IN THIS NEWSLETTER: I compare public support for Israel’s actions in Gaza with last week’s Senate votes on arms sales to Israel.
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*Latest VIP content: How senators voted on last week’s resolutions to block arms sales to Israel versus how much each accepted from pro-Israel groups last election cycle. Read more here.
Vote results
The President has the authority to sell weapons to other countries, but Congress can block arms sales by passing a joint resolution of disapproval. On Wednesday, the Senate voted on two such resolutions introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders to block two Trump-approved arms sales to Israel.
Both failed, allowing the sales to go through. The two resolutions are listed below. Each includes a link to the Senate roll call vote, a brief description of the arms sale, and an example of how the weapon in the sale has been used in Gaza since October 2023.
S.J.Res.34 (roll call), to block a $676 million sale of 1,000-pound MK-83 bombs to Israel
January 18, 2024: An Israeli airstrike struck a residential compound housing staff from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) in Al-Mawasi, an Israeli-designated safe zone. The blast injured several workers and severely damaged the building. As a result, six emergency medical workers had to leave their posts, and IRC and MAP surgeons suspended their work at Nasser Hospital. Forensic evidence suggests the munition used in the attack was a U.S.-made 1,000-pound MK-83 bomb, reportedly dropped by a U.S.-made F-16 aircraft. A month before the strike, the Israeli military explicitly reassured aid staff through text messages that they were safe. “We’re aware of the location” of the compound, a message from an IDF official read. The MAP employee then clarified whether the building was still safe. “Yes,” replied the IDF official. (That was an excerpt from this article, in which I compiled 14 incidents where aid workers in Gaza were attacked by Israeli forces after sharing their location with the IDF).
S.J.Res.41 (roll call), to block a $24 million sale of 20,000 assault rifles to Israel
June 8, 2024: Israeli forces broke into the house of Rasha Matar and shot her sons Yamen, 12, and Mu’men, 15, killing Yamen and paralyzing Mu’men. Israeli military and police didn’t offer a justification for the operation or answer any questions from the New York Times. Video from the Israeli military shows Israeli police and special forces breaking into the home, carrying M4A1 rifles. Spent brass photographed in the home match this rifle’s caliber. Matar’s testimony is here.
The controversy around the latter sale involves the West Bank. The rifles are nominally for the Israeli police, but actually for arming Israeli settlers. The shipment was initially paused in December 2023 for that reason. Here’s a timeline of the sale:
Summer 2023: Israeli settlers carry out pogroms all across the West Bank, making 2023 the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since OCHA began tracking casualties in 2005.
Early October 2023: Israel requests 20,000 M4A1 rifles from the US.
October 2023: Israel’s far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who oversees the police, promises to provide tens of thousands of rifles to the illegal Israeli settlements, and posts photos of himself handing out rifles to civilians.
Late October 2023: Biden green lights the rifle sale and notifies Congress.
November 2023: Congressional foreign affairs committees approve the sale.
December 2023: Media reports that Biden had paused the sale out of concern that Israeli police would transfer the rifles to extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
May 2024: Pentagon awards a $26.7 million contract to Colt Manufacturing to supply Israel with M4A1 rifles.
March 2025: Trump advances the sale.
Early July 2025: Ben-Gvir launches a new police unit of armed settlers. “These squads represent a departure from the ‘defensive mindset’ and towards a combative, militant and offensive mindset,” said Ben-Gvir, who himself resides in Kiryat Arba, an illegal settlement.
Late July 2025: Senate fails to stop the sale.
August 2025: Since October 7, 2023, Israeli forces and settlers have killed more than 1,000 Palestinians and wounded over 9,500 in the West Bank. Settler violence has increased every year since 2017.
The votes against this resolution are worth the same and theoretically warrant equal criticism. That said, some opposing votes are more annoying than others.
November 2023: Cory Booker (D-NJ) sends a letter to the Biden administration urging the president to prioritize “ending settler violence,” expressing concern that “extreme members of the Israeli governing coalition may be…inciting violence in the West Bank, including by reportedly distributing rifles to civilians, including to settlers,” and warning that US-provided rifles “could fall into the wrong hands.”
July 2025: Booker votes to allow 20,000 US-made assault rifles to go to Israeli police, which is overseen by an extremist settler who was convicted of supporting a terrorist organization and inciting racism, who created a settler militia to attack Palestinians, and who is calling for the annexation of the West Bank.
Which party is more out of step with its base on Gaza?
A new poll shows that 60% of voters disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza, while only 32% approve. The poll came out a day before the Senate voted on Sanders’ resolutions.
I compared the public polling data to the Senate votes on the resolution of disapproval for the sale of 1,000-pound bombs (S.J.Res.34). Considering the relevance of the weapon and the stakes involved, voting against the resolution is a clear sign of approval of Israel’s behavior: the bombs in question help sustain Israel’s historically violent and indiscriminate bombing campaign in Gaza, the US’s unconditional provision of weapons enables Israel’s actions in Gaza, and Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to genocide.
The table below compares approval and disapproval of Israel’s actions between voters and senators, broken down by party.
For Democrats, approval of Israel’s actions in Gaza is 35 percentage points higher in the Senate than it should be: 43% of Senate Democrats approve, while only 8% of Democratic voters do.
For Republicans, 100% of GOP senators voted to approve the arms sale, which is 29 percentage points higher than the share of Republican voters who approve of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Disapproval is 22 points lower among Senate Republicans than it should be.
The voters column doesn’t add up to 100% for either party because some survey respondents didn’t answer the question. Likewise, three Senate Democrats skipped the votes: Elissa Slotkin, Ruben Gallego, and Mark Kelly.
^Both parties are out of step with their base on Gaza. Especially Democrats. This table compares approval and disapproval ratings of Israel’s actions in Gaza between Democrat and Republican senators and voters. For Democrats, approval is 35 percentage points higher in the Senate than it is among the voter base, while disapproval is 32 points lower. For Republicans, approval is 29 points higher and disapproval is 22 points lower. Difference = Senators % minus Voters %. Senators % reflect votes on S.J.Res.34 (30 July 2025). Voters % from Gallup poll on Israel’s actions in Gaza (29 July 2025).
Am I reading too far into these skipped votes?
Slotkin and Gallego are rising stars in the Democratic Party — or at least party leadership desperately want them to be — and Kelly was among the shortlisted candidates to be Kamala Harris’s running mate. That should give you an idea of where they stand ideologically. All three senators voted against the disapproval resolutions Sanders introduced in April to block arms sales to Israel. All three also voted to send a record amount of military aid to Israel in April 2024.
This background suggests Slotkin, Gallego, and Kelly preferred to vote against Sanders’ resolutions last week (with the Israel lobby undoubtedly providing extra encouragement), but didn’t.
I think this speaks to an ongoing, fundamental change. On the issue of Israel and Palestine, the Israel lobby no longer has a monopoly over politicians’ fears. If you’re a Democratic politician, you’ll now be punished politically if you fail to recognize Palestinians as people with human rights or if you vote for policies that violate them. To be sure, you’ll still get punched by the Israel lobby for treating human rights as universal, but that’s always been the case. What’s new is the fear of popular blowback from doing the lobby’s bidding.
Some establishment Democrats will insist that calls to end the genocide are only coming from a small group of leftists. But deep down, they know the calls are coming from inside the house: more than 8 in 10 Democratic voters oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza. How many of those 8.3 voters are leftists? Two? Fewer than 1 in 10 Democratic voters support Israel’s actions. For party leadership, this is a nightmare. For the overwhelming majority of its voters, the real nightmare is in Gaza.
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-Stephen (Follow me on Instagram, Twitter, and Bluesky)