[Salon] A state looking to be conquered



A state looking to be conquered

Summary: Egypt is severely weakened economically, militarily, and diplomatically, rendering it unable to counterbalance Israeli aggression in the region. This diminished capacity is attributable to Egypt's significant debt, reliance on U.S. military aid, and a foreign policy still largely within the American orbit.

We thank our regular contributor Maged Mandour for today’s newsletter. Maged is a political analyst who also contributes to Middle East Eye and Open Democracy. He is a writer for Sada, the Carnegie Endowment online journal and the author of the recently published and highly recommended Egypt under El-Sisi (I.B.Tauris) which examines social and political developments since the coup of 2013. You can find Maged’s most recent AD podcast here.

The Middle East, a region of the world that is known for its frequent wars and neo-colonial adventures has become an even more dangerous place. The Hamas attack of the 7th of October has unleashed a wave of unprecedented violence, driven by Israeli grand colonial delusions of eliminating all foes in one swoop, buttressed by unwavering American support and broad European acquiesce. From the genocide and growing famine in Gaza, to attacks on Syria, and the 12-day war with Iran, Israeli aggression seems to know no bounds. This raises a question about the ability of Egypt, the largest Arab State with the largest army to act as a counterbalance to Israeli aggression. After more than a decade in power, does the regime have the clout to deter Israel and act decisively to stop a destabilising genocide next door? The answer seems to be a clear no, if one looks at the severely weakened position of Egypt on all fronts, the economic, military and diplomatic.

Egypt’s most obvious weakness is economic. The budget is laden with debt, with 84% of the state revenues consumed by debt servicing during the last 10 months of the fiscal year. The trend continues in the new budget, with 87% of the tax revenue used to meet debt obligations, and 58% of new debt issued used to meet existing debt obligations. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the Egyptian economy can finance a prolonged military operation without substantial external funding. However, the economy is already loaded with an external debt estimated at USD$155 billion as of last February, a USD$2.3 billion increase over three months. These pressures are compounded by the relatively small size of the Egyptian economy compared to its Israeli counterpart, which amounts to an estimated USD$389 billion, compared to Israel’s USD$540 billion by the end of 2024. Considering the difference in the population size between the two countries, this crude GDP comparison is striking. This economic weakness is compounded by Egyptian energy dependence on Israel, with Israeli gas accounting for 60% of Egyptian imports. Cuts in Israeli gas imports have already caused mass disruption and blackouts. This dire economic situation severely reduces the ability of the regime to apply pressure on Israel and makes a traditional military conformation extremely unlikely and possibly one sided.


The Egyptian Army primarily relies on U.S. military equipment such as the American-made M1 Abrams battle tank

The situation is worsened by the weakness of the Egyptian military and its war readiness. Even though the Egyptian army is large with 440,000 active service members and an additional 480,000 reservists, and the regime has engaged in a large arms spending spree - Egypt was ranked the third largest importer of weapons between 2014-18 - there are good reasons to believe that its military faces deep structural weaknesses. The most obvious is its heavy reliance on American arms. The U.S. has continued to provide USD$ 1.3 billion worth of military aid annually since 1979. A cursory look at the composition of the Egyptian air force is telling, with 168 out of 338 fighter jets being the American made F-16, with a clear preference for western-made arms. This makes a direct conflict almost untenable, considering that the United States will inevitably side with Israel, creating massive issues in weapons maintenance, replacement and ammunition replenishment. This is coupled with an unsophisticated indigenous weapons industry that is leagues behind its regional counterparts, most notably Turkey and even sanctioned Iran. Finally comes the statement made by Yezid Sayigh, the prominent expert on Arab militaries, regarding the Egyptian military. He relayed the view that U.S. officers responsible for U.S.-Egyptian relations do not consider it to be an effective fighting force. This is attributable to the increasing role of the military in the economy, which distracts from its primary purpose, and the top-heavy command structure with around 15,000 active Generals.

The situation on the diplomatic front is slightly better, although the regime remains firmly in the U.S. orbit, greatly diminishing any room for manoeuvre. Even though Egypt is attempting to deepen its ties to China, it is far from being close enough to substitute China for the U.S.. For example, Egypt joined the BRICS in January 2024 in an attempt to cement its relationship with China and Russia. Between 2017 and 2022 the level of Chinese investment in Egypt increased by 317%, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector. In May, the Egyptian military conducted joint military exercises with its Chinese counterpart. These manoeuvres, however, are not enough to replace the U.S. as its main arms supplier and most importantly, guarantor of the continued supply of capital flows necessary to keep the regime afloat, either from the IMF, international markets, or regional powers. One of the lessons of the war with Iran, is that while Israel has direct material support from the U.S., the close relationship between Iran and China/Russia did not afford access to the same level of support.

In essence, Egypt under El-Sisi has become a lame duck. Partially due to historical heavy reliance on the U.S., but the process has accelerated due to the regime's singled-minded focus on power consolidation and wealth accumulation. The economy is straddled with debt and the military is primarily concerned with regime maintenance against the domestic political opposition, rather than focusing on matters of national security. This leaves the regime with no choice but to submit to the whims of Israel as it builds concentration camps in Gaza and continues its plans for ethnic cleansing under U.S. patronage.

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