Japan ruling coalition routed by upstarts: key election takeaways
PM Ishiba will fight to stay on as opposition shoots for forming a rival coalition
TOKYO -- Japan's ruling coalition lost its upper house majority in an election on Sunday -- after having suffered a similar lower house defeat in October -- but Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made clear his intention to go on leading the government.
Here are some key takeaways from Sunday's election.
Traditional parties out, new parties in
Of the 125 upper house seats up for election, the ruling coalition won 47, versus the opposition's 78. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party lost 13 seats while its coalition partner, Komeito, gave up six.
The chamber has a total of 248 seats.
Including the coalition's 75 seats that were not up for reelection, the bloc's upper house presence is down to 122 from 141, three seats short of a majority.
Ahead of the election, inflation and immigration became hot-button issues. As for inflation-fighting measures, the LDP promised cash handouts of 20,000 yen per person. Voters considered the measure to be lacking compared to pledges by opposition parties to lower gas and diesel levies, and reduce or eliminate the consumption tax.
The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the center-left main opposition, held on to the seats it had up for grabs, while the right-wing "Japanese first' upstart Sanseito gained 13. The center-right Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) also gained 13.
While campaigning, the DPFP and Sanseito skillfully utilized social media to appeal directly to the younger generations.
Youth revolt
Exit polls suggest a clear divide in voting patterns between generations.
For proportional representation seats, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party gained the most votes among those over the age of 50, while the age groups below chose opposition parties.
The two parties that leapt in the polls -- the center-right DPFP and the right-wing populist Sanseito -- were the clear beneficiaries of young Japanese shunning the legacy parties, the LDP and the CDP.
The CDP has its roots in the Democratic Party of Japan -- the main opposition in the late 1990s up to the mid-2010s and the party in power from 2009 to 2012.
The LDP's highest support rate was among voters at 70 and older, but that voter bracket was also a sizable supporter of the CDP.
Sanseito, which advocates a "Japanese first" stance, received strong backing from those in their 40s and 50s. These voters are part of the so-called lost generation, a cohort that entered the workforce between 1993 and 2004, a period when Japan's job market all but froze. Shut out of Japan's lifetime employment tradition, many ended up as part-timers and freelancers. The party's message resonated with them.
Fragmented parliament
While the ruling coalition lost its majority, the LDP remains the largest political force with a total of 101 seats. "We must understand the responsibility as the leading party and the one we have to fulfill for the nation," Ishiba said.
Ishiba also signaled his intention to keep his position after the election, saying, "I am keenly aware of [my] responsibilities."
But CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda stressed that Ishiba has been further weakened. "This time," he said Sunday night, "the public has clearly said 'No' to Ishiba's administration."
Added DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, "I think the background to the harsh evaluation for [Ishiba's] administration is insufficient measures against rising costs."
He was critical of the LDP, saying it "disregarded" an agreement with his party to significantly increase the minimum level of tax-exempt income.
"We will steadily implement policies to increase take-home pay," Tamaki said, adding, "We will never cooperate with Ishiba's administration, which doesn't keep its promises."
Said Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya: "Our top priorities are tax reductions and proactive fiscal policy. ... The second priority is immigration issues. We said 'No' to purchases of land and companies [in Japan] by foreigners, and accepting foreigners as cheap labor."
The Sanseito will consider whether to work with the ruling coalition on an issue-by-issue basis, Kamiya said, adding that the party's goal is to win 50 to 60 seats in the next lower house election and form a coalition government.
Horse trading to begin
Ishiba indicated his intention to keep his current position, citing the ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S.
However, lacking a majority in both houses of the Diet will prevent the ruling camp from passing bills and budget proposals on its own; it will need the cooperation of an opposition party on each policy initiative.
For Ishiba, getting his own LDP members lined up behind him could be a challenge now that he has lost two national elections in a row. LDP lawmakers could force him to step down as party leader, which would ignite a race to succeed him.
Opposition parties, meanwhile, are working to cobble together a partnership that could rival any LDP-led alliance.
Said Noda, the center-left CDP leader and a former prime minister, "Opposition parties thoroughly discuss what we can do by working together ... [and] will engage in sincere dialogue to develop visions for the next administration with refining the details of what we can do."