HERE COMES MORE WAR /Trump's not listening to Putin - Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques BaudTherefore, Russia may seek a natural stopping point (possibly the Dnipro River), but not full occupation of Ukraine.
Col Baud outlines the two core conditions Russia demands before any ceasefire or negotiations with Ukraine can begin: Ukraine must withdraw its forces from four regions Russia claims (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). Ukraine must formally abandon its ambition to join NATO. These conditions are consistent with Russia's long-declared war aims: "Denazification": framed as protecting Russian-speaking populations from Ukrainian laws allegedly discriminating against them (e.g., July 2021 law). "Demilitarization": tied to Ukraine dropping NATO ambitions. The speaker criticizes the West and U.S. figures (like Trump) for failing to acknowledge these conditions and instead promoting a ceasefire without addressing Russia’s terms—something Moscow rejects outright. Key Points: Putin’s position hasn’t changed since early 2022. Russia wants negotiations, but only if those two major demands are met. Western leaders conflate “ceasefire” with “peace,” while Russia sees a ceasefire as meaningless unless part of a political settlement. Western attempts at diplomacy ignore Russia's stated goals, making negotiation efforts futile. On the ground, Russia is advancing militarily, grinding down Ukrainian forces daily. Russia’s likely territorial ambition is limited to areas it calls "Novorossiya" (southeast Ukraine, incl. Odessa, Mykolaiv), but not western Ukraine, which it views as deeply anti-Russian. Historical CIA maps from the 1950s are cited as evidence that western Ukraine has long been considered strongly nationalist and hostile to Russian control—something even today's Russian leadership acknowledges. Therefore, Russia may seek a natural stopping point (possibly the Dnipro River), but not full occupation of Ukraine. Conclusion: The failure of Western leaders to engage with Russia’s actual stated demands—combined with Russia’s military momentum—has created a diplomatic stalemate. While Ukraine and the West push for a short-term ceasefire, Russia insists that only a broader political settlement will stop the war. You're currently a free subscriber to Daniel Davis Deep Dive. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |