was plain to see: the US called for deeper partnerships even as it penalised its partners with sweeping new duties. Three ASEAN countries — Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines — were slapped with higher tariff rates compared to the “Liberation Day” tariff schedule announced in April. The fact that Malaysia, ASEAN’s current chair, the Philippines, a longstanding US treaty ally, and Singapore — a US strategic partner which maintains a trade surplus with the US — were not spared only deepened the sense of strategic dissonance.
Rubio, like Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue, did what American diplomats have long done in Southeast Asia: affirm ASEAN’s centrality, reiterate its place in US Indo-Pacific strategy and promote cooperation in the digital economy, maritime security, combating transnational crime and people-to-people exchanges. He lauded US private investment and pointed to the 6,000 American companies operating in the region. He underscored ASEAN’s role as “not the periphery of any power,” but a bloc of sovereign states that Washington takes seriously. These words were well-crafted, but in the context of punitive tariffs, they rang hollow.
Rubio’s vague assurance that ASEAN countries might “end up with better rates than others” only reinforced the perception that US trade policy has become unpredictable, opaque and increasingly detached from shared multilateral rules. In a ministerial statement to Parliament in April, Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong highlighted that the US is “rejecting the very system it created” and cautioned that the US tariffs set a dangerous precedent and undermine the norms that have underpinned international trade.
While Singapore’s concerns may not reflect all of Southeast Asia, they nonetheless capture a growing anxiety among outward-oriented economies in the region. As highlighted in the State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey report, many in the city-state view the prospect of Trump 2.0 with unease. They are wary of a more transactional and self-serving US foreign policy that prioritises domestic political expediency over multilateral stability.
As Southeast Asia adapts to a world of fragmented power and weaponised trade, it is increasingly clear that hedging is not a fallback — it is a forward strategy.
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in his opening speech at the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM), also stressed the need to avoid weaponising trade and urged ASEAN to uphold the multilateral system. ASEAN leaders and economic ministers had earlier issued two separate statements also reaffirming principles such as an inclusive, free, fair and rules-based multilateral trading system. The Joint Communiqué of the 58th AMM went further, warning that protectionist measures are “counterproductive and risk exacerbating global economic fragmentation.” It was clear who the target of that message was.
With no ASEAN-US free trade agreement and no institutionalised mechanism for collective trade engagement, most ASEAN member states have defaulted to bilateral diplomacy. This allows countries to calibrate their concessions, whether through increasing imports of US goods, addressing tariffs and non‑tariff barriers or making symbolic investments in the US. Vietnam now serves as a benchmark. It has agreed to zero tariffs on US imports, while pledging major Boeing purchases. Last week, US President Donald Trump said that Vietnamese exports to the US would face tariffs of 20 per cent. Goods transhipped to the US via Vietnam would face a 40 per cent tariff.
However, such fragmented engagement weakens ASEAN’s economic bargaining power and opens the door to divide-and-rule dynamics. Some regional experts have proposed the establishment of an ASEAN common framework for trade talks with the US — a modest but perhaps necessary step toward greater regional coherence. The recently established ASEAN Geoeconomic Task Force (AGTF) is a first step towards assessing the region’s exposure to external economic shocks. It seeks to come up with coordinated policy responses to strengthen collective resilience.
At the same time, ASEAN is broadening its economic playbook. The ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference with China, held alongside the AMM, saw both sides endorse the upgraded ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA). The updated agreement includes new pillars on digital trade, green economy, and supply chain resilience — an unmistakable sign that ASEAN is not waiting on the US to move forward on trade integration. While tensions remain in the South China Sea, trade continues to anchor ASEAN-China relations, with Wang Yi positioning China as a reliable economic partner. ASEAN is also negotiating an FTA with Canada. Despite the geographical distance, this underscores the grouping’s intent to diversify trade partnerships beyond its immediate region.
The region is also exploring new alignments. The inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit earlier this year signalled a growing pivot to Global South partnerships, offering a mix of energy security, capital flows and diversification. These partnerships are not ideologically driven; they are pragmatic hedges against the volatility of Western trade policies. It is no coincidence that more ASEAN countries are now seriously considering BRICS plus membership, viewing it as a pathway to rebalancing the global economic order.
Domestically, ASEAN also needs to bolster its internal resilience. Prime Minister Anwar and Singapore Foreign Minister Balakrishnan have called on the grouping to double down on ASEAN integration and intra-regional trade. ASEAN knows that internal trade resilience is key to reducing exposure to the policy swings of external powers.
Rubio’s debut was earnest, and perhaps even necessary. But it did little to resolve the growing contradiction between American words and deeds. As Southeast Asia adapts to a world of fragmented power and weaponised trade, it is increasingly clear that hedging is not a fallback — it is a forward strategy. Whether Trump will attend the ASEAN-US Summit in October remains to be seen. But unless Washington learns to match its strategic promises with economic predictability, it risks becoming a guest in a region where it once claimed leadership.
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Joanne Lin is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.