The Egyptian Army primarily relies on U.S. military equipment such as the American-made M1 Abrams battle tank
The situation is worsened by the weakness of the Egyptian military and its war readiness. Even though the Egyptian army is large
with 440,000 active service members and an additional 480,000
reservists, and the regime has engaged in a large arms spending spree -
Egypt was ranked the third largest importer
of weapons between 2014-18 - there are good reasons to believe that its
military faces deep structural weaknesses. The most obvious is its
heavy reliance on American arms. The U.S. has continued to provide USD$ 1.3 billion worth of military aid annually since 1979. A cursory look at the composition
of the Egyptian air force is telling, with 168 out of 338 fighter jets
being the American made F-16, with a clear preference for western-made
arms. This makes a direct conflict almost untenable, considering that
the United States will inevitably side with Israel, creating massive
issues in weapons maintenance, replacement and ammunition replenishment.
This is coupled with an unsophisticated indigenous weapons industry
that is leagues behind its regional counterparts, most notably Turkey
and even sanctioned Iran. Finally comes the statement
made by Yezid Sayigh, the prominent expert on Arab militaries,
regarding the Egyptian military. He relayed the view that U.S. officers
responsible for U.S.-Egyptian relations do not consider it to be an
effective fighting force. This is attributable to the increasing role of
the military in the economy, which distracts from its primary purpose,
and the top-heavy command structure with around 15,000 active Generals.
The situation on the diplomatic front is slightly better, although
the regime remains firmly in the U.S. orbit, greatly diminishing any
room for manoeuvre. Even though Egypt is attempting to deepen its ties
to China, it is far from being close enough to substitute China for the
U.S.. For example, Egypt joined
the BRICS in January 2024 in an attempt to cement its relationship with
China and Russia. Between 2017 and 2022 the level of Chinese investment
in Egypt increased by 317%, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. In May, the Egyptian military conducted
joint military exercises with its Chinese counterpart. These
manoeuvres, however, are not enough to replace the U.S. as its main arms
supplier and most importantly, guarantor of the continued supply of
capital flows necessary to keep the regime afloat, either from the IMF,
international markets, or regional powers. One of the lessons of the war
with Iran, is that while Israel has direct material support from the
U.S., the close relationship between Iran and China/Russia did not afford access to the same level of support.
In essence, Egypt under El-Sisi has become a lame duck. Partially due
to historical heavy reliance on the U.S., but the process has
accelerated due to the regime's singled-minded focus on power
consolidation and wealth accumulation. The economy is straddled with
debt and the military is primarily concerned with regime maintenance
against the domestic political opposition, rather than focusing on
matters of national security. This leaves the regime with no choice but
to submit to the whims of Israel as it builds concentration camps in
Gaza and continues its plans for ethnic cleansing under U.S. patronage.
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