US Sanctions on Russia Oil Trade Put on Back Burner
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
The Trump administration has shelved its threat to impose new sanctions and "secondary" tariffs on Russia and buyers of its oil exports, respectively, as diplomatic efforts shift toward broader discussions with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Zelenskiy and several European leaders gathered at the White House on Monday to present a united front for a meeting with US President Donald Trump, expressing optimism that the US will extend security guarantees to Kyiv as it presses for an end to the war in Ukraine.
Trump and Zelenskiy were joined in Washington by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The immediate goal of Monday's meeting, as outlined by Trump and senior administration officials, was to arrange a trilateral summit between Trump, Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the near future and to hammer out the details for Western security guarantees for Kyiv to ensure Moscow doesn’t attack again.
“President Putin agreed that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine. And this is one of the key points that we need to consider, and we’re going to be considering that at the table,” Trump said.
Monday's meeting came in the wake of Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15, after which Trump dropped his demand for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine in favor of Russia's preference that fighting be allowed to continue while a fuller peace deal is negotiated. The White House also sidelined the threat of new sanctions and secondary tariffs in the absence of an agreed-to ceasefire following Friday's brief summit.
On Monday, European leaders looked to put a ceasefire agreement back on the table as a prerequisite for trilateral peace talks to occur. "I can't imagine that the next meeting would took place without a ceasefire. So let's work on that and let's try to put pressure on Russia," Merz said at the White House.
Trump also emerged from his meeting with Putin seemingly open to a "land-for-peace" scenario, which would see Ukraine cede some of its eastern territory to Russia.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, wrote on social media that the European leaders in Washington have three main goals: gaining a better understanding of the details of possible US security guarantees, preparing for a possible trilateral meeting and pushing back against the idea of “land swaps.”
“More broadly, Europe's goal is to now push discussions in a direction that Putin will be forced to reject. This will create further opportunities for Europe to press Trump to impose stronger sanctions on Moscow,” he said.
Peacemaking Pivot
Trump’s shift to suing for a lasting peace deal over a temporary ceasefire agreement, as well as the walk-back of his threat to impose more sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its energy flows, takes some immediate economic pressure off the Kremlin and raises the stakes for Ukraine and European leaders.
Given the complexity of the issues involved, analysts say peace talks would likely take a long time and would now take place in the absence of credible US economic pressure on Moscow. There are also questions about how the Trump administration’s sanctions policy might evolve as trilateral peace talks take place or if those talks break down.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the rounds on Sunday political talk shows, arguing that fresh punitive economic measures against Moscow would undermine the US' exploratory talks to end the war in Ukraine.
“I don’t think new sanctions on Russia are going to force them to accept a ceasefire,” Rubio said on NBC’s Meet the Press, adding that sanctions to date have not altered the direction of the war.
Rubio didn’t rule out fresh punitive economic measures on Russia if talks break down but said that such a move would be counterproductive right now.
“The moment the president puts those additional sanctions [in place], that’s the end of the talks," he said on CBS’ Face the Nation. "You’ve basically locked in at least another year to year and a half of war and death and destruction."
Rubio said that both Ukraine and Russia would need to make concessions to end the war while tempering any expectations for a quick resolution.
“We made progress in the sense that we identified potential areas of agreement, but there remain some big areas of disagreement,” Rubio said on ABC’s This Week, referring to Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska. “So we’re still a long ways off. We are not at the precipice of a peace agreement. We are not at the edge of one. But I do think progress was made.”
Russian Reprieve
Trump and top US officials suggested for weeks that Washington could slam Russia’s teetering war economy with new sanctions on the country's energy trade as well as “secondary tariffs” on buyers of Russian crude.
Earlier this month, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on US imports from India over New Delhi's refusal to stop buying Russian oil. Those duties don't go into effect until Aug. 27, however, raising questions over whether they will now be lifted following Trump's meeting with Putin and as he continues to work on a framework trade deal with India.
Asked by Fox News' Sean Hannity in an interview immediately following the Alaska meeting if he was still considering targeting China with tariffs over its Russian oil purchases, Trump said, “Because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that now. I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now.”
In a sign of divergence with the EU, the bloc is planning to vote on a 19th sanctions package in September. In a statement following the Trump-Putin summit, the EU said it “will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy until there is a just and lasting peace.”
The last EU sanctions package on Russia approved included a dynamic mechanism to replace the current $60 per barrel G7 price cap. Under the new formula, the cap will be set 15% below the average market price of Russian crude over the previous three months, which would put it at about $47.60/bbl when the policy goes into effect next month.