The Egyptian-Arab Reconstruction Plan for Gaza Is Now Competing With Israel's Plan to Conquer It - Middle East News - Haaretz.com
It seems there isn't a less relevant question than the one that asks "how much will it cost to rebuild Gaza," but that is the question that was presented to Samir Hulileh, and he has an orderly answer.
The 68-year-old, who has served as the chairman of the Palestine Securities Exchange and the Palestine Development and Investment Company, among other positions, isn't just another businessman or professional observer who is being asked to express his opinion regarding the "day after" in Gaza.
He is expected to be part of that "day after" himself.
Hulileh says that he has been selected by the U.S. government to be the governor of the Gaza Strip for "the day after" and that, even during Joe Biden's presidency almost a year ago, he was contacted by government "contractors" who were screening relevant candidates for the position.
The person who actually rejected Hulileh's candidacy was Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who also removed him from chairmanship of the Palestinian Securities Exchange. It doesn't seem to be anything personal. So far, Abbas has systematically rejected any plan that might deprive the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization of exclusive administration of the Gaza Strip, or a plan that could be interpreted as separating the two regions of Palestine and maintaining the separation between the West Bank and the Strip.
Mahmoud Abbas on a visit to Lebanon this year.Credit: Hassan Ammar/AP
When Hulileh was asked in an interview on the UAE television station Al-Mashhad about the cost of rebuilding Gaza, he mentioned that in February, the World Bank had estimated the reconstruction costs at $53 billion – "but since then, the Strip has suffered major destruction caused by Israel, and it appears that the real amount is about $60 billion."
Hulileh, who isn't deterred by such a sum, noted that the World Bank based its estimate on costs that are customary in the West, whereas the costs in Gaza would be expected to be substantially lower, mainly due to the lower cost of labor. When asked how long reconstruction would take, he cited an example from Egypt, which managed to build entire cities in three to five years. As he sees it, the reconstruction of Gaza is the most relevant and most practical question that there is.
Hulileh's publicized "appointment" as governor isn't similar to Israel's futile efforts to recruit the heads of clans in Gaza – "dignitaries" or "associates" – to build militias on its behalf and to govern the Strip. The reporting about Hulileh's appointment and American and Arab support for him are important in and of themselves, whether the appointment happens or not. It delineates the boundaries of the two parallel worlds between which Gaza teeters.
In one, Israel is making preparations to occupy Gaza City, and later perhaps the entire Strip, and is spreading reports of negotiations with countries that will absorb two million Gazans who will be expelled "voluntarily." In the other, there are intensive efforts underway in Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States aimed at containing the Israeli threat through a Palestinian-Arab alternative, both civilian and military, that would administer the Gaza Strip.
Israeli soldiers work on tanks near the border with Gaza in Israel this week.Credit: Amir Cohen/REUTERS
This past week, another Egyptian effort was made to draft a realistic roadmap that would try to stop the war with a plan that would be acceptable to the U.S., Israel, and Hamas, and would be coordinated with Mahmoud Abbas. A Hamas delegation headed by Khalil al-Hayya, who replaced Yahya Sinwar as head of Hamas' political bureau in Gaza and who has been conducting the negotiations for the release of the hostages, arrived in Cairo on Wednesday and met with the Egyptian intelligence chief, Hassan Rashad, to examine the prospects for implementing the plan.
Al-Hayya stated publicly that the goal of the meeting was to draft terms for a permanent cease-fire, that is, to end the war and to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza. According to Egyptian sources, the goal is more ambitious, and includes discussion of a 'broad" plan that would include disarming Hamas and handing its weapons to the PA, establishing a temporary six-month management body to replace Hamas in the Gaza Strip and launching operations to restore civilian infrastructure.
This is not a new plan. In March, Egypt presented a document detailing the steps of this plan, which was quickly put together to thwart the threat of mass transfers and U.S. President Donald Trump's vision for a Gazan "Riviera." Since then, in the face of strong Arab and international opposition to the initiative, Trump has "agreed" to hear other ideas.
Recently, despite what appears to be giving Israel the green light to do as it pleases in Gaza, the president has been inclined to accept some of these ideas. That, at any rate, was the impression given to Egyptian sources who were in contact with U.S. colleagues during the conference on a two-state solution convened by Saudi Arabia and France at the UN in June.
Egypt, in coordination with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and recently also Turkey, which joined the "working group" against Hamas, has expanded the scope of the original plan, which focused mainly on the civilian aspects. The plan now includes a demand for Hamas to disarm and transfer its weapons to the PA, a halt to the production and smuggling of weapons into Gaza, and an agreement to exile Hamas commanders from Gaza.
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Conditional to the agreement on disarmament and a cease-fire, Israel would begin withdrawing from the Strip in stages in a process that would be overseen by the United States and Arab countries. The goal is to reach a "comprehensive deal" in which all the hostages, as well as the Palestinian prisoners demanded by Hamas, would be released, and the principles for future management of Gaza would be agreed upon. According to Arab media reports, if such an agreement is reached, President Abbas is expected to travel to Cairo this coming Sunday.
Although the Egyptian proposal has not yet matured into an agreed-upon plan, the Egyptians are already presenting it as a realistic outline. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has even reported that, in coordination with Jordan, Egypt has begun training 5,000 Palestinian police to maintain internal security after a cease-fire takes effect. Abdelatty also said there is already a list of "technocrats" and administrators who will form an initial civil administrative council, and that Egypt is not opposed to the deployment of international forces in Gaza "to help the Palestinian Authority enforce its sovereignty."
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in Cairo this week.Credit: AFP/KHALED DESOUKI
However, it is not yet known which countries would agree to participate in such a multinational force, under what authority it would function, and what its mandate would be. What is not in doubt is that the conditions for a multinational force to enter Gaza are an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal to agreed-upon areas.
Partial Trump support
Even the "governor-designate", Hulileh, has reservations about the framework of the Egyptian plan, but he points out what he says is an important change in the U.S. position. "If in February, President Trump declared that American forces wouldn't be involved in administering Gaza, now he's talking about some kind of patronage on the part of the Sixth Fleet to the multinational force that will be in Gaza," he said.
And that's in addition to a change in the president's stance on the nature of a deal. After advancing and cultivating partial agreements and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff's plan, Trump is talking about a comprehensive deal, as is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, a comprehensive deal does not only mean the release of all the hostages at once and an end to the war – it requires consensus on the implementation of a plan for the control and administration of the Strip, and not by Israel. Hulileh is conditioning his readiness to take the role of governor on two conditions: the delineation of Gaza's borders, that is, where local forces would control with the assistance of a multinational force, and securing financing for reconstruction.
The assumption is that the required funding will be found in the coffers of the Gulf states and Western countries. The main pitfall lies in marking the borders of the Strip, which requires the consent of Israel, the PA and Hamas, who are moving along parallel paths that at the moment don't look like they can meet.
A Turkish source close to the discussions that Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is holding with Hamas representatives told Haaretz that the joint effort by Turkey, Egypt and Qatar is aimed at convincing Hamas to announce its agreement to disarm as part of the deal, and not as a future vision dependent on the establishment of a Palestinian state. In a parallel channel that relies on Saudi involvement, they are working to convince the Trump administration to pressure Israel to agree to the plan and to drop its intentions to occupy the Strip.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Istanbul last month.Credit: Murad Sezer/Reuters
"I can't say at this stage that concrete agreements have been reached. We've understood from Hamas that it is prepared to give up any partnership in administering the Strip," said the source.
"As for disarming, there is still a great disparity. The puzzling thing is that so far, the American administration has not seen fit to begin talking to Mahmoud Abbas about the plan. It's clear to all parties that without the PA's participation, even partially or symbolically, this process can't come to fruition."
There is no great surprise there. Trump has, for the time being, committed to the Israeli position, which opposes the PA's participation in the administration of Gaza. At the same time, Abbas is insistent that only the PA should be the source of authority for any agreement on Gaza's future.
However, a senior official in Abbas' Fatah party, who was previously involved in Egyptian-mediated reconciliation talks between the PLO and Hamas, maintains that Abbas isn't left with many other options.
"We have two options," the senior Fatah official told Haaretz. "Adopting the Egyptian plan, even if the PA's role in it is minimal, or opposing it and being the ones who pave the way for Israel to occupy the Strip. That is a worthy national position, but it's also the approach that would lead to disengagement from Gaza."